NFL · resolved market
Cardinals vs. Rams: O/U 47.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2617a198608e30c20b278aecb584c53338e029acda2ef51561c371087754d25a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $50,512
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $53,528
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $50,512 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbb2f…eca9backed Under | 48c | 23,654$11,344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,344.22 | 173 | 48%83 W · 90 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Over | 52c | 21,687$11,314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,373.03 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 47c | 5,315$2,489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,488.69 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 52c | 3,670$1,908 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,761.6 | 473 | 48.4%229 W · 244 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 47c | 3,659$1,706 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,705.79 | 394 | 47.7%188 W · 206 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x710c…892cbacked Over | 55c | 3,636$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,636.36 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Over | 54c | 3,093$1,670 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,422.78 | 191 | 52.9%101 W · 90 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Under | 45c | 2,383$1,072 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,072.35 | 192 | 40.1%77 W · 115 L | -16.2wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x24d8…e8a8backed Over | 55c | 2,383$1,311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,072.35 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +5.2wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x06e6…87e6backed Under | 47c | 1,596$745 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$745.1 | 146 | 41.8%61 W · 85 L | -10.9wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Over | 53c | 1,022$542 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480.34 | 94 | 47.9%45 W · 49 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe78e…55f0backed Under | 47c | 1,000$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +3.6wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 49c | 768.68$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.07 | 650 | 48.3%314 W · 336 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Under | 47c | 702.12$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 204 | 43.6%89 W · 115 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under | 22c | 655$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.1 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34cd…9675backed Under | 74c | 620$457 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$457.36 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +3.2wins | +0.21per pick | 59cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 26c | 561.71$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$413.48 | 502 | 42.4%213 W · 289 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Over | 51c | 340$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.6 | 533 | 48.4%258 W · 275 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Under | 47c | 297.87$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 280 | 47.5%133 W · 147 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Over | 52c | 260$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.8 | 594 | 53.7%319 W · 275 L | +24.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a45…41f6backed Under | 50c | 237.65$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under | 51c | 163.27$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.27 | 137 | 56.2%77 W · 60 L | +8.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b7b…ae8bbacked Over | 49c | 163.27$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.27 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 46c | 155$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.3 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf79a…56c2backed Over | 50c | 148.05$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.03 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Under | 47c | 128.81$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.16 | 209 | 44.5%93 W · 116 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0d…b99abacked Under | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.22per pick | 51cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaafa…dd84backed Over | 52c | 92.44$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.37 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Over | 54c | 83.27$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.07 | 320 | 43.8%140 W · 180 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15ca…0a0dbacked Under | 52c | 76.92$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -3.9wins | -0.19per pick | 38cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Over | 27c | 72$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.56 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +5.9wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 42c | 69.52$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.52 | 149 | 52.3%78 W · 71 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3230…1409backed Under | 70c | 59.53$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.67 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 75cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f0…5701backed Under | 58c | 58.34$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.81 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Over | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 346 | 52.9%183 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Under | 52c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 127 | 56.7%72 W · 55 L | +8.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Under | 49c | 35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -5.2wins | -0.17per pick | 52cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Over | 48c | 28.84$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 532 | 53%282 W · 250 L | +19.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 44c | 27.28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 342 | 47.4%162 W · 180 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Over | 78c | 18.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.1 | 148 | 44.6%66 W · 82 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cardinals vs. Rams: O/U 47.5this page
- Cardinals vs. RamsRams won
- Cardinals vs. Rams: 1H O/U 25.5Under won
- Cardinals vs. Rams: O/U 45.5Over won
- Cardinals vs. Rams: O/U 46.5Over won
- Cardinals vs. Rams: O/U 48.5Over won
- Cardinals vs. Rams: O/U 49.5Over won
- Spread: Rams (-10.5)Rams won
- Spread: Rams (-13.5)Rams won
- Spread: Rams (-14.5)Rams won
- Spread: Rams (-4.5)Rams won
- Spread: Rams (-7.5)Rams won
- Spread: Rams (-8.5)Rams won
- Spread: Rams (-9.5)Rams won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.