NFL · resolved market

Spread: Bills (-7.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2129d824cfd8e6e8f62bb8891dd3779d5cee9b8bf33a958d483e4042eead8c9c

Rebuilt 11 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Billsof Bills, Jets
Resolved: Jan 4, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $87,121
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $88,307

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $87,121 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NFL
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xe60a…6a47backed Bills	52c	25,941$13,429 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12,512.29	473	48.4%229 W · 244 L	+1.1wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	+0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Bills	51c	25,024$12,808 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12,215.45	533	48.4%258 W · 275 L	+1.7wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1d1a…0df6backed Jets	51c	16,429$8,414 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$8,414.37	168	60.7%102 W · 66 L	+18.7wins	+0.11per pick	50cpaid	+21.3%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Jets	50c	11,802$5,893 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,892.56	865	47.9%414 W · 451 L	-6.6wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Jets	50c	7,628$3,811 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,811.25	394	47.7%188 W · 206 L	-7.3wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d3b…c46bbacked Jets	49c	6,860$3,361 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,361.23	111	45.9%51 W · 60 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcf92…4bfdbacked Jets	49c	6,141$3,009 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,009.09	61	24.6%15 W · 46 L	-5.4wins	-0.09per pick	33cpaid	-43.9%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x24d8…e8a8backed Jets	47c	6,000$2,850 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,850	35	65.7%23 W · 12 L	+5.2wins	+0.15per pick	51cpaid	+29.9%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Jets	48c	5,946$2,879 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,879.12	568	52.3%297 W · 271 L	+26.3wins	+0.05per pick	48cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x06e6…87e6backed Bills	50c	5,000$2,500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,500	146	41.8%61 W · 85 L	-10.9wins	-0.07per pick	49cpaid	-12.9%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Jets	47c	3,289$1,546 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,546.41	1,196	49.9%597 W · 599 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Jets	50c	2,576$1,300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,300.35	650	48.3%314 W · 336 L	-0.8wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4940…05cbbacked Bills	47c	2,498$1,174 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,323.98	6	100%6 W · 0 L	+2.9wins	+0.48per pick	52cpaid	+100.8%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x1052…53dabacked Jets	40c	2,311$916 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$915.54	16	43.8%7 W · 9 L	-1.5wins	-0.09per pick	53cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x17cd…7423backed Bills	51c	1,188$606 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$582.26	17	58.8%10 W · 7 L	+1.5wins	+0.09per pick	50cpaid	+13.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb8c8…d8a4backed Jets	49c	1,020$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	8	62.5%5 W · 3 L	+1.0wins	+0.13per pick	50cpaid	+27.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x617b…a499backed Jets	49c	1,000$490 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$490	57	54.4%31 W · 26 L	+4.4wins	+0.08per pick	47cpaid	+13.2%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x80cf…427dbacked Bills	45c	1,000$450 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$550	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.7wins	-0.22per pick	56cpaid	-25.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xac97…a99ebacked Bills	45c	1,000$450 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$550	392	42.6%167 W · 225 L	-7.1wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-7.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ed3…bffcbacked Bills	49c	989.8$485 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$504.8	17	47.1%8 W · 9 L	-1.6wins	-0.09per pick	56cpaid	-18.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Jets	43c	845$361 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$360.85	736	51.2%377 W · 359 L	+25.9wins	+0.04per pick	48cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Bills	60c	775$466 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$309.11	315	43.2%136 W · 179 L	+6.9wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed Jets	49c	690$338 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$338.1	594	53.7%319 W · 275 L	+24.2wins	+0.04per pick	50cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc8ab…4f9cbacked Bills	47c	531.91$250 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$281.91	47	34%16 W · 31 L	-3.8wins	-0.08per pick	42cpaid	-29.5%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf0ac…4ec7backed Jets	35c	500.01$175 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$175.14	276	33.3%92 W · 184 L	-1.5wins	-0.01per pick	34cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Bills	49c	500$245 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$255	94	47.9%45 W · 49 L	-1.8wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa965…3565backed Jets	34c	500$170 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$170	194	39.2%76 W · 118 L	-11.5wins	-0.06per pick	45cpaid	-16%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8333…eb93backed Jets	49c	500$245 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$245	24	37.5%9 W · 15 L	-3.6wins	-0.15per pick	53cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x685d…22d6backed Bills	47c	458.09$215 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$242.79	72	59.7%43 W · 29 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	60cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3920…23e7backed Bills	46c	445.64$205 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$241.04	37	56.8%21 W · 16 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	56cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1733…1e15backed Bills	49c	408.16$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$208.16	204	43.6%89 W · 115 L	-7.9wins	-0.04per pick	47cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd4a4…3c66backed Bills	47c	400$188 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$212	98	56.1%55 W · 43 L	-2.3wins	-0.02per pick	59cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Jets	48c	365$175 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$175.2	137	56.2%77 W · 60 L	+8.6wins	+0.06per pick	50cpaid	+12%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6236…6881backed Jets	49c	310$152 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$151.9	109	48.6%53 W · 56 L	-2.3wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-8.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd0b7…fa4bbacked Jets	54c	278.49$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150.04	28	46.4%13 W · 15 L	-1.9wins	-0.07per pick	53cpaid	-9.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfd3f…44f1backed Bills	48c	268.75$129 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$139.75	21	42.9%9 W · 12 L	-1.2wins	-0.06per pick	48cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed Jets	51c	200$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102	553	45%249 W · 304 L	-9.0wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-7.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Jets	49c	200$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97	532	53%282 W · 250 L	+19.1wins	+0.04per pick	49cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5912…2fe0backed Bills	58c	173.08$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$73.08	32	53.1%17 W · 15 L	-0.9wins	-0.03per pick	56cpaid	-9.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Bills	46c	169.32$77 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$92.2	346	52.9%183 W · 163 L	+16.0wins	+0.05per pick	48cpaid	+11.1%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x34fa…f491backed Jets	49c	150$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.5	138	44.9%62 W · 76 L	-3.7wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9014…db4abacked Jets	49c	120$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.8	66	56.1%37 W · 29 L	+4.0wins	+0.06per pick	50cpaid	+14.2%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x90f9…e894backed Jets	49c	120$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.8	67	55.2%37 W · 30 L	+3.5wins	+0.05per pick	50cpaid	+12.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7e5f…06bfbacked Bills	47c	106.38$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$56.38	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.5wins	+0.53per pick	47cpaid	+112.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xda21…8646backed Jets	42c	104.4$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.85	41	43.9%18 W · 23 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac56…22edbacked Jets	55c	102.51$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.38	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.55per pick	55cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe50b…c2a8backed Bills	49c	100$49 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$51	243	52.7%128 W · 115 L	+4.5wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc5b5…7e80backed Jets	20c	100$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	207	57.5%119 W · 88 L	+17.5wins	+0.08per pick	49cpaid	+13.3%equal weight	58+0.08 edge/pick
0xe6f0…5701backed Jets	35c	100$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	49	44.9%22 W · 27 L	-1.1wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-22.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xef34…1d61backed Bills	80c	100$80 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20	141	58.9%83 W · 58 L	+4.0wins	+0.03per pick	56cpaid	+11.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6564…8846backed Bills	51c	98.04$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$48.04	41	58.5%24 W · 17 L	+4.5wins	+0.11per pick	48cpaid	+23.8%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6b79…3c8cbacked Bills	58c	86.21$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$36.21	128	43%55 W · 73 L	-8.4wins	-0.07per pick	50cpaid	-13%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Jets	49c	81$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.69	363	41.9%152 W · 211 L	-13.5wins	-0.04per pick	46cpaid	-9.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x65b5…a9f7backed Jets	49c	80$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.2	31	61.3%19 W · 12 L	+2.7wins	+0.09per pick	53cpaid	+20.3%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5af1…f988backed Jets	49c	80$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.2	32	62.5%20 W · 12 L	+3.2wins	+0.10per pick	53cpaid	+22.5%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa221…5b1fbacked Bills	47c	70.21$33 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$37.21	76	47.4%36 W · 40 L	+6.1wins	+0.08per pick	39cpaid	+17.8%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x261b…b32bbacked Bills	58c	69.5$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.19	24	58.3%14 W · 10 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	57cpaid	-7.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd2a2…004abacked Jets	43c	60$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.8	115	52.2%60 W · 55 L	+2.4wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Jets	35c	54.75$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.16	160	45%72 W · 88 L	-2.3wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa00f…8e56backed Bills	47c	51.74$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.19	294	39.5%116 W · 178 L	-6.4wins	-0.02per pick	42cpaid	-22.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Jets	47c	47.44$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.27	544	51.7%281 W · 263 L	+7.6wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf35…b327backed Bills	58c	43.19$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.19	169	46.7%79 W · 90 L	-7.2wins	-0.04per pick	51cpaid	-6.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9d28…7a6dbacked Jets	35c	42.85$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	209	44.5%93 W · 116 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Bills	45c	40$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22	320	43.8%140 W · 180 L	-2.7wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaab6…607ebacked Jets	50c	40$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.8	127	56.7%72 W · 55 L	+8.4wins	+0.07per pick	50cpaid	+15.2%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x216b…8528backed Bills	54c	37.04$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.04	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.5wins	+0.46per pick	54cpaid	+85.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3fbc…9cf6backed Jets	47c	34.01$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	75	50.7%38 W · 37 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d3f…7fecbacked Jets	49c	32.65$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	12	25%3 W · 9 L	-2.8wins	-0.23per pick	48cpaid	-49.6%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Bills	46c	31.87$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.09	163	49.7%81 W · 82 L	+4.1wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Bills	48c	31.01$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.13	1,065	51.3%546 W · 519 L	+25.3wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3da1…c13bbacked Bills	52c	29.99$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.4	94	56.4%53 W · 41 L	+3.0wins	+0.03per pick	53cpaid	+7.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Bills	50c	28.88$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.44	368	26.9%99 W · 269 L	-17.1wins	-0.05per pick	32cpaid	-21.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Jets	48c	25$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	103	53.4%55 W · 48 L	+7.9wins	+0.08per pick	46cpaid	+19.4%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0969…b289backed Jets	48c	24.83$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.92	25	40%10 W · 15 L	-2.5wins	-0.10per pick	50cpaid	-19.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0919…fcbcbacked Jets	50c	21.37$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.69	30	30%9 W · 21 L	-2.4wins	-0.08per pick	38cpaid	-32.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd62d…02ccbacked Bills	58c	18.97$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.97	199	54.8%109 W · 90 L	-4.8wins	-0.02per pick	57cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Bills (-7.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event