Music · resolved market
Drake drops new track by Monday?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x155456e21b5b89ccd7e99dd61121d4931b2a408866af82288dba9c9eba2dc4fd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,925
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,075
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,925 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa386…a3aebacked Yes | 11c | 984.56$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$874.05 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +423.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6356…1885backed No | 24c | 925.43$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.78 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +886.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0428…9b44backed Yes | 22c | 736.28$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$571.66 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbd…af92backed Yes | 14c | 411.9$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.05 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7789…f823backed Yes | 10c | 400$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked No | 77c | 374.69$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.51 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84f9…0285backed No | 73c | 255.4$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf612…5700backed Yes | 25c | 205$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.35 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e0…de9abacked No | 79c | 173.06$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.72 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09cb…218ebacked No | 78c | 163.22$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.94 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2e…4d83backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 30cpaid | +85.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa672…f083backed Yes | 24c | 83.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.76per pick | 24cpaid | +316.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf633…d194backed No | 78c | 64.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15a5…ded9backed No | 74c | 59.54$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.