NFL · resolved market

Spread: Bills (-6.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x60d63a573c4f927edf092316fbe3240369277540d43a5cf061b210a9c838cf18

Rebuilt 7 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Billsof Bills, Jets
Resolved: Jan 4, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $24,337
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $24,474

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,337 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NFL
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x227e…e118backed Bills	59c	12,158$7,173 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,984.78	10	40%4 W · 6 L	-0.9wins	-0.09per pick	49cpaid	-31.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Jets	41c	7,492$3,074 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,074.45	758	52.5%398 W · 360 L	+21.9wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Jets	39c	6,587$2,552 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,552.01	736	51.2%377 W · 359 L	+25.9wins	+0.04per pick	48cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Bills	61c	5,631$3,435 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,196.24	502	42.4%213 W · 289 L	-5.6wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x24d8…e8a8backed Jets	41c	3,000$1,230 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,230	35	65.7%23 W · 12 L	+5.2wins	+0.15per pick	51cpaid	+29.9%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x06e6…87e6backed Bills	62c	2,561$1,583 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$977.84	146	41.8%61 W · 85 L	-10.9wins	-0.07per pick	49cpaid	-12.9%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Jets	44c	1,275$557 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$557.22	650	48.3%314 W · 336 L	-0.8wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Jets	43c	884$384 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$384.49	1,065	51.3%546 W · 519 L	+25.3wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Bills	65c	735$478 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$256.95	315	43.2%136 W · 179 L	+6.9wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Bills	69c	580$399 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$180.83	473	48.4%229 W · 244 L	+1.1wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	+0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf0ac…4ec7backed Jets	31c	500$155 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$155	276	33.3%92 W · 184 L	-1.5wins	-0.01per pick	34cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x1733…1e15backed Jets	41c	487.8$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	204	43.6%89 W · 115 L	-7.9wins	-0.04per pick	47cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdebb…eedbbacked Jets	41c	455.73$187 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$186.55	61	34.4%21 W · 40 L	-2.6wins	-0.04per pick	39cpaid	-31.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x298c…3e58backed Jets	41c	426.83$175 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$175	91	38.5%35 W · 56 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	39cpaid	-2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc17f…50aabacked Jets	41c	275$113 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$112.75	112	54.5%61 W · 51 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	54cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb9fc…da76backed Jets	29c	249.99$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72.5	192	40.1%77 W · 115 L	-16.2wins	-0.08per pick	49cpaid	-21.5%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe025…102fbacked Jets	41c	243.9$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	29	51.7%15 W · 14 L	+1.7wins	+0.06per pick	46cpaid	+7.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa00f…8e56backed Bills	59c	230.2$136 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$94.22	294	39.5%116 W · 178 L	-6.4wins	-0.02per pick	42cpaid	-22.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc6e7…caa8backed Jets	15c	200$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	54	9.3%5 W · 49 L	+1.4wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+9.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe727…5e8dbacked Bills	71c	140.85$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40.85	175	48%84 W · 91 L	-7.6wins	-0.04per pick	52cpaid	-9.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9fbd…3d15backed Jets	30c	130.67$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.72	83	49.4%41 W · 42 L	+5.0wins	+0.06per pick	43cpaid	+16.7%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xef2e…8d89backed Jets	41c	121.95$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	19	63.2%12 W · 7 L	+3.4wins	+0.18per pick	45cpaid	+42.1%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd9bd…8469backed Bills	71c	112.68$80 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$32.68	110	48.2%53 W · 57 L	+6.4wins	+0.06per pick	42cpaid	+9.7%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x611a…e63ebacked Jets	15c	108.82$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.32	24	4.2%1 W · 23 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	6cpaid	-72.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Jets	41c	103.45$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.45	532	53%282 W · 250 L	+19.1wins	+0.04per pick	49cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8307…ad90backed Jets	15c	100$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	18	11.1%2 W · 16 L	+1.0wins	+0.05per pick	6cpaid	+25.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x90c5…534cbacked Bills	70c	99.86$70 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30.22	183	36.1%66 W · 117 L	-5.8wins	-0.03per pick	39cpaid	-10.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x021a…b2d7backed Bills	61c	98.36$60 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$38.36	96	41.7%40 W · 56 L	-2.5wins	-0.03per pick	44cpaid	-6.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2391…3d6abacked Bills	55c	68.4$38 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30.78	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+0.7wins	+0.33per pick	67cpaid	+54.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Jets	40c	60.97$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.39	1,196	49.9%597 W · 599 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x15ca…0a0dbacked Jets	41c	60.97$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	21	19%4 W · 17 L	-3.9wins	-0.19per pick	38cpaid	-61.2%equal weight	41-0.09 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Jets	42c	56.89$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.89	394	47.7%188 W · 206 L	-7.3wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x742f…d673backed Jets	35c	50$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.5	323	47.4%153 W · 170 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Jets	42c	46.21$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.41	346	52.9%183 W · 163 L	+16.0wins	+0.05per pick	48cpaid	+11.1%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Jets	29c	43.6$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.72	160	45%72 W · 88 L	-2.3wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd62d…02ccbacked Bills	61c	40.98$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.98	199	54.8%109 W · 90 L	-4.8wins	-0.02per pick	57cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f4f…b4b3backed Jets	37c	40.54$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	88	37.5%33 W · 55 L	+3.3wins	+0.04per pick	34cpaid	+34.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaab6…607ebacked Jets	42c	40$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.8	127	56.7%72 W · 55 L	+8.4wins	+0.07per pick	50cpaid	+15.2%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6564…8846backed Bills	59c	37.29$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.29	41	58.5%24 W · 17 L	+4.5wins	+0.11per pick	48cpaid	+23.8%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd52b…783cbacked Bills	58c	34.3$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.3	23	39.1%9 W · 14 L	-1.5wins	-0.06per pick	46cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x27b1…592bbacked Bills	58c	25.86$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.86	31	41.9%13 W · 18 L	-4.6wins	-0.15per pick	57cpaid	-27.4%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xfc6b…d720backed Bills	58c	20$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.4	92	51.1%47 W · 45 L	-2.8wins	-0.03per pick	54cpaid	-7.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Bills (-6.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event