NFL · resolved market

Spread: Bills (-12.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x68c899ca0de66623e2201a1eef8b1de0d1045c7b8e15c9500809f21b3de0a21e

Rebuilt 10 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Billsof Bills, Jets
Resolved: Jan 4, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $312,150
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $313,419

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $312,150 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 90 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NFL
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xc257…358ebacked Jets	52c	132,755$68,632 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68,632.45	51	54.9%28 W · 23 L	+4.9wins	+0.10per pick	45cpaid	+39.5%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0d3b…c46bbacked Bills	52c	123,691$64,002 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$59,688.54	111	45.9%51 W · 60 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x37e4…c991backed Jets	48c	100,000$48,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48,000	93	59.1%55 W · 38 L	+10.2wins	+0.11per pick	48cpaid	+22.4%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x1d1a…0df6backed Jets	51c	50,000$25,500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25,500	168	60.7%102 W · 66 L	+18.7wins	+0.11per pick	50cpaid	+21.3%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0x26e7…cc6cbacked Bills	48c	45,750$22,164 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23,586.09	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-1.0wins	-0.24per pick	49cpaid	-48.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Bills	48c	21,136$10,135 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11,000.96	758	52.5%398 W · 360 L	+21.9wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Jets	49c	19,030$9,281 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$9,280.59	865	47.9%414 W · 451 L	-6.6wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Bills	48c	10,529$5,054 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,475.08	568	52.3%297 W · 271 L	+26.3wins	+0.05per pick	48cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8e68…d99bbacked Bills	48c	10,000$4,800 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,200	135	60%81 W · 54 L	+14.7wins	+0.11per pick	49cpaid	+21.3%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x1d7a…b22fbacked Bills	49c	8,857$4,340 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,517.14	44	56.8%25 W · 19 L	+4.1wins	+0.09per pick	47cpaid	+17.5%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x57a8…6933backed Bills	48c	6,383$3,064 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,319.16	224	50%112 W · 112 L	+8.0wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	+10.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Bills	48c	6,367$3,064 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,302.84	1,196	49.9%597 W · 599 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcb43…3c74backed Jets	50c	4,500$2,250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,250	265	47.2%125 W · 140 L	+10.4wins	+0.04per pick	43cpaid	+11.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x52b4…34a8backed Bills	50c	4,000$2,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,000	196	51.5%101 W · 95 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	+2.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Bills	50c	3,790$1,895 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,895	770	52.7%406 W · 364 L	+24.8wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x24d8…e8a8backed Bills	48c	3,000$1,440 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,560	35	65.7%23 W · 12 L	+5.2wins	+0.15per pick	51cpaid	+29.9%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Bills	48c	2,616$1,256 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,360.53	532	53%282 W · 250 L	+19.1wins	+0.04per pick	49cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Jets	51c	2,358$1,203 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,202.58	266	49.6%132 W · 134 L	+0.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1244…c851backed Bills	48c	2,000$960 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,040	101	56.4%57 W · 44 L	+7.0wins	+0.07per pick	49cpaid	+14.4%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Bills	48c	1,145$550 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$595.4	1,065	51.3%546 W · 519 L	+25.3wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa51…a910backed Bills	49c	1,020$500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$520.41	6	50%3 W · 3 L	+0.3wins	+0.05per pick	45cpaid	+37%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf967…8cd4backed Bills	50c	1,000$500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$500	52	34.6%18 W · 34 L	-1.1wins	-0.02per pick	37cpaid	-19.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7865…4af9backed Bills	49c	965.31$473 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$492.31	16	56.3%9 W · 7 L	+0.5wins	+0.03per pick	53cpaid	+6.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6e82…752cbacked Jets	52c	873.44$454 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$454.19	35	48.6%17 W · 18 L	+1.4wins	+0.04per pick	45cpaid	-16.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a59…eb2ebacked Bills	48c	800$384 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$416	139	59%82 W · 57 L	+12.5wins	+0.09per pick	50cpaid	+19.1%equal weight	58+0.08 edge/pick
0xf5a7…63e7backed Bills	49c	612.24$300 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$312.24	172	51.7%89 W · 83 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb8a0…35b6backed Bills	48c	510.65$245 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$265.54	19	47.4%9 W · 10 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-8.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc210…39fcbacked Bills	48c	420$202 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$218.4	66	63.6%42 W · 24 L	+9.7wins	+0.15per pick	49cpaid	+30.2%equal weight	62+0.11 edge/pick
0x1733…1e15backed Bills	48c	416.67$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$216.67	204	43.6%89 W · 115 L	-7.9wins	-0.04per pick	47cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb871…9f15backed Jets	50c	400$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	75	33.3%25 W · 50 L	-8.2wins	-0.11per pick	44cpaid	-27.7%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5179…2b29backed Bills	48c	400$192 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$208	140	60.7%85 W · 55 L	+14.3wins	+0.10per pick	50cpaid	+23.8%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Bills	48c	400$192 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$208	205	55.6%114 W · 91 L	+15.7wins	+0.08per pick	48cpaid	+17.1%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2c4a…8e5dbacked Bills	48c	400$192 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$208	176	56.3%99 W · 77 L	+16.3wins	+0.09per pick	47cpaid	+21.1%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc599…2cecbacked Bills	48c	300$144 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$156	169	57.4%97 W · 72 L	+15.7wins	+0.09per pick	48cpaid	+21.3%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd079…8db3backed Bills	48c	240$115 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$124.8	117	58.1%68 W · 49 L	+9.5wins	+0.08per pick	50cpaid	+16.3%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x4d58…2073backed Bills	48c	240$115 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$124.8	118	59.3%70 W · 48 L	+11.2wins	+0.09per pick	50cpaid	+19.7%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3fbc…9cf6backed Bills	48c	208.33$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$108.33	75	50.7%38 W · 37 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2816…6ad7backed Jets	52c	200$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104	32	56.3%18 W · 14 L	+2.5wins	+0.08per pick	49cpaid	+10.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x12fe…38cfbacked Bills	50c	200$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$100	315	40.6%128 W · 187 L	+3.0wins	+0.01per pick	40cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x83c1…32f7backed Bills	55c	181.82$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$81.82	49	40.8%20 W · 29 L	-2.6wins	-0.05per pick	46cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa60b…c728backed Bills	48c	180$86 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$93.6	120	57.5%69 W · 51 L	+9.6wins	+0.08per pick	50cpaid	+15.7%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0xc383…a540backed Bills	48c	180$86 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$93.6	112	65.2%73 W · 39 L	+16.1wins	+0.14per pick	51cpaid	+29.8%equal weight	63+0.12 edge/pick
0xa97e…7753backed Bills	48c	160$77 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$83.2	104	61.5%64 W · 40 L	+12.5wins	+0.12per pick	50cpaid	+25.4%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0xa800…cc71backed Bills	48c	140$67 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$72.8	96	59.4%57 W · 39 L	+9.2wins	+0.10per pick	50cpaid	+21%equal weight	58+0.08 edge/pick
0x2692…2698backed Bills	48c	130$62 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$67.6	118	56.8%67 W · 51 L	+9.1wins	+0.08per pick	49cpaid	+15.3%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf2d9…0092backed Bills	48c	127.67$61 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$66.39	62	46.8%29 W · 33 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed Jets	50c	125.99$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.49	245	47.8%117 W · 128 L	+8.6wins	+0.03per pick	44cpaid	+4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7398…f4b6backed Bills	48c	120$58 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$62.4	67	52.2%35 W · 32 L	+2.4wins	+0.04per pick	49cpaid	+6.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3f1f…f56bbacked Bills	48c	120$58 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$62.4	101	55.4%56 W · 45 L	+6.0wins	+0.06per pick	50cpaid	+15.2%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x864c…735fbacked Bills	48c	120$58 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$62.4	67	55.2%37 W · 30 L	+4.1wins	+0.06per pick	49cpaid	+13.5%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcc0e…0fbdbacked Bills	48c	120$58 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$62.4	123	56.9%70 W · 53 L	+6.8wins	+0.06per pick	51cpaid	+11.4%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0fad…aa0fbacked Bills	48c	120$58 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$62.4	110	58.2%64 W · 46 L	+11.0wins	+0.10per pick	48cpaid	+19.4%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa48d…b023backed Bills	48c	120$58 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$62.4	103	59.2%61 W · 42 L	+9.5wins	+0.09per pick	50cpaid	+22.2%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa620…ca56backed Bills	48c	120$58 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$62.4	97	57.7%56 W · 41 L	+7.9wins	+0.08per pick	50cpaid	+18.7%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0ee5…96c2backed Bills	48c	120$58 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$62.4	110	56.4%62 W · 48 L	+7.9wins	+0.07per pick	49cpaid	+14.8%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb3e4…d6b2backed Bills	48c	120$58 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$62.4	155	56.8%88 W · 67 L	+13.4wins	+0.09per pick	48cpaid	+19.4%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb171…7d2bbacked Bills	48c	104.17$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$54.17	4	75%3 W · 1 L	+0.8wins	+0.19per pick	56cpaid	+54.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1941…c47fbacked Bills	48c	100$48 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$52	101	55.4%56 W · 45 L	+5.9wins	+0.06per pick	50cpaid	+12.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe70c…c938backed Bills	50c	100$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50	124	47.6%59 W · 65 L	+4.1wins	+0.03per pick	44cpaid	+3.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd0b7…fa4bbacked Jets	56c	89.29$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	28	46.4%13 W · 15 L	-1.9wins	-0.07per pick	53cpaid	-9.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4109…7e24backed Bills	48c	81.47$39 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42.37	154	53.9%83 W · 71 L	+10.8wins	+0.07per pick	47cpaid	+10.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Jets	45c	80.84$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.5	736	51.2%377 W · 359 L	+25.9wins	+0.04per pick	48cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa204…e66fbacked Bills	48c	80$38 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$41.6	109	64.2%70 W · 39 L	+15.4wins	+0.14per pick	50cpaid	+30.1%equal weight	63+0.12 edge/pick
0xe601…c728backed Bills	48c	70$34 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$36.4	107	61.7%66 W · 41 L	+12.0wins	+0.11per pick	51cpaid	+21.9%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa408…d831backed Bills	49c	68.59$34 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$34.98	53	47.2%25 W · 28 L	-0.9wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d28…7a6dbacked Bills	48c	62.33$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$32.1	209	44.5%93 W · 116 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x31ce…88cdbacked Bills	48c	60$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.2	133	57.1%76 W · 57 L	+9.2wins	+0.07per pick	50cpaid	+15.9%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x84fc…9db4backed Bills	48c	60$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.2	96	59.4%57 W · 39 L	+8.5wins	+0.09per pick	50cpaid	+21.1%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xeb01…2783backed Bills	48c	60$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.2	124	59.7%74 W · 50 L	+12.0wins	+0.10per pick	50cpaid	+20.4%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x96f4…8081backed Bills	48c	60$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.2	116	58.6%68 W · 48 L	+10.1wins	+0.09per pick	50cpaid	+19.2%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8bdf…8adabacked Bills	48c	60$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.2	104	64.4%67 W · 37 L	+15.3wins	+0.15per pick	50cpaid	+31.2%equal weight	63+0.12 edge/pick
0x7cae…bf8abacked Bills	48c	60$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.2	124	58.1%72 W · 52 L	+10.6wins	+0.09per pick	49cpaid	+16.8%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9adf…3f2fbacked Bills	48c	60$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.2	103	61.2%63 W · 40 L	+11.3wins	+0.11per pick	50cpaid	+24.5%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0xf99a…5487backed Bills	48c	60$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.2	105	65.7%69 W · 36 L	+16.6wins	+0.16per pick	50cpaid	+33.8%equal weight	64+0.13 edge/pick
0x6afd…5cb1backed Bills	48c	60$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.2	91	62.6%57 W · 34 L	+11.1wins	+0.12per pick	50cpaid	+26.9%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0xe9ea…810abacked Bills	48c	60$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.2	91	64.8%59 W · 32 L	+12.5wins	+0.14per pick	51cpaid	+28.5%equal weight	62+0.11 edge/pick
0xdcf7…bcbebacked Bills	48c	60$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.2	114	63.2%72 W · 42 L	+14.5wins	+0.13per pick	50cpaid	+26.6%equal weight	62+0.10 edge/pick
0xd2dc…b3c5backed Bills	48c	60$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.2	101	61.4%62 W · 39 L	+11.3wins	+0.11per pick	50cpaid	+24.4%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x6b82…2d2abacked Bills	48c	60$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.2	108	64.8%70 W · 38 L	+15.5wins	+0.14per pick	50cpaid	+29.4%equal weight	63+0.12 edge/pick
0xea2e…d695backed Bills	48c	60$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.2	107	57.9%62 W · 45 L	+8.8wins	+0.08per pick	50cpaid	+15.7%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x4edd…b1a1backed Bills	48c	60$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.2	98	62.2%61 W · 37 L	+11.8wins	+0.12per pick	50cpaid	+26.8%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0xe6df…22a9backed Bills	48c	60$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.2	108	61.1%66 W · 42 L	+11.4wins	+0.11per pick	51cpaid	+23.6%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x99ab…d706backed Bills	49c	40.82$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.82	17	35.3%6 W · 11 L	-3.2wins	-0.19per pick	54cpaid	-31%equal weight	42-0.08 edge/pick
0x1725…7405backed Bills	49c	40.81$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.81	14	57.1%8 W · 6 L	+1.0wins	+0.07per pick	50cpaid	+10.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3864…23e1backed Bills	55c	38.53$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.34	24	37.5%9 W · 15 L	+1.5wins	+0.06per pick	31cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xebcd…8e34backed Jets	53c	32$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.96	25	40%10 W · 15 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	42cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf104…d34cbacked Jets	48c	30.15$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.47	45	53.3%24 W · 21 L	+1.3wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdfdb…512cbacked Bills	48c	29.16$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.16	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	-1.2wins	-0.15per pick	52cpaid	-25.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7602…2775backed Bills	48c	28.88$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.02	65	58.5%38 W · 27 L	+6.5wins	+0.10per pick	49cpaid	+20.5%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa916…4f30backed Bills	49c	25.51$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.01	59	45.8%27 W · 32 L	-3.3wins	-0.06per pick	51cpaid	-12.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Bills (-12.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event