NFL · resolved market
Jets vs. Bills: O/U 40.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9f3539760a0f83b33fb854beaccfed99b359be35cdf5b5ce720504f52c304c9b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $54,147
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $56,426
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $54,147 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc257…358ebacked Under | 57c | 50,000$28,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28,499.99 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | +4.9wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xebc0…fa41backed Over | 43c | 11,091$4,769 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,321.85 | 104 | 62.5%65 W · 39 L | +9.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ade…f5b0backed Over | 43c | 8,800$3,784 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,016 | 129 | 44.2%57 W · 72 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4da…3175backed Over | 43c | 6,050$2,602 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,448.5 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | +4.3wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +24%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 43c | 4,644$1,996 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,647.23 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb583…b0b3backed Over | 43c | 4,468$1,921 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,547.04 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8013…5b52backed Over | 43c | 3,351$1,453 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,897.5 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x696a…e23abacked Over | 43c | 2,549$1,096 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,452.84 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +4.3wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x68df…4815backed Over | 43c | 2,335$1,004 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,330.82 | 181 | 56.9%103 W · 78 L | +11.8wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9a10…543cbacked Over | 43c | 2,225$957 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,268.35 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x412f…30fabacked Over | 43c | 2,074$892 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,182.18 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 43c | 1,253$539 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$714.3 | 394 | 47.7%188 W · 206 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…758ebacked Over | 43c | 929$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$529.53 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +3.0wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8e15…53fabacked Over | 43c | 779.07$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$444.07 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Over | 43c | 465.12$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.12 | 204 | 43.6%89 W · 115 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae2…20a3backed Over | 54c | 360.43$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.8 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 46c | 360.43$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.8 | 736 | 51.2%377 W · 359 L | +25.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7140…47e3backed Over | 43c | 232.56$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.56 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +15%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4109…7e24backed Under | 52c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 154 | 53.9%83 W · 71 L | +10.8wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa60d…2204backed Over | 48c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd903…bf9dbacked Under | 55c | 22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 154 | 46.8%72 W · 82 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Jets vs. Bills: O/U 40.5this page
- 1H Spread: Bills (-4.5)Bills won
- 1H Spread: Bills (-6.5)Bills won
- Jets vs. BillsBills won
- Jets vs. Bills: 1H MoneylineBills won
- Jets vs. Bills: 1H O/U 19.5Over won
- Jets vs. Bills: O/U 37.5Over won
- Jets vs. Bills: O/U 38.5Over won
- Jets vs. Bills: O/U 39.5Over won
- Spread: Bills (-10.5)Bills won
- Spread: Bills (-11.5)Bills won
- Spread: Bills (-12.5)Bills won
- Spread: Bills (-6.5)Bills won
- Spread: Bills (-7.5)Bills won
- Spread: Bills (-8.5)Bills won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.