NFL · resolved market
Spread: Rams (-10.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x76ee85c943455234e6247cea0d239aa43813541f00ef8cdf18252fa608f7467f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Ramsof Rams, Cardinals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,442
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $49,680
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,442 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xce26…8e06backed Rams | 55c | 4,800$2,653 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,147.02 | 83 | 45.8%38 W · 45 L | -5.6wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1341…0853backed Rams | 57c | 3,649$2,080 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,569 | 81 | 64.2%52 W · 29 L | +12.1wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +137.5%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe02f…669fbacked Cardinals | 9c | 3,103$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.67 | 49 | 20.4%10 W · 39 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x611a…e63ebacked Cardinals | 6c | 2,800$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157 | 24 | 4.2%1 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e7…caa8backed Cardinals | 5c | 2,554$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.48 | 54 | 9.3%5 W · 49 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83c8…26f0backed Cardinals | 9c | 2,200$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Cardinals | 43c | 1,929$829 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$829.4 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb589…33d4backed Cardinals | 9c | 1,666$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.94 | 74 | 35.1%26 W · 48 L | +7.3wins | +0.10per pick | 25cpaid | +57.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8d6d…aeb9backed Cardinals | 44c | 1,440$634 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$633.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb6…2abbbacked Cardinals | 7c | 1,200$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 27 | 11.1%3 W · 24 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…f17abacked Cardinals | 11c | 1,000$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 49 | 14.3%7 W · 42 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Rams | 18c | 520.04$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$424.43 | 600 | 49.3%296 W · 304 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Rams | 77c | 370.1$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.42 | 356 | 48%171 W · 185 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe463…f7b2backed Cardinals | 45c | 280$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf79a…56c2backed Cardinals | 41c | 239.8$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.32 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Cardinals | 43c | 231.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.09 | 294 | 39.5%116 W · 178 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff9…ce7abacked Rams | 62c | 161.37$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.37 | 116 | 50.9%59 W · 57 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Cardinals | 38c | 156.37$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.42 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Cardinals | 17c | 120$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.82 | 320 | 43.8%140 W · 180 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce0e…fb2ebacked Rams | 52c | 73.98$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.35 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Cardinals | 41c | 53$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.49 | 473 | 48.4%229 W · 244 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Rams | 52c | 45.58$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.88 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +5.9wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbb4c…2f6bbacked Rams | 60c | 40.95$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.55 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -4.2wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Rams | 52c | 37.39$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.1 | 342 | 47.4%162 W · 180 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e08…15ebbacked Rams | 59c | 35.92$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.55 | 21 | 81%17 W · 4 L | +6.1wins | +0.29per pick | 52cpaid | +51%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x09ae…004ebacked Cardinals | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 148 | 18.2%27 W · 121 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Rams | 59c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.38 | 363 | 41.9%152 W · 211 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Rams (-10.5)this page
- Cardinals vs. RamsRams won
- Cardinals vs. Rams: 1H O/U 25.5Under won
- Cardinals vs. Rams: O/U 45.5Over won
- Cardinals vs. Rams: O/U 46.5Over won
- Cardinals vs. Rams: O/U 47.5Over won
- Cardinals vs. Rams: O/U 48.5Over won
- Cardinals vs. Rams: O/U 49.5Over won
- Spread: Rams (-13.5)Rams won
- Spread: Rams (-14.5)Rams won
- Spread: Rams (-4.5)Rams won
- Spread: Rams (-7.5)Rams won
- Spread: Rams (-8.5)Rams won
- Spread: Rams (-9.5)Rams won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.