TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Midterms · resolved market

Will a Democrat win Wisconsin US Senate Election?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$255,766
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$273,207

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $255,766 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 116 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xecaa…77a9backed Yes62c11,836$7,362 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,474.3915150.3%76 W · 75 L+0.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-17.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c51…827ebacked No0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101030%3 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-55.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8b7…ee3cbacked Yes74c7,638$5,617 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,020.717731.2%24 W · 53 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-47.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5cd5…ac33backed Yes69c6,992$4,849 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,142.15862.5%5 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick67cpaid-16.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed Yes76c6,453$4,874 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,579.038133.3%27 W · 54 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-31.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x629b…995abacked Yes68c5,645$3,858 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,7872638.5%10 W · 16 L-1.9wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-26.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8ce1…5f46backed Yes68c5,458$3,694 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,764.52580%4 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.22per pick58cpaid+15.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd1ac…08d5backed No22c5,000$1,095 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,095.173737.8%14 W · 23 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-31.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x477f…19aabacked Yes36c4,115$1,495 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,620.657639.5%30 W · 46 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-24.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8564…4b2ebacked No36c4,000$1,440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,4403013.3%4 W · 26 L-3.5wins-0.12per pick25cpaid-44.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x240e…e8aabacked Yes66c3,509$2,314 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,195.215100%5 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+36.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x708f…f236backed No26c3,482$920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$919.56911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.10per pick21cpaid-54.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa672…f083backed Yes54c3,300$1,785 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,5151457.1%8 W · 6 L+2.0wins+0.14per pick43cpaid+99.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd0ff…01c0backed No32c3,143$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick29cpaid-67.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd16…a2cdbacked No35c3,000$1,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,049.94850%4 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x777f…a1bbbacked No33c2,943$967 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$967.265326.4%14 W · 39 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick31cpaid-33.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf1fc…0ec1backed Yes77c2,712$2,088 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$623.791888.9%16 W · 2 L+3.7wins+0.21per pick68cpaid+18.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x35f8…852bbacked No69c2,481$1,716 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,716.3720%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc6cc…31fdbacked Yes76c2,254$1,716 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$537.43540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-43.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x68d8…8c3fbacked No45c2,250$1,017 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,017.5633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick29cpaid-8.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8a65…acf4backed No24c2,083$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5001442.9%6 W · 8 L+1.4wins+0.10per pick33cpaid+15.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4cc3…7552backed Yes70c2,037$1,425 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$611.984729.8%14 W · 33 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick29cpaid+4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd398…46d7backed No19c2,000$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3804936.7%18 W · 31 L+2.9wins+0.06per pick31cpaid+33.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xda08…72d4backed No32c2,000$640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6402850%14 W · 14 L+3.4wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+41.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6116…f247backed No19c2,000$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$380742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-44.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x4042…058fbacked No35c2,000$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$700450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-10.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe318…bc12backed No26c1,887$499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$498.51030%3 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-25.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdcc9…4534backed Yes78c1,731$1,346 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$385.041464.3%9 W · 5 L+1.6wins+0.12per pick53cpaid-12%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x182b…f022backed Yes77c1,641$1,262 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$378.924619.6%9 W · 37 L-2.9wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-58%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2370…0e10backed Yes69c1,613$1,106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$507.155824.1%14 W · 44 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick27cpaid+10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1004…2749backed No56c1,609$901 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$901.11540%2 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-6.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x086a…e5dcbacked Yes66c1,515$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$515.15250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-24.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d57…bfc5backed Yes69c1,287$894 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$392.941618.8%3 W · 13 L-1.9wins-0.12per pick31cpaid-73.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No32c1,242$399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$398.6316833.3%56 W · 112 L-8.5wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-26.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe4e5…3013backed Yes68c1,183$804 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$378.51475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.24per pick51cpaid+11.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x61d0…fca2backed Yes30c1,038$311 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$727.4560%3 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.21per pick39cpaid+64%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc910…5e8dbacked No22c1,006$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.331020%2 W · 8 L-1.5wins-0.15per pick35cpaid+19%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2158…fe65backed Yes78c1,001$781 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$220.351353.8%7 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.12per pick66cpaid-26.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed No34c1,000$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3405234.6%18 W · 34 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick35cpaid+0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1949…515ebacked Yes64c1,000$640 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$360771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.11per pick60cpaid-1.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa6d7…9db4backed Yes77c1,000$770 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.23per pick60cpaid+17.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6c2e…75eabacked Yes74c999$739 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2602231.8%7 W · 15 L-2.1wins-0.10per pick41cpaid-21.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xda2f…baccbacked No32c956.24$303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303.212528%7 W · 18 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-56%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad28…1601backed No78c900$705 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7053345.5%15 W · 18 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+21.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f8b…0159backed No19c796.54$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.662119%4 W · 17 L-2.7wins-0.13per pick32cpaid-71%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xaba7…a2cabacked Yes65c768.98$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$269.14580%4 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick72cpaid+11.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c60…67c1backed Yes78c750$587 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.461080%8 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick76cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x645e…d120backed Yes70c700$490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2101080%8 W · 2 L+2.9wins+0.29per pick51cpaid+37.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb6be…fcfebacked No36c605.56$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2183915.4%6 W · 33 L-2.2wins-0.06per pick21cpaid-25.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4bba…d81fbacked Yes69c575.81$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.811338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-44.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb236…1d5dbacked No31c510.2$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.861612.5%2 W · 14 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick17cpaid-39.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa68…94a7backed No31c500$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1551827.8%5 W · 13 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick34cpaid-45.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9fe0…f2a8backed No23c500$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115229.1%2 W · 20 L-2.6wins-0.12per pick21cpaid-69.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1cd0…e539backed Yes54c492.04$265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$227.421100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x581d…bdabbacked No25c437.8$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.451428.6%4 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-5.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3f3b…1d77backed No33c435.09$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.435433.3%18 W · 36 L+2.7wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-10.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x41eb…da1dbacked Yes45c425$191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$233.75633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-41.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f99…9b59backed Yes22c415$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3221233.3%4 W · 8 L+1.7wins+0.14per pick19cpaid-12.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa00f…8e56backed No17c400$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$664833.3%16 W · 32 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-8.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7120…201bbacked Yes75c400$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1001040%4 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.13per pick53cpaid-46.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5a1f…ec73backed Yes22c399$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$311.161050%5 W · 5 L+2.1wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+88.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x60eb…4949backed Yes5c365.79$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$347.51947.4%9 W · 10 L+2.2wins+0.12per pick36cpaid+95.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbc81…a6a5backed Yes70c338.44$237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.441735.3%6 W · 11 L-1.4wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-52.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdbc9…ac63backed Yes75c333.33$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.33540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-47.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2032…d577backed No58c319.94$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.364957.1%28 W · 21 L+5.6wins+0.11per pick46cpaid+32.6%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes12c311.36$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$274.6934129.3%100 W · 241 L-11.3wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-25.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Yes66c302$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.6811522.6%26 W · 89 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-42.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x27f0…896ebacked No55c298.81$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.35837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-41.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0275…c5e4backed No65c277.06$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180425%1 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.32per pick57cpaid-66.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x35f1…6600backed No28c258.59$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.151241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-36.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x188d…a981backed Yes65c222.69$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.94666.7%4 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick67cpaid-8.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x889e…09e0backed Yes71c205$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.452944.8%13 W · 16 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+35.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x996b…1e9cbacked No20c200$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40128.3%1 W · 11 L-1.5wins-0.13per pick21cpaid+4.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4294…ee29backed No34c200$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68560%3 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-12.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x42c5…34ecbacked No23c173.91$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40520%1 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-62.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x94e4…b7cfbacked No35c173.89$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.07540%2 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick34cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ee8…1b93backed Yes65c153.85$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.852040%8 W · 12 L-3.1wins-0.15per pick55cpaid-45%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xcdbf…1926backed Yes79c150$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.527222.1%60 W · 212 L-15.0wins-0.06per pick28cpaid-44.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3827…9168backed Yes69c144.93$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.931100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa7dd…1e23backed No35c142.86$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5040%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ac9…cf1abacked Yes75c135$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.75540%2 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.18per pick58cpaid-47.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa92c…c620backed Yes11c134.58$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.58666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.7wins+0.29per pick38cpaid+131.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc49f…f79dbacked No37c134.05$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501421.4%3 W · 11 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick29cpaid-31.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2a71…954bbacked Yes72c131$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.68911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-84.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3098…568abacked Yes71c113.44$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.9475%3 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick71cpaid+10.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x96c4…bfdebacked Yes14c107.03$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.05366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.49per pick18cpaid+228.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6444…0af5backed Yes75c106.67$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.67366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick77cpaid-13.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x53c0…f74dbacked Yes70c100$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30911.1%1 W · 8 L-2.6wins-0.29per pick40cpaid-84.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x4da8…99bcbacked No50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5030%0 W · 3 L-1.7wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2e63…399abacked Yes44c100$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$562138.1%8 W · 13 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick32cpaid+6.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd641…3350backed Yes25c75$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.51728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x98d0…f14abacked Yes52c72.55$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.8214356.6%81 W · 62 L+18.5wins+0.13per pick44cpaid+19.1%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x98e7…0a64backed No28c71.74$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201625%4 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick27cpaid+29.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x73e3…ca27backed Yes70c71.43$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.43250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-28.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3978…2f24backed Yes36c70$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.72347.8%11 W · 12 L+2.1wins+0.09per pick39cpaid+8.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x79d2…61cebacked Yes72c58.39$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.391369.2%9 W · 4 L+0.1wins0.00per pick69cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8360…802cbacked Yes70c55$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.5250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.15per pick36cpaid-28.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x92a3…4a7dbacked Yes66c53.03$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.031758.8%10 W · 7 L+1.5wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+23.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x041b…8d23backed Yes65c51.46$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.01540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-43%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x87a1…bdd4backed Yes75c50$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.5450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+35.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.