NFL · resolved market
Jets vs. Bills: O/U 37.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x156cede267a25267047e6c85d3f874cda5223e69d6a6edd4090e37bd63c0eb4a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,274
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,580
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,274 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Under | 46c | 7,325$3,396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,395.72 | 600 | 49.3%296 W · 304 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x201c…58bfbacked Over | 54c | 5,000$2,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,300 | 74 | 64.9%48 W · 26 L | +9.8wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Over | 53c | 2,532$1,342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,189.89 | 358 | 48.6%174 W · 184 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Under | 44c | 1,589$699 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$699.16 | 192 | 40.1%77 W · 115 L | -16.2wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 56c | 1,120$627 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$492.77 | 758 | 52.5%398 W · 360 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 56c | 710.51$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.62 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Under | 44c | 397$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.68 | 266 | 49.6%132 W · 134 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cd…b74cbacked Under | 46c | 200$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 191 | 24.6%47 W · 144 L | -11.8wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 48c | 200$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 650 | 48.3%314 W · 336 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 39c | 166.73$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.41 | 736 | 51.2%377 W · 359 L | +25.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f01…cbc2backed Over | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.29 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +4.4wins | +0.29per pick | 38cpaid | +69%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x021a…b2d7backed Over | 52c | 153.85$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.85 | 96 | 41.7%40 W · 56 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7373…22eabacked Over | 53c | 150$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.5 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3832…35e1backed Over | 55c | 145.45$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.45 | 164 | 51.2%84 W · 80 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fe2…6c07backed Under | 46c | 132.5$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Over | 52c | 106.15$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.95 | 532 | 53%282 W · 250 L | +19.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a2…004abacked Under | 48c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 115 | 52.2%60 W · 55 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 49c | 39.22$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.22 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa709…8d1dbacked Over | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Under | 47c | 31.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.89 | 209 | 44.5%93 W · 116 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 394 | 47.7%188 W · 206 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ecb…87ddbacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 114 | 59.6%68 W · 46 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff5a…d636backed Over | 56c | 19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.36 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -24%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Jets vs. Bills: O/U 37.5this page
- 1H Spread: Bills (-4.5)Bills won
- 1H Spread: Bills (-6.5)Bills won
- Jets vs. BillsBills won
- Jets vs. Bills: 1H MoneylineBills won
- Jets vs. Bills: 1H O/U 19.5Over won
- Jets vs. Bills: O/U 38.5Over won
- Jets vs. Bills: O/U 39.5Over won
- Jets vs. Bills: O/U 40.5Over won
- Spread: Bills (-10.5)Bills won
- Spread: Bills (-11.5)Bills won
- Spread: Bills (-12.5)Bills won
- Spread: Bills (-6.5)Bills won
- Spread: Bills (-7.5)Bills won
- Spread: Bills (-8.5)Bills won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.