TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Yakutou Brothers vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - PGL Wallachia: Asia Closed Qualifier Playoffs

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Team Nemesisof Yakutou Brothers, Team Nemesis
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$75,490
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$76,571

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $75,490 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 118 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf9b5…09eebacked Team Nemesis53c15,636$8,308 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,328.3955157%314 W · 237 L+17.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3f10…76b3backed Yakutou Brothers61c9,676$5,869 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,869.4110%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe092…477cbacked Yakutou Brothers47c7,501$3,525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,525.34650%3 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-26.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x61fa…7f62backed Yakutou Brothers52c3,980$2,051 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,051.0346451.5%239 W · 225 L-12.1wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Team Nemesis56c3,547$1,981 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,565.4289749.6%445 W · 452 L+22.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdddc…ced2backed Team Nemesis57c1,521$864 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$657.14333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.25per pick59cpaid-41.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfc3e…776bbacked Yakutou Brothers19c1,502$289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$288.8719251.6%99 W · 93 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x86b1…c094backed Yakutou Brothers10c1,362$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.3465625.6%168 W · 488 L+14.7wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5fbe…7d07backed Yakutou Brothers21c1,350$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289.5425444.5%113 W · 141 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9a3f…914abacked Yakutou Brothers27c1,344$362 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$362.295339.6%21 W · 32 L-6.5wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-31.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xda5f…2e9bbacked Yakutou Brothers54c1,306$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70011557.4%66 W · 49 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x65b6…2108backed Yakutou Brothers4c1,215$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.821751.6%112 W · 105 L+5.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f81…5410backed Yakutou Brothers1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10100%0 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7abc…9ff7backed Yakutou Brothers42c777.74$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3302020%4 W · 16 L-5.5wins-0.27per pick47cpaid-62.5%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0x3c2b…825ebacked Yakutou Brothers47c648.3$304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304.510637.7%40 W · 66 L-9.3wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-21.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Yakutou Brothers37c631.5$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230.6686949%426 W · 443 L-3.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-15%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Team Nemesis49c531.57$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$271.651,82145%820 W · 1,001 L+33.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb676…260abacked Team Nemesis61c495.5$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.5366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick67cpaid+8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x762d…45a6backed Team Nemesis35c475$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$308.759955.6%55 W · 44 L+8.8wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+14.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc345…2c35backed Team Nemesis77c414.56$319 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.35580%4 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.11per pick69cpaid+14.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4819…c342backed Team Nemesis79c400$316 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.15per pick60cpaid+18.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf399…2afbbacked Team Nemesis51c389.96$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.79250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x00ce…3f01backed Yakutou Brothers40c312$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.815345.8%70 W · 83 L-7.2wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-13.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5d1e…d5dfbacked Team Nemesis54c309.16$167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14212654.8%69 W · 57 L+6.7wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+4.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x64a8…7bc3backed Team Nemesis78c299.97$234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.9914661%89 W · 57 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick59cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yakutou Brothers38c287.48$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.066169.7%60 W · 556 L-2.0wins0.00per pick10cpaid-53.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc3f3…b080backed Yakutou Brothers64c282.72$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.9410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x61d9…e0cebacked Team Nemesis36c269.55$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.866150.8%31 W · 30 L+7.2wins+0.12per pick39cpaid+9.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x53ad…5bd4backed Team Nemesis56c267.98$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.911100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2312…016fbacked Team Nemesis58c258.97$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.97633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-42.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdbb4…48bebacked Yakutou Brothers60c233.83$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1402924.1%7 W · 22 L-8.0wins-0.28per pick52cpaid-58.3%equal weight34-0.15 edge/pick
0xd15e…db59backed Team Nemesis51c218$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10611845.8%54 W · 64 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x05d3…c06abacked Team Nemesis52c213.05$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.2273554.7%402 W · 333 L-3.5wins0.00per pick55cpaid-2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x92b5…2defbacked Yakutou Brothers17c209.25$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.9695841.1%394 W · 564 L+32.7wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+1.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa1ed…32d3backed Team Nemesis57c208.95$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.85580%4 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.30per pick50cpaid+64.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x730e…fca0backed Yakutou Brothers25c204.74$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.5520535.1%72 W · 133 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-21%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1816…2ee6backed Team Nemesis58c203.26$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.3737549.3%185 W · 190 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa57…a128backed Team Nemesis50c200$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10046664.2%299 W · 167 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick62cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf5b3…7c36backed Yakutou Brothers19c200$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$381816.7%3 W · 15 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick10cpaid+55.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8479…37f8backed Team Nemesis52c199.98$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.99333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-35.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yakutou Brothers42c183.23$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.6134063.2%215 W · 125 L+38.9wins+0.11per pick52cpaid+13%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x03a2…7e3ebacked Yakutou Brothers57c176.63$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10012248.4%59 W · 63 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d96…4f2ebacked Yakutou Brothers53c174.68$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.9810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe99e…0084backed Yakutou Brothers55c170.16$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.4787645.7%400 W · 476 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc85d…6832backed Yakutou Brothers27c162.06$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.6212438.7%48 W · 76 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-10%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8640…0e7dbacked Team Nemesis63c158.73$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.73633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.27per pick61cpaid-50.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x13e9…7cd4backed Team Nemesis65c153.94$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.949045.6%41 W · 49 L+3.7wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+15.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1f35…514fbacked Team Nemesis66c151.06$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.061100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a1e…6f16backed Team Nemesis70c143.42$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.425366%35 W · 18 L+3.6wins+0.07per pick59cpaid+10.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfc8f…3782backed Yakutou Brothers45c140.55$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.8314142.6%60 W · 81 L+4.9wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6760…3ad4backed Team Nemesis65c136.45$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.21837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.17per pick55cpaid-39%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1bcb…b05abacked Team Nemesis61c120.82$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.8538049.2%187 W · 193 L+13.1wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+168.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b84…de18backed Yakutou Brothers14c111.5$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.61560%3 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick55cpaid-8.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x557d…2823backed Yakutou Brothers19c105.26$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick24cpaid+27.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Team Nemesis47c104.29$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.8573841.7%308 W · 430 L-5.2wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe70d…dd35backed Yakutou Brothers14c100$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14520%1 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.31per pick51cpaid-75%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x40ba…7ea5backed Team Nemesis60c100$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4053757.7%310 W · 227 L+11.8wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2722…697abacked Team Nemesis71c94.29$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.24580%4 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.13per pick67cpaid+17.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb8ab…f5c1backed Yakutou Brothers59c85.31$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5013157.3%75 W · 56 L-0.4wins0.00per pick58cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x90fc…3e3abacked Yakutou Brothers59c84.75$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x850a…e5dbbacked Team Nemesis72c84.74$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.78061.3%49 W · 31 L-4.9wins-0.06per pick67cpaid-9.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa35b…0eccbacked Yakutou Brothers36c81.43$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2917251.2%88 W · 84 L-11.0wins-0.06per pick58cpaid-15.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x445c…78bcbacked Yakutou Brothers71c81.4$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.5510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaf0e…3197backed Team Nemesis64c78.34$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.34475%3 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick68cpaid+8.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b05…078abacked Yakutou Brothers52c77.27$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$404348.8%21 W · 22 L-4.8wins-0.11per pick60cpaid-20.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf60c…f540backed Yakutou Brothers28c72.86$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.265362.3%33 W · 20 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf111…3b8ebacked Yakutou Brothers34c71.46$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.33560%3 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+11.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b1c…2a3ebacked Yakutou Brothers56c71.43$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$409054.4%49 W · 41 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe1d…219ebacked Yakutou Brothers46c69.57$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.26per pick59cpaid-47.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x37f8…b5e5backed Yakutou Brothers55c63.53$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.015137.3%19 W · 32 L-3.7wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-24.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0f4d…6c41backed Yakutou Brothers47c62.55$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.4333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick50cpaid-43.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6996…cf9abacked Team Nemesis42c58.41$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.694027.5%11 W · 29 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick23cpaid-5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xec41…1134backed Yakutou Brothers47c52.05$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.215854.4%86 W · 72 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-6.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7181…1b0abacked Yakutou Brothers58c51.72$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3014965.8%98 W · 51 L+8.8wins+0.06per pick60cpaid+12.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5960…d692backed Yakutou Brothers33c50$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x47bd…a2d4backed Yakutou Brothers28c49.99$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.7510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d89…40a4backed Yakutou Brothers59c49.59$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.33333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick53cpaid-33.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed Team Nemesis54c47.9$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.031,57743.9%692 W · 885 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xedf1…6eb1backed Yakutou Brothers42c42.04$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.720%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3712…b462backed Yakutou Brothers70c41.57$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.110%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc14d…f137backed Team Nemesis57c40.7$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.51675%12 W · 4 L+1.6wins+0.10per pick65cpaid+19.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd3ba…33b9backed Yakutou Brothers38c40.4$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.48922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.9wins-0.21per pick43cpaid-23.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5215…3164backed Yakutou Brothers56c39.99$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.22035%7 W · 13 L-2.7wins-0.14per pick49cpaid-35.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5747…7fdfbacked Team Nemesis58c39.85$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.859754.6%53 W · 44 L-4.0wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4d86…58d7backed Yakutou Brothers56c39.21$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.19per pick52cpaid+54.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1c83…6f40backed Team Nemesis52c38.29$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.2920457.8%118 W · 86 L+6.4wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbdde…af48backed Team Nemesis55c36.8$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.481050%5 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-25.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7995…210abacked Yakutou Brothers56c36.77$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.7110%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9466…1f15backed Team Nemesis55c36.36$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.362100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd5b6…c5debacked Team Nemesis70c35.82$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.821100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+43.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf70e…571ebacked Team Nemesis49c34.88$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.88250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee47…a253backed Yakutou Brothers47c34.33$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8a69…aec0backed Team Nemesis52c33.51$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.091145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef62…d6eabacked Yakutou Brothers40c33.42$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.4210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8df8…a552backed Yakutou Brothers47c33.11$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.5618253.3%97 W · 85 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x00db…4be2backed Team Nemesis61c32.79$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.79825%2 W · 6 L-2.6wins-0.33per pick58cpaid-59%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xace6…5556backed Yakutou Brothers46c32.55$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1523347.2%110 W · 123 L-15.1wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-11.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x85fd…4d74backed Yakutou Brothers31c32.13$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x663b…6a3ebacked Team Nemesis53c32.08$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.083100%3 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+55.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc216…6e99backed Yakutou Brothers41c32.01$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1310%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.