Fed Rates · resolved market
Powell says "inflation" 15+ times in FOMC statement?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x24e92a97931bfbcf9ac3875d664cd77180551979458828e28ccd0932c09914ba
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,038
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,400
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,038 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd352…4ad6backed No | 65c | 3,783$2,449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,448.98 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -29%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 50c | 3,011$1,511 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,500.44 | 71 | 60.6%43 W · 28 L | +10.8wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1eab…5692backed No | 20c | 2,746$549 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$549.19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b3d…8db7backed Yes | 47c | 2,521$1,191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,329.98 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 74c | 1,619$1,198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,197.87 | 68 | 29.4%20 W · 48 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed No | 43c | 1,480$637 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$637.47 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +54.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc970…b063backed Yes | 30c | 1,000$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$701.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +57.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c85…9e34backed No | 40c | 600$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bab…1292backed Yes | 57c | 592.8$338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.71 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.19per pick | 45cpaid | +54.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1a20…101cbacked Yes | 6c | 527.29$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$495.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.94per pick | 6cpaid | +1,566.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1820…e3f7backed No | 24c | 515.64$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.51 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 38cpaid | -81.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc54…680fbacked Yes | 31c | 500$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345 | 89 | 24.7%22 W · 67 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2d6…f3bdbacked Yes | 36c | 495.64$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.94 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8817…b60fbacked No | 41c | 473.4$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.89 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67b5…9f1ebacked Yes | 25c | 449.72$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.58 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d4e…d786backed No | 35c | 368.67$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…f44ebacked Yes | 65c | 360$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd13…e6f1backed No | 21c | 332$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.72 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x198b…a1dcbacked Yes | 47c | 319.63$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.65 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed Yes | 61c | 315.39$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.09 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x93be…4c50backed Yes | 75c | 290.19$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.19 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03ca…cba9backed No | 49c | 264.08$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x63f1…6272backed No | 47c | 221$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.75 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.18per pick | 54cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1955…aef1backed No | 50c | 216.96$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.08 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf01…492abacked No | 64c | 200$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.12 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf699…47e7backed Yes | 49c | 200$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbfd…0029backed No | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 18cpaid | -88.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb84a…e71fbacked No | 53c | 189.04$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -58%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x670b…e4afbacked No | 49c | 126.2$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86d3…5679backed Yes | 55c | 125.53$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Yes | 27c | 112.39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.12 | 98 | 53.1%52 W · 46 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d40…ec52backed Yes | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1388…339abacked No | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88b8…478cbacked Yes | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +84.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3665…c2c1backed No | 42c | 97.36$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef3…3d1bbacked No | 60c | 68.01$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.94 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c2…fe44backed No | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d40…f14dbacked Yes | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc1…b8dfbacked No | 39c | 33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.86 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47a5…aa28backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcfd…c364backed Yes | 66c | 22.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3b…c3e2backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.