NFL · resolved market
Spread: Rams (-9.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3bb463effdc19ba00ed57e903df8a043861fb746786500380e2cf0abb512897e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Ramsof Rams, Cardinals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,527
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,718
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,527 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc9c8…44fbbacked Cardinals | 30c | 4,297$1,288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,288.25 | 148 | 37.2%55 W · 93 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0e3…29ebbacked Rams | 74c | 4,041$2,990 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,050.53 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Cardinals | 49c | 1,800$882 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$882 | 650 | 48.3%314 W · 336 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Cardinals | 41c | 1,508$622 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$622.32 | 194 | 39.2%76 W · 118 L | -11.5wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -16%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Rams | 59c | 1,398$820 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$578.18 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Rams | 52c | 1,046$543 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$503.77 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1341…0853backed Rams | 53c | 608.36$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.93 | 81 | 64.2%52 W · 29 L | +12.1wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +137.5%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Cardinals | 48c | 510.31$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.95 | 568 | 52.3%297 W · 271 L | +26.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…758ebacked Rams | 40c | 510$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.1 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +3.0wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Rams | 47c | 500$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265 | 204 | 43.6%89 W · 115 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Cardinals | 33c | 461.99$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.56 | 276 | 33.3%92 W · 184 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09ae…004ebacked Cardinals | 28c | 341.11$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.88 | 148 | 18.2%27 W · 121 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Rams | 52c | 308.87$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.49 | 473 | 48.4%229 W · 244 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x927f…e7e7backed Rams | 67c | 300$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99 | 206 | 32%66 W · 140 L | -10.8wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Rams | 71c | 227.58$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.81 | 502 | 42.4%213 W · 289 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Cardinals | 31c | 182.1$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.59 | 294 | 39.5%116 W · 178 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9bd…8469backed Rams | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 110 | 48.2%53 W · 57 L | +6.4wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee7e…b1e0backed Cardinals | 51c | 99.99$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Rams | 50c | 87$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.14 | 533 | 48.4%258 W · 275 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Cardinals | 45c | 55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.57 | 320 | 43.8%140 W · 180 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Cardinals | 49c | 54$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.46 | 363 | 41.9%152 W · 211 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd25c…2bdcbacked Rams | 67c | 44.3$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.62 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.22per pick | 56cpaid | -46%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2b7b…ae8bbacked Rams | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Rams | 40c | 41.48$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x036a…4c9abacked Cardinals | 60c | 41.48$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Cardinals | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 127 | 56.7%72 W · 55 L | +8.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd62d…02ccbacked Rams | 45c | 33.26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.26 | 199 | 54.8%109 W · 90 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e08…15ebbacked Rams | 68c | 31.77$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.28 | 21 | 81%17 W · 4 L | +6.1wins | +0.29per pick | 52cpaid | +51%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fd…bd30backed Cardinals | 54c | 29$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc44…3b40backed Rams | 57c | 22.24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +5.1wins | +0.29per pick | 49cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Rams | 46c | 22$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 304 | 42.4%129 W · 175 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8e7…6031backed Rams | 77c | 12.95$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.93 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Rams (-9.5)this page
- Cardinals vs. RamsRams won
- Cardinals vs. Rams: 1H O/U 25.5Under won
- Cardinals vs. Rams: O/U 45.5Over won
- Cardinals vs. Rams: O/U 46.5Over won
- Cardinals vs. Rams: O/U 47.5Over won
- Cardinals vs. Rams: O/U 48.5Over won
- Cardinals vs. Rams: O/U 49.5Over won
- Spread: Rams (-10.5)Rams won
- Spread: Rams (-13.5)Rams won
- Spread: Rams (-14.5)Rams won
- Spread: Rams (-4.5)Rams won
- Spread: Rams (-7.5)Rams won
- Spread: Rams (-8.5)Rams won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.