NFL · resolved market
Spread: Rams (-13.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x700d1a2f0a31835302b314d4b038bd0d9aac9608abe41a1ce8c71be089d23789
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Ramsof Rams, Cardinals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $45,699
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,076
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,699 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9249…4f16backed Cardinals | 45c | 24,190$10,824 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,824.49 | 176 | 47.7%84 W · 92 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Rams | 56c | 10,157$5,683 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,473.65 | 358 | 48.6%174 W · 184 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb43…3c74backed Rams | 55c | 7,046$3,875 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,170.64 | 265 | 47.2%125 W · 140 L | +10.4wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Rams | 53c | 6,989$3,695 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,294.58 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Cardinals | 45c | 5,598$2,519 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,519.1 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x201c…58bfbacked Rams | 56c | 5,000$2,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,200 | 74 | 64.9%48 W · 26 L | +9.8wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x611a…e63ebacked Cardinals | 7c | 2,500$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163 | 24 | 4.2%1 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Rams | 42c | 2,092$888 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,203.94 | 736 | 51.2%377 W · 359 L | +25.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Cardinals | 58c | 1,939$1,125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,125.14 | 502 | 42.4%213 W · 289 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe02f…669fbacked Cardinals | 10c | 1,750$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178 | 49 | 20.4%10 W · 39 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8d7…c17bbacked Rams | 56c | 1,650$924 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$726 | 117 | 59.8%70 W · 47 L | +8.0wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e7…caa8backed Cardinals | 9c | 1,400$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 54 | 9.3%5 W · 49 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…f17abacked Cardinals | 9c | 1,400$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131 | 49 | 14.3%7 W · 42 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf26…6fe2backed Cardinals | 48c | 966.67$464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$464 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -3.3wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x83c8…26f0backed Cardinals | 6c | 600$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Cardinals | 45c | 444.44$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 204 | 43.6%89 W · 115 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb43…9d70backed Cardinals | 45c | 444.44$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 117 | 44.4%52 W · 65 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd402…5a50backed Rams | 56c | 380$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.2 | 92 | 65.2%60 W · 32 L | +6.0wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x889c…e375backed Rams | 56c | 267.86$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.86 | 59 | 47.5%28 W · 31 L | -4.7wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb6…2abbbacked Cardinals | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 27 | 11.1%3 W · 24 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Cardinals | 46c | 163.24$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.09 | 650 | 48.3%314 W · 336 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d1…4660backed Cardinals | 9c | 153.16$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 111 | 22.5%25 W · 86 L | +13.9wins | +0.13per pick | 10cpaid | +428.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Cardinals | 45c | 149$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.05 | 363 | 41.9%152 W · 211 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x021a…b2d7backed Rams | 54c | 148.15$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.15 | 96 | 41.7%40 W · 56 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Rams | 56c | 143.98$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.35 | 294 | 39.5%116 W · 178 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Cardinals | 45c | 136.6$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.47 | 544 | 51.7%281 W · 263 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a0…f575backed Cardinals | 46c | 109.35$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 45cpaid | +72.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b79…3c8cbacked Cardinals | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 128 | 43%55 W · 73 L | -8.4wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe70c…c938backed Rams | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 124 | 47.6%59 W · 65 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99c4…0c89backed Cardinals | 45c | 88.87$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.99 | 97 | 44.3%43 W · 54 L | +5.8wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Cardinals | 45c | 81$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.45 | 245 | 47.8%117 W · 128 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Cardinals | 17c | 73.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 320 | 43.8%140 W · 180 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Rams | 55c | 61.46$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.65 | 532 | 53%282 W · 250 L | +19.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf35…b327backed Cardinals | 47c | 53.19$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 169 | 46.7%79 W · 90 L | -7.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98d0…01a4backed Rams | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.64 | 96 | 52.1%50 W · 46 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9e…0db0backed Rams | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1cb…fb77backed Rams | 58c | 20.69$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.69 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Rams (-13.5)this page
- Cardinals vs. RamsRams won
- Cardinals vs. Rams: 1H O/U 25.5Under won
- Cardinals vs. Rams: O/U 45.5Over won
- Cardinals vs. Rams: O/U 46.5Over won
- Cardinals vs. Rams: O/U 47.5Over won
- Cardinals vs. Rams: O/U 48.5Over won
- Cardinals vs. Rams: O/U 49.5Over won
- Spread: Rams (-10.5)Rams won
- Spread: Rams (-14.5)Rams won
- Spread: Rams (-4.5)Rams won
- Spread: Rams (-7.5)Rams won
- Spread: Rams (-8.5)Rams won
- Spread: Rams (-9.5)Rams won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.