TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ncaa Basketball · resolved market

Spread: UMBC Retrievers (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Howard Bisonof UMBC Retrievers, Howard Bison
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$162,845
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$161,462

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $162,845 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 133 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xee61…debfbacked Howard Bison52c24,112$12,594 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,517.8412,42249.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L+118.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8454…331abacked UMBC Retrievers48c20,690$9,931 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,931.163732.4%12 W · 25 L-5.0wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-37.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked UMBC Retrievers47c20,452$9,609 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,609.292,89650%1,448 W · 1,448 L+71.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed UMBC Retrievers47c20,114$9,487 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,486.7261652.8%325 W · 291 L+21.6wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Howard Bison53c15,533$8,229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,304.571,43647.5%682 W · 754 L-18.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8738…222bbacked Howard Bison53c8,500$4,524 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,975.6225556.1%143 W · 112 L+12.4wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+8.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked UMBC Retrievers47c8,037$3,761 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,761.4446246.5%215 W · 247 L-6.8wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-5.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Howard Bison52c6,231$3,246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,984.815,55347.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L+26.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-3.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x034b…b22bbacked Howard Bison53c6,230$3,271 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,958.431450%7 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-19.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa672…f083backed UMBC Retrievers48c6,000$2,880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,879.9920%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed UMBC Retrievers48c5,000$2,380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,3809839.8%39 W · 59 L+0.2wins0.00per pick40cpaid-18.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf41a…ea2bbacked UMBC Retrievers48c4,222$2,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,019.562,68748.5%1,303 W · 1,384 L+4.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8861…4c2ebacked UMBC Retrievers48c4,133$1,983 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,982.53944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-1.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked Howard Bison52c4,000$2,080 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,92010739.3%42 W · 65 L-8.5wins-0.08per pick47cpaid-17%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0b9c…7e44backed UMBC Retrievers47c3,820$1,792 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,791.786149.2%30 W · 31 L+2.9wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+9.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a32…0086backed Howard Bison52c3,315$1,727 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,588.2522349.3%110 W · 113 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Howard Bison53c3,111$1,646 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,465.071,15248.9%563 W · 589 L+3.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x335d…8f03backed UMBC Retrievers48c3,013$1,443 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,443.28748.3%42 W · 45 L+0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4595…df87backed UMBC Retrievers47c3,000$1,423 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,4232425%6 W · 18 L-1.9wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-41.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf1f1…2d5fbacked Howard Bison52c2,124$1,099 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,024.883154.8%17 W · 14 L+2.8wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+17.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0778…1276backed UMBC Retrievers48c2,000$960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$960825%2 W · 6 L-1.9wins-0.24per pick49cpaid-48.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3c7e…a65fbacked UMBC Retrievers47c1,983$940 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$939.7327947.3%132 W · 147 L+0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6447…8075backed UMBC Retrievers48c1,950$935 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$934.843348.5%16 W · 17 L+2.2wins+0.07per pick42cpaid+10.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7771…009fbacked UMBC Retrievers48c1,916$924 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$923.5412344.7%55 W · 68 L-3.4wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x426f…e76bbacked UMBC Retrievers48c1,188$571 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$571.27825%2 W · 6 L-2.4wins-0.30per pick55cpaid-54.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6e2c…b7f8backed UMBC Retrievers48c1,000$481 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4812330.4%7 W · 16 L-3.2wins-0.14per pick44cpaid-39%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xeb99…0730backed UMBC Retrievers48c1,000$481 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4812050%10 W · 10 L+0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed UMBC Retrievers48c996.43$478 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$478.2930649%150 W · 156 L-9.0wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4b8a…f4a4backed UMBC Retrievers48c991.26$478 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$477.7918556.8%105 W · 80 L+14.2wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+15.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x3fa5…4f56backed Howard Bison52c951.35$499 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$452.841540%6 W · 9 L+1.8wins+0.12per pick28cpaid+71.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6350…a95abacked UMBC Retrievers48c908.06$436 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$435.8710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe60c…d2e2backed Howard Bison53c891.77$471 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$420.926261.3%38 W · 24 L+5.4wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+16.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc6a1…b1ecbacked Howard Bison52c874.36$453 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$421.446349.2%31 W · 32 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe864…ce58backed UMBC Retrievers48c810.79$391 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$390.7718048.9%88 W · 92 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe33f…e413backed UMBC Retrievers48c799.94$382 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$381.8737246.2%172 W · 200 L+6.7wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa59…75ecbacked UMBC Retrievers47c777$368 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$367.5114346.9%67 W · 76 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b54…db07backed Howard Bison53c753.87$397 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$356.792245.5%10 W · 12 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2714…960fbacked Howard Bison52c693.88$361 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$333.0616147.2%76 W · 85 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x198b…cd1abacked UMBC Retrievers47c633$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-42.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf87e…5752backed UMBC Retrievers48c613.09$291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291.2230%0 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3a19…8f5bbacked Howard Bison52c601.06$310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$290.911258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.2wins+0.10per pick48cpaid+7.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x95b7…d633backed Howard Bison51c598.06$307 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$291.3814447.9%69 W · 75 L+8.4wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+11.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0d82…e16abacked Howard Bison53c562.16$297 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$264.781450%7 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-6.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x889c…e375backed UMBC Retrievers48c514.14$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.8213350.4%67 W · 66 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc4db…7e0cbacked UMBC Retrievers48c500$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24093941.6%391 W · 548 L+25.4wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+3.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc42c…42a1backed Howard Bison52c476.8$249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$228.0463551.5%327 W · 308 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x15c6…91d7backed UMBC Retrievers47c453$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.92450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-22%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8708…15aabacked UMBC Retrievers48c448.03$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216.8510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb2ca…d984backed UMBC Retrievers48c413.73$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.2516253.1%86 W · 76 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+5.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x15d5…ef7bbacked Howard Bison52c397.27$207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.6938837.6%146 W · 242 L+14.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbd49…7fe8backed UMBC Retrievers47c375$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-19.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaab4…fe7abacked UMBC Retrievers47c317$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.36450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-15%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe5af…f9e3backed UMBC Retrievers47c274.18$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.8710252%53 W · 49 L+2.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+7.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x126f…fcc4backed Howard Bison52c248.89$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.161100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+93.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x691a…d113backed Howard Bison52c223.46$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.2622043.2%95 W · 125 L-0.6wins0.00per pick43cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x67e6…86edbacked Howard Bison52c217.44$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.3729650.7%150 W · 146 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Howard Bison52c216.16$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.7350548.9%247 W · 258 L+13.1wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x59a8…eb4ebacked Howard Bison52c209.69$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.6510150.5%51 W · 50 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf9de…bd0abacked Howard Bison52c209.39$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.512100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc97f…2da1backed UMBC Retrievers49c208.49$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.9510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x55af…8407backed UMBC Retrievers48c202.38$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.141526.7%4 W · 11 L-3.5wins-0.23per pick50cpaid-45.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x8646…1951backed UMBC Retrievers48c200$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9199…32aebacked Howard Bison52c199.13$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.981100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+93.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd25…2492backed Howard Bison52c199.13$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.981100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+93.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xed99…3bc3backed UMBC Retrievers48c199.12$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.2310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x41f9…84e6backed Howard Bison52c198.25$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.1620642.7%88 W · 118 L-5.6wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-9.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6752…bc58backed Howard Bison52c192.74$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.521100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x72a1…1950backed Howard Bison52c190.99$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.8733855%186 W · 152 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2778…8547backed Howard Bison53c188.34$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.521650%8 W · 8 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+8.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5871…0defbacked Howard Bison53c183.91$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.814348.8%21 W · 22 L+5.2wins+0.12per pick37cpaid+19%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x20bc…3533backed UMBC Retrievers49c182.56$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.2710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d8c…a80dbacked UMBC Retrievers49c181.83$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.91250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb49…1fbebacked Howard Bison53c181.24$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.267951.9%41 W · 38 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+8.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3cc…00a4backed Howard Bison52c174.58$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.83100%3 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+107.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5b20…99e9backed Howard Bison52c171.56$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.3579448.9%388 W · 406 L+1.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf48d…fe48backed Howard Bison52c168.52$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.1312649.2%62 W · 64 L+5.2wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+7.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x78e0…207abacked UMBC Retrievers49c160.62$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.54366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.22per pick45cpaid+62.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x932a…9c18backed Howard Bison52c156.79$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.26450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-7.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbc32…a158backed Howard Bison54c147$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.62475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.25per pick50cpaid+27.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9868…e82bbacked UMBC Retrievers48c145.78$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.3910144.6%45 W · 56 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-18%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1813…4dfebacked Howard Bison52c133.13$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.930054%162 W · 138 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b89…99e2backed Howard Bison52c130.2$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.521342.3%90 W · 123 L-6.8wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-3.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0f60…026abacked UMBC Retrievers48c128.08$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.898350.6%42 W · 41 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4d8e…3d55backed Howard Bison53c125.55$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.137655.3%42 W · 34 L+5.8wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+16.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8a3d…316cbacked Howard Bison52c118.95$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.150745.2%229 W · 278 L+0.6wins0.00per pick45cpaid+2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77a7…bb11backed Howard Bison52c118.87$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.823754.1%20 W · 17 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9121…bd6cbacked UMBC Retrievers48c106.91$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.216136.1%22 W · 39 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-15.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x34fa…f491backed Howard Bison53c100$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.51,07046.9%502 W · 568 L-0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x849f…0665backed Howard Bison52c100$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4862451.1%319 W · 305 L+9.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x56a7…9f37backed Howard Bison52c95.31$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.756963.8%44 W · 25 L+10.0wins+0.15per pick49cpaid+32.9%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x5f39…d603backed Howard Bison52c95.29$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.7433058.2%192 W · 138 L+24.2wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+14.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x52fc…6c84backed UMBC Retrievers48c86.96$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.632339.1%9 W · 14 L-2.4wins-0.10per pick49cpaid-0.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x172f…b136backed Howard Bison52c80.25$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.12666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+19.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5628…abbcbacked Howard Bison52c79.3$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.0613356.4%75 W · 58 L+10.8wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+18.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked UMBC Retrievers47c71.71$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.994,38240.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L+23.7wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f32…78cebacked UMBC Retrievers47c69$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.57922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick30cpaid+38.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc64e…746fbacked Howard Bison53c67.46$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.771855.6%10 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe624…2928backed Howard Bison52c57.49$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.3740849.8%203 W · 205 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf32c…ff08backed Howard Bison53c56.43$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.692245.5%10 W · 12 L-2.1wins-0.10per pick55cpaid-24.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xda2c…2a5ebacked UMBC Retrievers47c56$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.5450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-16%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.