NFL · resolved market
Spread: Bills (-11.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x04b446f4f913d4a7458fc3a891b8d43da41f7c3b27c72e05fc1e5059c498aa3b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Billsof Bills, Jets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $61,145
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $62,265
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $61,145 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Jets | 48c | 43,476$21,030 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21,029.98 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb889…a430backed Bills | 53c | 28,051$14,867 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,183.94 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e68…d99bbacked Bills | 50c | 10,000$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,000 | 135 | 60%81 W · 54 L | +14.7wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1a…0df6backed Jets | 54c | 5,631$3,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,040.47 | 168 | 60.7%102 W · 66 L | +18.7wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Bills | 46c | 5,631$2,590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,040.47 | 736 | 51.2%377 W · 359 L | +25.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Jets | 47c | 3,698$1,738 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,738.06 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…f44ebacked Jets | 48c | 2,500$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 152 | 52.6%80 W · 72 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Jets | 47c | 2,387$1,129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,129.11 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1244…c851backed Bills | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 101 | 56.4%57 W · 44 L | +7.0wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d3b…c46bbacked Bills | 52c | 1,398$727 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$670.94 | 111 | 45.9%51 W · 60 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf08…9f3fbacked Bills | 52c | 1,155$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$554.86 | 80 | 56.3%45 W · 35 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Bills | 50c | 1,100$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$550 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bfa…bc94backed Bills | 54c | 925.93$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425.93 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a59…eb2ebacked Bills | 50c | 800$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 139 | 59%82 W · 57 L | +12.5wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8bf3…6077backed Jets | 49c | 500$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245 | 59 | 39%23 W · 36 L | -6.1wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc210…39fcbacked Bills | 51c | 420$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.8 | 66 | 63.6%42 W · 24 L | +9.7wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xaabc…a190backed Jets | 50c | 403$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed Bills | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 140 | 60.7%85 W · 55 L | +14.3wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Bills | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 205 | 55.6%114 W · 91 L | +15.7wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4a…8e5dbacked Bills | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 176 | 56.3%99 W · 77 L | +16.3wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xad88…3c1ebacked Bills | 51c | 392.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.16 | 125 | 48.8%61 W · 64 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked Bills | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 169 | 57.4%97 W · 72 L | +15.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Bills | 50c | 253$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.5 | 568 | 52.3%297 W · 271 L | +26.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41ed…1da9backed Bills | 50c | 250$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 107 | 52.3%56 W · 51 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd079…8db3backed Bills | 50c | 240$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 117 | 58.1%68 W · 49 L | +9.5wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4d58…2073backed Bills | 50c | 240$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 118 | 59.3%70 W · 48 L | +11.2wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xee21…3721backed Jets | 53c | 233.99$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.02 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -3.2wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9201…e578backed Bills | 47c | 191.16$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.42 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa60b…c728backed Bills | 50c | 180$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 120 | 57.5%69 W · 51 L | +9.6wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2025…db59backed Bills | 50c | 180$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 109 | 58.7%64 W · 45 L | +9.4wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc383…a540backed Bills | 50c | 180$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 112 | 65.2%73 W · 39 L | +16.1wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Bills | 50c | 180$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 163 | 60.1%98 W · 65 L | +16.9wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa97e…7753backed Bills | 50c | 160$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 104 | 61.5%64 W · 40 L | +12.5wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Bills | 51c | 150$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.5 | 80 | 48.8%39 W · 41 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4465…baafbacked Bills | 54c | 142.96$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.76 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa800…cc71backed Bills | 50c | 140$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 96 | 59.4%57 W · 39 L | +9.2wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +21%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2692…2698backed Bills | 50c | 130$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 118 | 56.8%67 W · 51 L | +9.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa408…d831backed Bills | 51c | 127.47$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.46 | 53 | 47.2%25 W · 28 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7398…f4b6backed Bills | 50c | 120$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1f…f56bbacked Bills | 50c | 120$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 101 | 55.4%56 W · 45 L | +6.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf79e…9a84backed Bills | 50c | 120$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 61 | 47.5%29 W · 32 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x864c…735fbacked Bills | 50c | 120$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 67 | 55.2%37 W · 30 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc0e…0fbdbacked Bills | 50c | 120$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 123 | 56.9%70 W · 53 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0fad…aa0fbacked Bills | 50c | 120$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 110 | 58.2%64 W · 46 L | +11.0wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa48d…b023backed Bills | 50c | 120$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 103 | 59.2%61 W · 42 L | +9.5wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa620…ca56backed Bills | 50c | 120$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 97 | 57.7%56 W · 41 L | +7.9wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee5…96c2backed Bills | 50c | 120$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 110 | 56.4%62 W · 48 L | +7.9wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e4…d6b2backed Bills | 50c | 120$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 155 | 56.8%88 W · 67 L | +13.4wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…c47fbacked Bills | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 101 | 55.4%56 W · 45 L | +5.9wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c2d…2570backed Bills | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 96 | 51%49 W · 47 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Bills | 57c | 84$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.12 | 356 | 48%171 W · 185 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa204…e66fbacked Bills | 50c | 80$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 109 | 64.2%70 W · 39 L | +15.4wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xe601…c728backed Bills | 50c | 70$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 107 | 61.7%66 W · 41 L | +12.0wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Jets | 49c | 61.3$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.04 | 209 | 44.5%93 W · 116 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31ce…88cdbacked Bills | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 133 | 57.1%76 W · 57 L | +9.2wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84fc…9db4backed Bills | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 96 | 59.4%57 W · 39 L | +8.5wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…2783backed Bills | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 124 | 59.7%74 W · 50 L | +12.0wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x96f4…8081backed Bills | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 116 | 58.6%68 W · 48 L | +10.1wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8bdf…8adabacked Bills | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 104 | 64.4%67 W · 37 L | +15.3wins | +0.15per pick | 50cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7cae…bf8abacked Bills | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 124 | 58.1%72 W · 52 L | +10.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9adf…3f2fbacked Bills | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 103 | 61.2%63 W · 40 L | +11.3wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf99a…5487backed Bills | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 105 | 65.7%69 W · 36 L | +16.6wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x6afd…5cb1backed Bills | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 91 | 62.6%57 W · 34 L | +11.1wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ea…810abacked Bills | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 91 | 64.8%59 W · 32 L | +12.5wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdcf7…bcbebacked Bills | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 114 | 63.2%72 W · 42 L | +14.5wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…b3c5backed Bills | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 101 | 61.4%62 W · 39 L | +11.3wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6b82…2d2abacked Bills | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 108 | 64.8%70 W · 38 L | +15.5wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a2…004abacked Jets | 55c | 60$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 115 | 52.2%60 W · 55 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea2e…d695backed Bills | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 107 | 57.9%62 W · 45 L | +8.8wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4edd…b1a1backed Bills | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 98 | 62.2%61 W · 37 L | +11.8wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe6df…22a9backed Bills | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 108 | 61.1%66 W · 42 L | +11.4wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Bills | 51c | 57.23$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.04 | 532 | 53%282 W · 250 L | +19.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Bills | 47c | 53.19$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.19 | 149 | 52.3%78 W · 71 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99ab…d706backed Bills | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -3.2wins | -0.19per pick | 54cpaid | -31%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d6…b8e3backed Bills | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.14per pick | 40cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Bills | 51c | 28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.72 | 94 | 47.9%45 W · 49 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…2775backed Bills | 51c | 27.72$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.58 | 65 | 58.5%38 W · 27 L | +6.5wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Bills | 49c | 21.8$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.12 | 394 | 47.7%188 W · 206 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Jets | 53c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 758 | 52.5%398 W · 360 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9930…2afcbacked Bills | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Bills (-11.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Bills (-4.5)Bills won
- 1H Spread: Bills (-6.5)Bills won
- Jets vs. BillsBills won
- Jets vs. Bills: 1H MoneylineBills won
- Jets vs. Bills: 1H O/U 19.5Over won
- Jets vs. Bills: O/U 37.5Over won
- Jets vs. Bills: O/U 38.5Over won
- Jets vs. Bills: O/U 39.5Over won
- Jets vs. Bills: O/U 40.5Over won
- Spread: Bills (-10.5)Bills won
- Spread: Bills (-12.5)Bills won
- Spread: Bills (-6.5)Bills won
- Spread: Bills (-7.5)Bills won
- Spread: Bills (-8.5)Bills won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.