Us Midterms · resolved market
Will a Republican win Wisconsin US Senate Election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x352ac53453f995e751d2d90c7d781441eba9d1c4c7ebbc8e738fc570a543665b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $444,672
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $406,791
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $444,672 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 214 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6c51…827ebacked Yes | 4c | 20,000$738 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$738 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8564…4b2ebacked Yes | 26c | 15,595$4,003 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,003.15 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | -3.5wins | -0.12per pick | 25cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 20c | 10,865$2,208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,207.84 | 81 | 33.3%27 W · 54 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc64d…a1c9backed Yes | 31c | 10,671$3,328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,327.7 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc200…3c75backed Yes | 20c | 10,107$2,021 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,021.3 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86a2…be38backed Yes | 18c | 9,510$1,756 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,756.4 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf596…8c31backed Yes | 35c | 9,309$3,227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,227.25 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68d8…8c3fbacked Yes | 30c | 9,000$2,665 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,664.87 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…19aabacked No | 40c | 8,367$3,331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,035.78 | 76 | 39.5%30 W · 46 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2168…30f4backed Yes | 58c | 8,177$4,711 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,711.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed No | 49c | 8,114$3,956 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,158.18 | 151 | 50.3%76 W · 75 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa672…f083backed No | 30c | 6,757$2,043 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,714.5 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +99.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x45d9…f84bbacked Yes | 23c | 6,705$1,539 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,539.2 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +3.5wins | +0.17per pick | 38cpaid | +63.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5ba1…1171backed Yes | 27c | 6,464$1,738 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,737.99 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8740…e390backed Yes | 31c | 6,321$1,947 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,946.83 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed Yes | 32c | 6,301$1,993 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,993.04 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | +5.6wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x651d…6f4dbacked Yes | 40c | 6,000$2,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,400 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1004…2749backed Yes | 70c | 5,422$3,795 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,795.34 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76c4…bbc5backed Yes | 23c | 4,476$1,018 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,017.84 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce1…5f46backed No | 65c | 3,862$2,516 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,345.83 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x182b…f022backed Yes | 22c | 3,632$797 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$797.47 | 46 | 19.6%9 W · 37 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -58%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 30c | 3,552$1,070 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,070.11 | 58 | 24.1%14 W · 44 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69e7…d3b0backed No | 26c | 3,253$839 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,414.2 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | +6.8wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +103%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x78fa…f440backed Yes | 79c | 3,209$2,539 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,539 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7371…0ce4backed Yes | 20c | 3,175$642 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$641.75 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9aff…b3a6backed Yes | 75c | 2,745$2,058 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,058.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b7…ee3cbacked Yes | 28c | 2,575$711 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$710.91 | 77 | 31.2%24 W · 53 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35f8…852bbacked Yes | 55c | 2,500$1,365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,365 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x88b5…205cbacked No | 68c | 2,385$1,622 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$763.28 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda08…72d4backed Yes | 30c | 2,175$662 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$661.83 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +3.4wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc9…4534backed No | 76c | 2,169$1,642 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$526.99 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98e7…0a64backed Yes | 51c | 2,040$1,037 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,037.06 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes | 36c | 2,023$722 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$722.35 | 53 | 26.4%14 W · 39 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7789…f823backed No | 70c | 2,000$1,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600 | 49 | 8.2%4 W · 45 L | -4.4wins | -0.09per pick | 17cpaid | -84.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 67c | 1,968$1,319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$648.37 | 168 | 33.3%56 W · 112 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c4…55cfbacked Yes | 58c | 1,927$1,110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,109.76 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b80…cdf9backed Yes | 21c | 1,761$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc462…5e7abacked No | 74c | 1,673$1,237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$436.03 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa492…d2fdbacked Yes | 25c | 1,623$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52c9…b216backed Yes | 56c | 1,621$908 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$907.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c76…ded5backed Yes | 15c | 1,519$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.58 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +65.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba68…ce61backed No | 70c | 1,500$1,050 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59fd…e030backed Yes | 23c | 1,500$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.78 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Yes | 36c | 1,475$531 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$531 | 39 | 15.4%6 W · 33 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a7d…0adbbacked Yes | 35c | 1,436$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1fc…0ec1backed No | 78c | 1,427$1,113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.94 | 18 | 88.9%16 W · 2 L | +3.7wins | +0.21per pick | 68cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6d57…bfc5backed No | 69c | 1,419$979 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440.04 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 31cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x969d…2de2backed Yes | 36c | 1,389$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f5a…ed52backed Yes | 18c | 1,350$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8f3…3d8abacked Yes | 22c | 1,301$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.78 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +2.4wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +64%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8a6a…e3b1backed Yes | 19c | 1,284$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 14cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8f0…fd07backed Yes | 80c | 1,254$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.5wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52e9…67c3backed Yes | 23c | 1,217$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65e4…2420backed Yes | 21c | 1,215$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc910…5e8dbacked Yes | 36c | 1,205$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$431.75 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad28…1601backed Yes | 76c | 1,200$916 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$916 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f36…f6bebacked Yes | 17c | 1,159$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.09 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8628…27c2backed Yes | 26c | 1,144$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +41%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f1…bb92backed No | 39c | 1,090$425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$664.75 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f91…907fbacked Yes | 15c | 1,080$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 20c | 1,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd9…f91abacked Yes | 30c | 1,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3989…27b1backed Yes | 21c | 1,000$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -3.7wins | -0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2365…8eb9backed No | 8c | 1,000$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$920 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +4.2wins | +0.18per pick | 20cpaid | +104.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x91cf…5e23backed Yes | 70c | 958.2$671 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$670.74 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x438d…a7d6backed Yes | 59c | 946.85$554 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$554.35 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe274…ee86backed Yes | 19c | 944$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.36 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 21c | 929.02$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.11 | 341 | 29.3%100 W · 241 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31b6…2d92backed Yes | 27c | 928.79$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 29cpaid | -72%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5843…1e89backed Yes | 28c | 892.86$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8674…d797backed Yes | 35c | 823$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 33c | 792.26$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.53 | 248 | 61.7%153 W · 95 L | +24.3wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1e38…5d7fbacked No | 52c | 755.07$393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.02 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +2.4wins | +0.15per pick | 41cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc3…7552backed Yes | 29c | 716$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.64 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79c4…d1c7backed Yes | 31c | 709.26$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.87 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4469…5e90backed Yes | 75c | 666.67$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd641…3350backed Yes | 68c | 665$452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$452.2 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f8b…0159backed Yes | 18c | 661.76$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.27 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -2.7wins | -0.13per pick | 32cpaid | -71%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed No | 66c | 630$416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214 | 83 | 31.3%26 W · 57 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf78…c8c4backed No | 49c | 610$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.5 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0275…c5e4backed Yes | 54c | 601.21$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 57cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa68…94a7backed Yes | 31c | 600$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60eb…4949backed No | 33c | 600$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.5 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 36cpaid | +95.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35ea…467ebacked Yes | 54c | 582.55$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.78 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc17…289abacked Yes | 26c | 556.46$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.23 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69bc…577dbacked Yes | 19c | 526.32$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff17…5745backed Yes | 21c | 510$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe0…f2a8backed Yes | 25c | 502.43$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.15 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -2.6wins | -0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x740e…fff3backed Yes | 23c | 500$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xace3…8f54backed Yes | 26c | 500$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa3…9025backed Yes | 80c | 500$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x244a…623abacked Yes | 17c | 488.24$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8504…ac64backed Yes | 33c | 456$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.48 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 35cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa063…7248backed Yes | 22c | 454.55$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5b…2891backed Yes | 70c | 449.31$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6387…d1c2backed Yes | 50c | 444.84$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9239…a86fbacked Yes | 32c | 434.75$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3efd…b2ffbacked Yes | 35c | 428.57$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc395…5c8cbacked Yes | 17c | 400$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7120…201bbacked Yes | 34c | 400$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will a Republican win Wisconsin US Senate Election?this page
- Will a Democrat win Wisconsin US Senate Election?Yes won
- Will a candidate from another party win Wisconsin US Senate Election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.