Weather · resolved market
Will Beryl hit US as a hurricane?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x98250663bed7a74c9fcabb505f60fc026c48470b14a88c0b5f34ae1f774a3eff
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,549
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,174
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,549 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa672…f083backed Yes | 23c | 11,487$2,596 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,890.67 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +242.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked No | 34c | 1,261$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$431.6 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb9cc…387abacked No | 7c | 1,221$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.34 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ecc…6ee0backed Yes | 13c | 1,141$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$992.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.87per pick | 13cpaid | +670.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked No | 19c | 522.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.07 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1820…e3f7backed Yes | 31c | 516.34$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.7 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa355…aba6backed Yes | 16c | 400$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 15cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc23d…b637backed No | 4c | 382.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.93 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c31…ea4bbacked No | 8c | 344.17$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.06 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd3…e662backed No | 15c | 337.72$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.66 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 18cpaid | -88.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeea7…79adbacked Yes | 79c | 305.88$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92fb…4ffebacked Yes | 34c | 287.09$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.76 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +46%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba36…27eabacked Yes | 22c | 273.05$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.85 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf612…5700backed No | 9c | 257.29$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.97 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e4f…1682backed Yes | 17c | 250$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.87per pick | 13cpaid | +705.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x67f4…4a81backed Yes | 20c | 250$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +150%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c33…8bbfbacked Yes | 9c | 222.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.91per pick | 9cpaid | +1,011.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2447…d141backed No | 71c | 222.05$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…21bbbacked No | 43c | 205.83$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked No | 9c | 163.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d8…c38ebacked Yes | 52c | 128.6$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.07 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +73.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fde…f976backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.82per pick | 18cpaid | +455.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3c…4325backed Yes | 18c | 98$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b79…b3febacked Yes | 26c | 94.44$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.44 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 42cpaid | +103.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3399…e5fbbacked Yes | 17c | 90$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6445…4ec0backed Yes | 79c | 85.21$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.93 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b3c…70babacked Yes | 62c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 16cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd8…a54cbacked No | 79c | 37.97$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d52…93b3backed No | 80c | 32.5$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e39…fc60backed No | 73c | 15.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.