Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Howard Bison vs. UMBC Retrievers: O/U 142.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf2db721da1104f5fe5e2c0121d389f823d64a0fb9dc5de61929261673d7be375
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,937
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,937 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Under | 48c | 4,956$2,379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,379.03 | 223 | 49.3%110 W · 113 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 52c | 3,206$1,667 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,538.65 | 2,896 | 50%1,448 W · 1,448 L | +71.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed Under | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.99 | 185 | 56.8%105 W · 80 L | +14.2wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 51c | 1,171$593 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$578.14 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked Under | 51c | 1,137$577 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$577 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc339…ba5bbacked Under | 48c | 1,113$534 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$534.29 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -4.9wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 52c | 1,091$564 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$527.06 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc42c…42a1backed Over | 49c | 527.51$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.03 | 635 | 51.5%327 W · 308 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked Over | 49c | 133.17$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.92 | 300 | 54%162 W · 138 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8e…3d55backed Over | 53c | 125.31$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.9 | 76 | 55.3%42 W · 34 L | +5.8wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6464…7899backed Under | 48c | 103.26$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 48c | 101.15$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.55 | 4,552 | 50.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L | -36.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa097…fba7backed Under | 47c | 99.13$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.59 | 91 | 48.4%44 W · 47 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Over | 51c | 99.13$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.57 | 43 | 72.1%31 W · 12 L | +10.4wins | +0.24per pick | 48cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0b9c…7e44backed Over | 67c | 96.66$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.03 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf4f…63f3backed Over | 53c | 55.55$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.11 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe74…a70ebacked Over | 52c | 52.08$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +3.4wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x81f3…1f2abacked Under | 48c | 51.63$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.78 | 64 | 46.9%30 W · 34 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d6…e952backed Under | 48c | 51.63$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.78 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed Over | 49c | 48.71$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.84 | 213 | 42.3%90 W · 123 L | -6.8wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8632…4696backed Over | 52c | 39.54$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.98 | 166 | 50%83 W · 83 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0056…a7f7backed Over | 52c | 39.18$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.81 | 276 | 50.7%140 W · 136 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ab…cd8dbacked Over | 53c | 37.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.58 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +3.4wins | +0.26per pick | 51cpaid | +50.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x20b4…b218backed Over | 53c | 36.13$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.98 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 57cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed Over | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 134 | 57.5%77 W · 57 L | +7.6wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 60c | 19.83$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.93 | 4,382 | 40.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L | +23.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Howard Bison vs. UMBC Retrievers: O/U 142.5this page
- Howard Bison vs. UMBC RetrieversHoward Bison won
- Howard Bison vs. UMBC Retrievers: O/U 139.5Over won
- Howard Bison vs. UMBC Retrievers: O/U 140.5Over won
- Howard Bison vs. UMBC Retrievers: O/U 143.5Over won
- Howard Bison vs. UMBC Retrievers: O/U 170.5Under won
- Spread: Howard Bison (-1.5)Howard Bison won
- Spread: Howard Bison (-2.5)Howard Bison won
- Spread: Howard Bison (-3.5)UMBC Retrievers won
- Spread: Howard Bison (-7.5)UMBC Retrievers won
- Spread: Howard Bison (-8.5)UMBC Retrievers won
- Spread: UMBC Retrievers (-1.5)Howard Bison won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.