NFL · resolved market
Jets vs. Bills: O/U 39.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x292cd90d8b3aec1bfa791894e80af9b48215364539494f2e5d1ed054d52e265e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,884
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,869
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,884 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 50c | 1,092$551 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$551 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Under | 51c | 952$486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485.52 | 533 | 48.4%258 W · 275 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Over | 50c | 922$461 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461 | 358 | 48.6%174 W · 184 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 49c | 802$393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.02 | 394 | 47.7%188 W · 206 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f29…f03dbacked Over | 49c | 714.29$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.29 | 137 | 52.6%72 W · 65 L | +10.9wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 56c | 600$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333 | 650 | 48.3%314 W · 336 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe727…5e8dbacked Over | 49c | 408.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.16 | 175 | 48%84 W · 91 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Under | 51c | 404$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.04 | 266 | 49.6%132 W · 134 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24d8…e8a8backed Over | 49c | 403.47$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.77 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +5.2wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 45c | 189$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.35 | 473 | 48.4%229 W · 244 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45d5…47efbacked Over | 44c | 179.25$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.78 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -5.4wins | -0.21per pick | 48cpaid | -48%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Over | 48c | 173$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.96 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Over | 43c | 150$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.5 | 138 | 44.9%62 W · 76 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Under | 55c | 142.69$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.48 | 346 | 52.9%183 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Over | 45c | 129.95$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.47 | 532 | 53%282 W · 250 L | +19.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99fe…b61cbacked Over | 49c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.6 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a2…004abacked Under | 55c | 60$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 115 | 52.2%60 W · 55 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Over | 45c | 59$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.45 | 202 | 38.6%78 W · 124 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Under | 56c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 127 | 56.7%72 W · 55 L | +8.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -5.2wins | -0.17per pick | 52cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Jets vs. Bills: O/U 39.5this page
- 1H Spread: Bills (-4.5)Bills won
- 1H Spread: Bills (-6.5)Bills won
- Jets vs. BillsBills won
- Jets vs. Bills: 1H MoneylineBills won
- Jets vs. Bills: 1H O/U 19.5Over won
- Jets vs. Bills: O/U 37.5Over won
- Jets vs. Bills: O/U 38.5Over won
- Jets vs. Bills: O/U 40.5Over won
- Spread: Bills (-10.5)Bills won
- Spread: Bills (-11.5)Bills won
- Spread: Bills (-12.5)Bills won
- Spread: Bills (-6.5)Bills won
- Spread: Bills (-7.5)Bills won
- Spread: Bills (-8.5)Bills won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.