NFL · resolved market

Spread: Bills (-8.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdf5f7e133ddc18a67439a28cc280ff1d511d73d1608880b1047e0f32434f9b12

Rebuilt 21 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Billsof Bills, Jets
Resolved: Jan 4, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $61,320
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $61,958

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $61,320 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NFL
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x0d3b…c46bbacked Jets	52c	47,440$24,608 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24,608.15	111	45.9%51 W · 60 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Bills	48c	42,448$20,375 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22,072.89	865	47.9%414 W · 451 L	-6.6wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Bills	50c	4,040$2,020 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,020	191	52.9%101 W · 90 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa315…cabbbacked Bills	48c	4,040$1,952 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,087.78	284	47.5%135 W · 149 L	-5.5wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Jets	51c	2,311$1,182 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,181.95	650	48.3%314 W · 336 L	-0.8wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Bills	52c	2,131$1,102 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,028.91	1,196	49.9%597 W · 599 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Jets	52c	2,000$1,040 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,040	394	47.7%188 W · 206 L	-7.3wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8753…85adbacked Jets	50c	1,600$800 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$800	206	61.2%126 W · 80 L	+12.3wins	+0.06per pick	55cpaid	+11.2%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Bills	59c	1,015$599 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$416.15	473	48.4%229 W · 244 L	+1.1wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	+0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Jets	41c	1,000$410 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$410	160	45%72 W · 88 L	-2.3wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Jets	55c	988.31$541 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$540.89	1,065	51.3%546 W · 519 L	+25.3wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc17f…50aabacked Bills	45c	741.75$334 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$407.96	112	54.5%61 W · 51 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	54cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc092…0cd9backed Jets	51c	655.45$335 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$335	59	49.2%29 W · 30 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-7.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Jets	51c	528.99$270 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$269.78	212	54.2%115 W · 97 L	+5.0wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+5.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xce26…8e06backed Bills	55c	505.67$277 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$228.76	83	45.8%38 W · 45 L	-5.6wins	-0.07per pick	53cpaid	-14.3%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1733…1e15backed Jets	52c	384.62$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	204	43.6%89 W · 115 L	-7.9wins	-0.04per pick	47cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x43d7…dca3backed Jets	54c	367.27$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	67	55.2%37 W · 30 L	+3.4wins	+0.05per pick	50cpaid	+9.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfce1…9ce7backed Bills	44c	343$151 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$192.08	17	47.1%8 W · 9 L	-1.1wins	-0.07per pick	54cpaid	-7.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xac97…a99ebacked Bills	42c	305.02$128 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$176.91	392	42.6%167 W · 225 L	-7.1wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-7.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2816…6ad7backed Jets	46c	300$138 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$138	32	56.3%18 W · 14 L	+2.5wins	+0.08per pick	49cpaid	+10.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfd3f…44f1backed Bills	47c	295.31$139 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$156.31	21	42.9%9 W · 12 L	-1.2wins	-0.06per pick	48cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Jets	39c	279$109 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$108.81	266	49.6%132 W · 134 L	+0.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed Jets	58c	200$116 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$116	594	53.7%319 W · 275 L	+24.2wins	+0.04per pick	50cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Bills	54c	194$105 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$89.24	532	53%282 W · 250 L	+19.1wins	+0.04per pick	49cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x927f…e7e7backed Bills	45c	167.27$75 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$92	206	32%66 W · 140 L	-10.8wins	-0.05per pick	37cpaid	-20.9%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5b20…99e9backed Jets	51c	156.86$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	280	47.5%133 W · 147 L	-5.8wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d28…7a6dbacked Jets	46c	130.13$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.81	209	44.5%93 W · 116 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd2a2…004abacked Jets	46c	120$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.2	115	52.2%60 W · 55 L	+2.4wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Jets	53c	108.51$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.51	249	57%142 W · 107 L	+12.6wins	+0.05per pick	52cpaid	+12.3%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x036a…4c9abacked Bills	47c	106.38$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$56.38	56	48.2%27 W · 29 L	-2.3wins	-0.04per pick	52cpaid	-8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x437b…0ba4backed Jets	58c	98$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.84	47	57.4%27 W · 20 L	+2.1wins	+0.04per pick	53cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x83fc…13ccbacked Jets	43c	91.88$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.36	21	38.1%8 W · 13 L	-2.2wins	-0.10per pick	49cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x021a…b2d7backed Bills	54c	73.82$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33.82	96	41.7%40 W · 56 L	-2.5wins	-0.03per pick	44cpaid	-6.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe5bc…a233backed Bills	48c	70.82$34 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$36.83	18	50%9 W · 9 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb4c3…f427backed Bills	48c	55.1$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.65	36	58.3%21 W · 15 L	+3.4wins	+0.09per pick	49cpaid	+17%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x15ca…0a0dbacked Jets	51c	49.01$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	21	19%4 W · 17 L	-3.9wins	-0.19per pick	38cpaid	-61.2%equal weight	41-0.09 edge/pick
0x6a5c…b3f2backed Bills	48c	42.44$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.07	55	56.4%31 W · 24 L	+3.6wins	+0.06per pick	50cpaid	+8.1%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xaab6…607ebacked Jets	52c	40$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.8	127	56.7%72 W · 55 L	+8.4wins	+0.07per pick	50cpaid	+15.2%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4a87…fb21backed Bills	53c	38.58$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.13	203	54.7%111 W · 92 L	+11.9wins	+0.06per pick	49cpaid	+12.4%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3888…0755backed Bills	61c	32.79$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.79	98	55.1%54 W · 44 L	+5.0wins	+0.05per pick	50cpaid	+12.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3a56…387cbacked Jets	44c	30$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.3	148	44.6%66 W · 82 L	-1.8wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-18.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1540…04e9backed Bills	48c	28.46$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.8	28	53.6%15 W · 13 L	+1.4wins	+0.05per pick	49cpaid	+8.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x98d0…01a4backed Bills	64c	28.13$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.13	96	52.1%50 W · 46 L	-4.0wins	-0.04per pick	56cpaid	-6.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf0ac…4ec7backed Jets	36c	28.13$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.13	276	33.3%92 W · 184 L	-1.5wins	-0.01per pick	34cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Jets	51c	22$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.22	346	52.9%183 W · 163 L	+16.0wins	+0.05per pick	48cpaid	+11.1%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0919…fcbcbacked Jets	53c	20.14$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.67	30	30%9 W · 21 L	-2.4wins	-0.08per pick	38cpaid	-32.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Bills (-8.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event