Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Howard Bison (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf79940a1554532192e83803c1cbc4b9a50520ee31f284b060220a7152c679d91
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Howard Bisonof Howard Bison, UMBC Retrievers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,668
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,668 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed UMBC Retrievers | 54c | 5,055$2,730 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,729.77 | 1,152 | 48.9%563 W · 589 L | +3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Howard Bison | 63c | 4,788$2,994 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,794.32 | 1,910 | 49.6%947 W · 963 L | +30.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf28e…cab2backed UMBC Retrievers | 24c | 1,684$404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$404.28 | 216 | 36.1%78 W · 138 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed UMBC Retrievers | 17c | 1,168$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.8 | 147 | 28.6%42 W · 105 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Howard Bison | 46c | 1,068$491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$576.52 | 1,436 | 47.5%682 W · 754 L | -18.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa59…75ecbacked UMBC Retrievers | 55c | 999.98$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$549.99 | 143 | 46.9%67 W · 76 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Howard Bison | 53c | 983.89$522 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461.55 | 318 | 37.7%120 W · 198 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7771…009fbacked Howard Bison | 46c | 900.61$414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$486.33 | 123 | 44.7%55 W · 68 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Howard Bison | 45c | 880.55$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480.24 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Howard Bison | 52c | 637.78$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.65 | 462 | 46.5%215 W · 247 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c56…0615backed UMBC Retrievers | 48c | 433.68$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.17 | 94 | 52.1%49 W · 45 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Howard Bison | 56c | 311.06$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.35 | 353 | 38.5%136 W · 217 L | -18.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x450b…11d7backed Howard Bison | 47c | 295.28$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.5 | 1,251 | 50.6%633 W · 618 L | +12.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x292e…172cbacked Howard Bison | 47c | 210.91$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.78 | 833 | 50.2%418 W · 415 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed UMBC Retrievers | 25c | 198.69$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.67 | 134 | 45.5%61 W · 73 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Howard Bison | 67c | 167.12$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.42 | 3,380 | 49.5%1,673 W · 1,707 L | +30.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x299f…2140backed Howard Bison | 45c | 150.15$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.58 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8dec…60c2backed Howard Bison | 49c | 104.74$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.26 | 142 | 45.8%65 W · 77 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce8…2f9ebacked UMBC Retrievers | 55c | 62.59$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.63 | 306 | 52%159 W · 147 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…b78ebacked UMBC Retrievers | 55c | 61.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.12 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed UMBC Retrievers | 29c | 57.58$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 2,012 | 50%1,006 W · 1,006 L | +22.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Howard Bison | 78c | 53.2$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 716 | 55.3%396 W · 320 L | +26.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ad…6979backed Howard Bison | 55c | 53.1$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.16 | 90 | 50%45 W · 45 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe293…d3edbacked Howard Bison | 47c | 31.87$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Howard Bison | 44c | 31.72$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.77 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x625b…031fbacked UMBC Retrievers | 49c | 24.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d6b…591abacked Howard Bison | 47c | 24.17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.81 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79ec…e99bbacked UMBC Retrievers | 54c | 22.63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x087f…2ebfbacked Howard Bison | 60c | 18.89$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 57 | 57.9%33 W · 24 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Howard Bison (-1.5)this page
- Howard Bison vs. UMBC RetrieversHoward Bison won
- Howard Bison vs. UMBC Retrievers: O/U 139.5Over won
- Howard Bison vs. UMBC Retrievers: O/U 140.5Over won
- Howard Bison vs. UMBC Retrievers: O/U 142.5Over won
- Howard Bison vs. UMBC Retrievers: O/U 143.5Over won
- Howard Bison vs. UMBC Retrievers: O/U 170.5Under won
- Spread: Howard Bison (-2.5)Howard Bison won
- Spread: Howard Bison (-3.5)UMBC Retrievers won
- Spread: Howard Bison (-7.5)UMBC Retrievers won
- Spread: Howard Bison (-8.5)UMBC Retrievers won
- Spread: UMBC Retrievers (-1.5)Howard Bison won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.