CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: los kogutos vs STATE (BO3)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf38434a836fd364971efa3ce19554816925e2ee67785ebfe661918343952cc6e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- STATEof los kogutos, STATE
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,360
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $47,312
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,360 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbec7…5977backed los kogutos | 74c | 10,000$7,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,399.98 | 576 | 47.6%274 W · 302 L | -25.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe42b…7ea9backed STATE | 28c | 5,659$1,577 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,082.02 | 508 | 33.5%170 W · 338 L | +14.2wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked los kogutos | 43c | 3,823$1,643 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,643.45 | 2,326 | 55.7%1,296 W · 1,030 L | +44.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf40f…8dcfbacked STATE | 35c | 3,245$1,147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,097.43 | 48 | 58.3%28 W · 20 L | +10.2wins | +0.21per pick | 37cpaid | +65.5%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf5…40ddbacked STATE | 46c | 2,030$934 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,096.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3db4…d69bbacked los kogutos | 55c | 1,758$971 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$970.64 | 750 | 56.8%426 W · 324 L | +47.8wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba05…f8c0backed STATE | 26c | 1,200$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$885.27 | 972 | 30%292 W · 680 L | -23.7wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdddc…ced2backed los kogutos | 69c | 711.36$491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490.84 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa042…62bdbacked los kogutos | 42c | 699.99$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | +5.8wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2de4…6234backed los kogutos | 54c | 685$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0787…a0f9backed los kogutos | 54c | 678$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d19…417ebacked los kogutos | 54c | 667$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2524…7e32backed STATE | 26c | 576.92$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$426.92 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.80per pick | 20cpaid | +444.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0da5…cf4bbacked STATE | 41c | 518.66$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.51 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed STATE | 40c | 444.44$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.66 | 5,830 | 37.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L | +79.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x762d…45a6backed STATE | 48c | 398.78$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.63 | 127 | 52%66 W · 61 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2496…50a5backed los kogutos | 53c | 397.01$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2905…6255backed los kogutos | 28c | 357.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 49 | 24.5%12 W · 37 L | -7.9wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x82bf…de71backed STATE | 62c | 341$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.23 | 623 | 50.9%317 W · 306 L | +18.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed STATE | 30c | 333.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.33 | 240 | 38.3%92 W · 148 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ca…3748backed STATE | 61c | 328.06$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.06 | 124 | 50%62 W · 62 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92d6…0550backed STATE | 49c | 314.02$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.15 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +2.9wins | +0.13per pick | 35cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe463…f7b2backed STATE | 49c | 305.92$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.85 | 328 | 44.5%146 W · 182 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c74…00bcbacked STATE | 27c | 296.61$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.8 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9cd…432cbacked STATE | 48c | 274.81$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.9 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1355…1e7bbacked STATE | 26c | 269.23$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.23 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.46per pick | 21cpaid | +277.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x00e0…8a94backed STATE | 38c | 263.16$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.16 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +2.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x86c8…c867backed STATE | 26c | 250$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185 | 95 | 40%38 W · 57 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41ed…bc89backed los kogutos | 61c | 229.51$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec48…d04cbacked los kogutos | 44c | 211.16$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.26 | 110 | 51.8%57 W · 53 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…1e5bbacked STATE | 50c | 200$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101 | 341 | 47.5%162 W · 179 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24c6…4a55backed STATE | 15c | 186.2$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.51 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +60.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed STATE | 43c | 171.18$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.07 | 170 | 34.7%59 W · 111 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe889…d0c3backed STATE | 49c | 164.82$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.65 | 94 | 33%31 W · 63 L | -10.2wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x61c1…0513backed los kogutos | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 133 | 63.9%85 W · 48 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdeb…4d84backed STATE | 46c | 152.63$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.63 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ab…9a41backed los kogutos | 55c | 145$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.26 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30a0…a458backed los kogutos | 49c | 142.47$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.81 | 63 | 33.3%21 W · 42 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked STATE | 56c | 142$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.19 | 67 | 46.3%31 W · 36 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb8…beaabacked STATE | 51c | 140$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.4 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74b3…c6a5backed los kogutos | 57c | 135.21$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.07 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed STATE | 57c | 134.06$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.06 | 211 | 39.3%83 W · 128 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bea…5d50backed los kogutos | 68c | 114$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.52 | 339 | 49%166 W · 173 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67cc…942fbacked STATE | 26c | 111.54$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.54 | 91 | 47.3%43 W · 48 L | +5.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0097…f101backed STATE | 71c | 84.44$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.2 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +2.9wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd75…1d27backed STATE | 41c | 73.26$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.26 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…3c7dbacked los kogutos | 56c | 71.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 149 | 50.3%75 W · 74 L | -10.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb16c…4ceabacked los kogutos | 52c | 67.83$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.96 | 157 | 56.1%88 W · 69 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96cb…75cbbacked STATE | 67c | 59.85$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.75 | 204 | 33.8%69 W · 135 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a46…ba91backed los kogutos | 71c | 56.62$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked STATE | 48c | 55.79$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.79 | 7,925 | 50.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L | +179.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7aab…685dbacked los kogutos | 68c | 55$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.15 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ab…f5c1backed STATE | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.05 | 91 | 44%40 W · 51 L | -7.4wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f93…bffabacked STATE | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.05 | 789 | 63.8%503 W · 286 L | -2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed STATE | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +3.9wins | +0.10per pick | 39cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x045c…5861backed los kogutos | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -5.0wins | -0.22per pick | 52cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2658…dfc7backed los kogutos | 63c | 49.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.38per pick | 72cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7d…4a9bbacked STATE | 55c | 48.57$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.81 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe4…0722backed STATE | 37c | 45.86$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.89 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.74per pick | 26cpaid | +349.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d6c…2854backed STATE | 44c | 45.84$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.83 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -5.0wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed STATE | 45c | 44.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.46 | 374 | 45.7%171 W · 203 L | -29.6wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xce0a…2d88backed los kogutos | 68c | 44.27$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 66 | 57.6%38 W · 28 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39f7…919bbacked los kogutos | 71c | 42.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2526…9f68backed los kogutos | 55c | 35.22$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.37 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3f9…d587backed STATE | 36c | 32.44$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.76 | 350 | 33.4%117 W · 233 L | +22.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5227…500abacked los kogutos | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf5b4…627bbacked los kogutos | 70c | 31.43$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 69cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc1c…9c01backed STATE | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89f3…04d0backed los kogutos | 66c | 27.35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -2.9wins | -0.13per pick | 65cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa5d4…c90ebacked los kogutos | 54c | 27.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a0…c18cbacked STATE | 42c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 41cpaid | +19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed los kogutos | 60c | 23.65$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 698 | 63%440 W · 258 L | +65.3wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfa71…d510backed STATE | 66c | 22.66$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.66 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb75e…1737backed los kogutos | 65c | 20.42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 229 | 42.8%98 W · 131 L | -9.7wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a05…5f34backed STATE | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 62cpaid | +67.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2910…4ca9backed STATE | 78c | 19.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked STATE | 73c | 16.44$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.44 | 229 | 31.4%72 W · 157 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: los kogutos vs STATE (BO3)this page
- Counter-Strike: los kogutos vs STATE - Map 1 WinnerSTATE won
- Counter-Strike: los kogutos vs STATE - Map 2 Winnerlos kogutos won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.