TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Wuning: Li Tu vs Alastair Gray

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Li Tuof Li Tu, Alastair Gray
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$76,824
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$82,301

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $76,824 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 120 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xcb84…08a9backed Alastair Gray50c13,822$6,933 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,932.539855.1%54 W · 44 L-2.6wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-6.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6aee…fad4backed Alastair Gray51c4,793$2,426 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,425.9224557.6%141 W · 104 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick56cpaid-4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbd52…df69backed Li Tu50c4,632$2,316 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,315.7826545.3%120 W · 145 L+5.0wins+0.02per pick43cpaid0%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x160b…4296backed Li Tu51c4,391$2,229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,161.661,65849.9%828 W · 830 L+7.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Li Tu79c2,981$2,345 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$635.654,53367.7%3,071 W · 1,462 L+306.6wins+0.07per pick61cpaid+5.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xde9f…d43cbacked Alastair Gray13c2,483$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$314.766,59950.7%3,343 W · 3,256 L+259.7wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-4.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked Li Tu49c2,203$1,090 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,112.5328141.6%117 W · 164 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x306e…3a7cbacked Li Tu50c2,010$1,005 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,00529649.7%147 W · 149 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc463…9a2fbacked Li Tu49c2,000$980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,02058232%186 W · 396 L-10.8wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5adf…a5e7backed Li Tu50c2,000$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,00025342.7%108 W · 145 L+8.2wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked Li Tu57c1,605$920 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$685.062,52339.6%1,000 W · 1,523 L-3.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-13.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed Alastair Gray21c1,383$287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$287.431,10641%454 W · 652 L+2.5wins0.00per pick41cpaid-19.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc79…d555backed Li Tu50c1,206$603 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6031100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x448d…3adebacked Li Tu50c1,094$547 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$546.932247.2%152 W · 170 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Li Tu49c1,000$490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5104,07639.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L+93.7wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+7.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0b58…8692backed Li Tu50c1,000$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$500450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+23.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdf37…8b49backed Li Tu49c1,000$490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51039534.4%136 W · 259 L-10.9wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-12.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x38c2…d3a7backed Li Tu60c990.41$593 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$397.3448851.6%252 W · 236 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdddc…ced2backed Alastair Gray47c918.69$427 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$427.498936%32 W · 57 L-3.3wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-15.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Alastair Gray10c902.14$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.9211,43543.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L+17.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe76d…5a75backed Li Tu49c899.97$444 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$455.9810646.2%49 W · 57 L-3.9wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5471…a236backed Alastair Gray24c868.46$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.0340548.1%195 W · 210 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-13.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…5e2abacked Alastair Gray5c867.46$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.777635.5%27 W · 49 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-16.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x06e1…8b57backed Li Tu49c837.11$413 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$424.554461.4%27 W · 17 L+4.3wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+24.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8d87…8dbbbacked Alastair Gray23c816.45$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.336944.4%164 W · 205 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-16.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x76f1…f655backed Alastair Gray25c722.07$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.7459253.5%317 W · 275 L+22.7wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+1.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd81f…6b75backed Li Tu51c711.63$363 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$348.797745.2%442 W · 535 L-0.9wins0.00per pick45cpaid-6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xecae…b906backed Li Tu49c600.46$294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$306.621,02646.8%480 W · 546 L+14.1wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e232backed Li Tu51c593.67$304 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$289.973,90150.1%1,953 W · 1,948 L-13.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Li Tu74c577.54$429 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.156,43954.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L+285.2wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+26.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7a5d…54dbbacked Alastair Gray11c552.88$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.532,41750.7%1,226 W · 1,191 L+78.7wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd038…8f51backed Alastair Gray34c536.78$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.744,28840.5%1,737 W · 2,551 L-139.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-20.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xce9d…3c05backed Alastair Gray55c530.81$292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291.91,61550.6%817 W · 798 L-17.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeaac…d71dbacked Li Tu51c475.78$243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$233.131,86545.6%851 W · 1,014 L+50.3wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Li Tu50c469.04$233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$236.017,13949.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L+109.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd035…f165backed Alastair Gray34c454.18$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.7526131.4%82 W · 179 L-10.8wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-24%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x80d3…97cabacked Li Tu76c445.56$339 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.931100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6770…c3bdbacked Alastair Gray16c432.31$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.4792352.5%485 W · 438 L+10.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Alastair Gray46c400$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.39,28644.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L-245.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6090…06e0backed Li Tu51c347.29$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.175549.1%27 W · 28 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+7.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x57fe…13c1backed Alastair Gray51c345.52$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.7910044%44 W · 56 L-4.9wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-17.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5e59…1520backed Alastair Gray51c325.43$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.9730744.6%137 W · 170 L+0.9wins0.00per pick44cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf84b…6455backed Alastair Gray7c320.47$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.051217.4%9 W · 112 L-7.9wins-0.07per pick14cpaid-48.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1f8d…6790backed Li Tu51c308.79$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.311442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-19.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4bec…37d3backed Li Tu77c300$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7014272.5%103 W · 39 L+9.5wins+0.07per pick66cpaid+11.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x79d7…893dbacked Li Tu49c296.76$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.355046%23 W · 27 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe7a5…f64abacked Li Tu77c256.8$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.5984963.1%536 W · 313 L+0.5wins0.00per pick63cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf9ef…20ebbacked Li Tu50c200$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1001,24551.9%646 W · 599 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa877…2e20backed Li Tu50c199.86$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.9381047.9%388 W · 422 L+30.1wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+9.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x54cf…baf2backed Li Tu51c191.05$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.011100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x93ef…468bbacked Alastair Gray50c186.53$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.2713450%67 W · 67 L+6.7wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+15.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa163…934dbacked Alastair Gray13c186.09$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.130715.6%48 W · 259 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick15cpaid+0.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x7baf…4acabacked Alastair Gray49c178.05$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.253171%22 W · 9 L+6.5wins+0.21per pick50cpaid+43.5%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Li Tu76c176.36$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.557,81650.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L+95.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb1d1…6b2cbacked Alastair Gray22c170.69$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.141145.5%5 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid-17.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc90d…e7d6backed Li Tu52c168.09$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.683231.3%10 W · 22 L-6.5wins-0.20per pick52cpaid-37.9%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Li Tu49c157.72$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.771,43524.3%348 W · 1,087 L-36.2wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-22.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5625…6c2abacked Li Tu73c135.22$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.8512831.3%40 W · 88 L-20.8wins-0.16per pick48cpaid-36.8%equal weight35-0.14 edge/pick
0xcc55…a069backed Li Tu73c134.86$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.486550.8%33 W · 32 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb2e3…4874backed Li Tu76c121.52$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.6791880.5%739 W · 179 L+39.3wins+0.04per pick76cpaid+5.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xaffe…7140backed Alastair Gray48c116.26$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.843242.4%183 W · 249 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa509…ae46backed Li Tu75c112.16$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.126,78648.8%3,310 W · 3,476 L+56.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-15.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Alastair Gray44c110$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.864,76547%2,238 W · 2,527 L-82.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d49…e00abacked Li Tu76c109.79$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.8917460.3%105 W · 69 L+10.8wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+4.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xca29…a1d0backed Alastair Gray47c104.27$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.1825452%132 W · 122 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x489d…f6e3backed Li Tu51c100$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$491,83153%971 W · 860 L-45.3wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x216b…fe46backed Li Tu49c100$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5130452%158 W · 146 L+9.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+8.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6c6a…c76abacked Alastair Gray49c98.92$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.472634.6%9 W · 17 L-4.2wins-0.16per pick51cpaid-32.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x4158…4961backed Alastair Gray52c93.93$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.559744.3%43 W · 54 L-4.1wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-17.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x59a1…8263backed Li Tu73c93.49$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.918559.5%110 W · 75 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3212…9541backed Li Tu53c91.98$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.42665.4%17 W · 9 L+3.8wins+0.15per pick51cpaid+28.8%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Alastair Gray36c91.06$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.3958048.4%281 W · 299 L+16.3wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-3.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Alastair Gray28c88.81$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.583,27013.8%450 W · 2,820 L-549.1wins-0.17per pick31cpaid-57.4%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Li Tu48c81.57$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.427,72447.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L+41.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x63c4…26f2backed Alastair Gray49c81.03$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.7117145.6%78 W · 93 L-4.6wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-8.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x69ee…6e35backed Li Tu50c80$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.433651.5%173 W · 163 L+10.8wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x36b3…e421backed Li Tu50c77.6$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.885250%426 W · 426 L+22.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x510e…b8e0backed Li Tu76c77.33$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.176246.8%29 W · 33 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-17.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ed…72efbacked Li Tu50c76.5$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.2538754.3%210 W · 177 L+11.2wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+4.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ec3…34a7backed Li Tu74c70.66$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.0727240.4%110 W · 162 L-25.4wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-26.8%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0x133a…f9d1backed Li Tu49c70$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.729947.5%142 W · 157 L-8.5wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbb8e…08c1backed Li Tu79c62.2$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.132,11855.9%1,185 W · 933 L+40.1wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb883…3994backed Li Tu77c55.96$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.721549.8%107 W · 108 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-10.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb155…9111backed Li Tu73c55.21$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.944841.7%20 W · 28 L-2.7wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-26.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Alastair Gray38c54.6$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.614,60248.3%2,223 W · 2,379 L+34.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-8.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x95c5…d5d3backed Alastair Gray48c52.83$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.260158.6%352 W · 249 L+2.6wins0.00per pick58cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x78a1…5551backed Alastair Gray50c49.85$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.9390335.8%323 W · 580 L-15.3wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-14.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1dd2…9e07backed Li Tu50c48.99$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.492,41851.7%1,249 W · 1,169 L+10.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa64c…34f2backed Alastair Gray49c48.47$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.7533747.2%159 W · 178 L-14.3wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-8.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5647…8237backed Li Tu80c47.42$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.4816560%99 W · 66 L+0.5wins0.00per pick60cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9663…5b70backed Li Tu50c44.62$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.3185748.2%413 W · 444 L+33.7wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+13%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe6b3…f8c1backed Alastair Gray31c44.09$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.6615641.7%65 W · 91 L-8.1wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-24.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xeb76…7ffebacked Li Tu49c42.65$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.7596844.4%430 W · 538 L-1.9wins0.00per pick45cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0045…9007backed Alastair Gray50c42.59$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.3426548.7%129 W · 136 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb5b9…948abacked Alastair Gray51c40.53$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.7242358.6%248 W · 175 L-7.8wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-5.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5ef0…d45bbacked Alastair Gray25c40$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1021259.4%126 W · 86 L+7.6wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+3.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa93d…0599backed Alastair Gray51c39.41$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.12161.9%13 W · 8 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x099f…c1e1backed Li Tu55c39.39$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.5595846.6%446 W · 512 L+7.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbdbe…e45bbacked Li Tu51c38.06$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.6533048.8%161 W · 169 L-12.3wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-9.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfc7e…70ecbacked Li Tu50c37.68$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.031,00145.4%454 W · 547 L+0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid+1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.