NFL · resolved market
Jets vs. Bills: O/U 38.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5a71fcf5da587e078182405973e08b15e81eedb04be91319b9b56414d936779c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,791
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,771
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,791 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4488…e319backed Over | 52c | 9,500$4,950 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,549.99 | 358 | 48.6%174 W · 184 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf28e…cab2backed Under | 48c | 5,929$2,846 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,845.82 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 48c | 1,749$839 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$839.39 | 394 | 47.7%188 W · 206 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Under | 53c | 1,700$901 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$901 | 206 | 61.2%126 W · 80 L | +12.3wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf08…9f3fbacked Over | 52c | 1,346$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$646.15 | 80 | 56.3%45 W · 35 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Under | 47c | 1,330$625 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$625.1 | 192 | 40.1%77 W · 115 L | -16.2wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 49c | 1,162$564 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$597.78 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe5f…d795backed Under | 47c | 1,002$471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470.87 | 114 | 52.6%60 W · 54 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 46c | 886.52$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407.8 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 52c | 652.12$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.58 | 650 | 48.3%314 W · 336 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Over | 47c | 525$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.25 | 196 | 38.8%76 W · 120 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Under | 48c | 416.67$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 204 | 43.6%89 W · 115 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 52c | 369$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.81 | 736 | 51.2%377 W · 359 L | +25.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f29…f03dbacked Over | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 137 | 52.6%72 W · 65 L | +10.9wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Over | 51c | 269$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.81 | 356 | 48%171 W · 185 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1a…0df6backed Over | 51c | 264$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.36 | 168 | 60.7%102 W · 66 L | +18.7wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Under | 47c | 253$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.91 | 266 | 49.6%132 W · 134 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a45…41f6backed Over | 52c | 230.77$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.77 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 53c | 225$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.25 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbc…9cf6backed Under | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 75 | 50.7%38 W · 37 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cd…b74cbacked Under | 48c | 200$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 191 | 24.6%47 W · 144 L | -11.8wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 49c | 164$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.36 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Under | 48c | 145.83$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 280 | 47.5%133 W · 147 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 48c | 140.13$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.82 | 758 | 52.5%398 W · 360 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…5a08backed Under | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d12…592cbacked Over | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Over | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 138 | 44.9%62 W · 76 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1725…7405backed Under | 48c | 41.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Under | 53c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 127 | 56.7%72 W · 55 L | +8.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Under | 53c | 36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 346 | 52.9%183 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Under | 48c | 31.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 209 | 44.5%93 W · 116 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b7…fa4bbacked Over | 52c | 25.88$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.42 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9e…0db0backed Over | 53c | 24.74$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.53 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x206a…e438backed Over | 53c | 19.21$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.01 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Jets vs. Bills: O/U 38.5this page
- 1H Spread: Bills (-4.5)Bills won
- 1H Spread: Bills (-6.5)Bills won
- Jets vs. BillsBills won
- Jets vs. Bills: 1H MoneylineBills won
- Jets vs. Bills: 1H O/U 19.5Over won
- Jets vs. Bills: O/U 37.5Over won
- Jets vs. Bills: O/U 39.5Over won
- Jets vs. Bills: O/U 40.5Over won
- Spread: Bills (-10.5)Bills won
- Spread: Bills (-11.5)Bills won
- Spread: Bills (-12.5)Bills won
- Spread: Bills (-6.5)Bills won
- Spread: Bills (-7.5)Bills won
- Spread: Bills (-8.5)Bills won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.