NFL · resolved market

Spread: Chiefs (-3.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd57afcf0b7729da895cb13f2cf6c57bac4475cbf7b3efa0b5da0e948e112d38e

Rebuilt 1 hour ago.

Winning outcome: Titansof Chiefs, Titans
Resolved: Dec 21, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $126,965
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $118,155

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $126,965 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NFL
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x16b2…a881backed Chiefs	45c	57,323$25,654 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25,654.11	865	47.9%414 W · 451 L	-6.6wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4335…fc2fbacked Titans	55c	40,000$22,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18,000	111	68.5%76 W · 35 L	+18.5wins	+0.17per pick	52cpaid	+34.3%equal weight	65+0.14 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Chiefs	48c	15,000$7,200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$7,200	358	48.6%174 W · 184 L	-3.0wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8b4…f05dbacked Chiefs	44c	11,392$5,012 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,012.43	111	46.8%52 W · 59 L	-2.6wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-6.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Titans	52c	10,489$5,454 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,034.84	831	47.8%397 W · 434 L	+13.7wins	+0.02per pick	46cpaid	+8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa25…05e8backed Chiefs	50c	10,000$5,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,000	29	48.3%14 W · 15 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb2f…eca9backed Titans	56c	10,000$5,600 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,400	173	48%83 W · 90 L	+2.8wins	+0.02per pick	46cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x72db…af7dbacked Titans	56c	10,000$5,600 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,400	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.4wins	+0.44per pick	56cpaid	+78.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed Titans	57c	7,500$4,275 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,225	240	53.8%129 W · 111 L	+9.1wins	+0.04per pick	50cpaid	+26.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7a88…41ccbacked Titans	52c	5,914$3,075 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,838.72	44	40.9%18 W · 26 L	-2.5wins	-0.06per pick	47cpaid	-24.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Chiefs	47c	5,605$2,646 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,645.59	1,196	49.9%597 W · 599 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x437c…f458backed Titans	52c	3,000$1,560 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,440	67	59.7%40 W · 27 L	+6.6wins	+0.10per pick	50cpaid	+17.1%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Titans	50c	2,744$1,372 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,371.9	169	55%93 W · 76 L	+15.0wins	+0.09per pick	46cpaid	+6.1%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb2e2…4e99backed Titans	52c	2,308$1,200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,107.69	66	47%31 W · 35 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Titans	55c	2,104$1,157 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$946.69	650	48.3%314 W · 336 L	-0.8wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Chiefs	1c	2,050$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.5	684	46.1%315 W · 369 L	+16.9wins	+0.02per pick	44cpaid	-6.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Titans	50c	1,851$926 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$925.6	346	52.9%183 W · 163 L	+16.0wins	+0.05per pick	48cpaid	+11.1%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x57a8…6933backed Titans	56c	1,791$1,003 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$788.08	224	50%112 W · 112 L	+8.0wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	+10.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Chiefs	43c	1,782$770 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$769.71	473	48.4%229 W · 244 L	+1.1wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	+0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Chiefs	44c	1,766$777 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$777.1	544	51.7%281 W · 263 L	+7.6wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Chiefs	43c	1,657$714 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$713.57	1,065	51.3%546 W · 519 L	+25.3wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbfdf…8e02backed Titans	54c	1,600$864 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$736	150	44.7%67 W · 83 L	+4.8wins	+0.03per pick	41cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa8d7…c17bbacked Chiefs	48c	1,400$672 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$672	117	59.8%70 W · 47 L	+8.0wins	+0.07per pick	53cpaid	+13.5%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xac97…a99ebacked Chiefs	47c	1,357$635 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$634.73	392	42.6%167 W · 225 L	-7.1wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-7.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Titans	55c	1,291$706 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$585.4	502	42.4%213 W · 289 L	-5.6wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Chiefs	1c	1,100$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	647	47.3%306 W · 341 L	+42.5wins	+0.07per pick	41cpaid	+56.4%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6911…947cbacked Chiefs	48c	1,042$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	85	40%34 W · 51 L	-3.8wins	-0.05per pick	45cpaid	-17.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Chiefs	1c	1,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	600	49.3%296 W · 304 L	+21.0wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Titans	52c	960$499 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$460.8	314	50%157 W · 157 L	+9.4wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	+4.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Titans	52c	889.6$463 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$427.08	533	48.4%258 W · 275 L	+1.7wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2160…bcb3backed Chiefs	44c	571.06$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250	175	47.4%83 W · 92 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe727…5e8dbacked Chiefs	49c	408.16$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	175	48%84 W · 91 L	-7.6wins	-0.04per pick	52cpaid	-9.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8532…738bbacked Titans	59c	400$236 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$164	119	46.2%55 W · 64 L	-5.9wins	-0.05per pick	51cpaid	-11.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x544e…2d9fbacked Titans	53c	400$212 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$188	25	60%15 W · 10 L	+1.9wins	+0.07per pick	53cpaid	+17.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Chiefs	44c	370.65$165 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$164.53	363	41.9%152 W · 211 L	-13.5wins	-0.04per pick	46cpaid	-9.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xad88…3c1ebacked Titans	58c	344.83$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$144.83	125	48.8%61 W · 64 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa82b…5220backed Chiefs	49c	300$147 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$147	139	35.3%49 W · 90 L	-1.9wins	-0.01per pick	37cpaid	-12.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed Titans	56c	270$151 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$118.8	553	45%249 W · 304 L	-9.0wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-7.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xce6d…28b5backed Titans	52c	250$130 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$120	206	50.5%104 W · 102 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x258e…d16cbacked Chiefs	48c	208.33$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	87	47.1%41 W · 46 L	-3.2wins	-0.04per pick	51cpaid	-7.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0b80…657fbacked Titans	52c	207.99$108 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$99.83	157	46.5%73 W · 84 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce26…8e06backed Titans	53c	200$106 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$94	83	45.8%38 W · 45 L	-5.6wins	-0.07per pick	53cpaid	-14.3%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4451…c6afbacked Titans	55c	200$109 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$91	40	32.5%13 W · 27 L	-4.9wins	-0.12per pick	45cpaid	-29.8%equal weight	42-0.08 edge/pick
0x6941…efd5backed Titans	56c	178.57$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$78.57	132	53%70 W · 62 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4c75…8c7abacked Titans	53c	136.28$72 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$64.05	12	25%3 W · 9 L	-2.4wins	-0.20per pick	45cpaid	-46%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Chiefs	44c	132$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.43	163	49.7%81 W · 82 L	+4.1wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x036a…4c9abacked Chiefs	43c	116.28$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	56	48.2%27 W · 29 L	-2.3wins	-0.04per pick	52cpaid	-8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc757…f18cbacked Titans	53c	113.21$60 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$53.21	71	57.7%41 W · 30 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	59cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c0f…09debacked Chiefs	46c	106.38$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.93	78	41%32 W · 46 L	-2.7wins	-0.03per pick	44cpaid	-7.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5aaa…6a28backed Titans	57c	105$60 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$45.15	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.4wins	+0.43per pick	57cpaid	+75.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf9e4…24c2backed Chiefs	48c	104.17$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	91	51.6%47 W · 44 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x681d…4cbfbacked Chiefs	48c	104.17$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	170	47.1%80 W · 90 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x90c5…534cbacked Chiefs	43c	100$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43	183	36.1%66 W · 117 L	-5.8wins	-0.03per pick	39cpaid	-10.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8214…ef72backed Titans	58c	100$58 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42	83	50.6%42 W · 41 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x201a…66a8backed Titans	58c	100$58 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42	17	41.2%7 W · 10 L	-2.4wins	-0.14per pick	55cpaid	-24.5%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Titans	51c	100$51 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$49	159	52.2%83 W · 76 L	+5.5wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+1.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb0cb…85babacked Chiefs	44c	100$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44	56	39.3%22 W · 34 L	-4.1wins	-0.07per pick	47cpaid	-15.4%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x591a…aec2backed Chiefs	45c	100$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	58	53.4%31 W · 27 L	+1.9wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+9.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0362…449ebacked Chiefs	48c	100$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48	151	44.4%67 W · 84 L	-7.9wins	-0.05per pick	50cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe864…ce58backed Titans	56c	100$56 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$44	96	51%49 W · 47 L	-1.9wins	-0.02per pick	53cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x496c…941cbacked Chiefs	48c	97.77$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.93	8	50%4 W · 4 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1216…7288backed Titans	53c	94.34$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$44.34	22	31.8%7 W · 15 L	-0.6wins	-0.03per pick	35cpaid	-11.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xed21…a2a1backed Titans	52c	87.33$45 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$41.92	61	65.6%40 W · 21 L	+6.8wins	+0.11per pick	54cpaid	+20.6%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4e66…921dbacked Titans	52c	67$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$32.16	14	42.9%6 W · 8 L	-1.2wins	-0.08per pick	51cpaid	-16.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Chiefs	44c	64.21$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.25	160	45%72 W · 88 L	-2.3wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xacbe…85d4backed Chiefs	43c	61.4$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.4	39	48.7%19 W · 20 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	+2.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Titans	53c	58$31 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27	532	53%282 W · 250 L	+19.1wins	+0.04per pick	49cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdca6…9a97backed Chiefs	46c	54.13$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.9	36	52.8%19 W · 17 L	+1.8wins	+0.05per pick	48cpaid	+12.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1787…c311backed Titans	58c	51.72$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.72	112	60.7%68 W · 44 L	+10.3wins	+0.09per pick	51cpaid	+21.8%equal weight	58+0.08 edge/pick
0x34fa…f491backed Chiefs	43c	50$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.5	138	44.9%62 W · 76 L	-3.7wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1226…abd8backed Chiefs	45c	50$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.5	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-1.2wins	-0.40per pick	40cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3920…23e7backed Titans	51c	49.02$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.02	37	56.8%21 W · 16 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	56cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6365…df4ebacked Titans	58c	43.1$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.1	22	54.5%12 W · 10 L	+1.0wins	+0.05per pick	50cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd1a7…07cdbacked Chiefs	49c	43$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.07	38	57.9%22 W · 16 L	+4.8wins	+0.13per pick	45cpaid	+30.5%equal weight	58+0.08 edge/pick
0xd9d1…ff0cbacked Titans	52c	42.83$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.56	62	54.8%34 W · 28 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	55cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4a87…fb21backed Chiefs	48c	41.67$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	203	54.7%111 W · 92 L	+11.9wins	+0.06per pick	49cpaid	+12.4%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfc2e…ae9abacked Titans	56c	40$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.6	11	63.6%7 W · 4 L	+2.9wins	+0.27per pick	37cpaid	+73.8%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x583b…9249backed Titans	56c	40$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.6	6	66.7%4 W · 2 L	+1.0wins	+0.16per pick	50cpaid	+47.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed Titans	49c	39.22$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20	259	56.8%147 W · 112 L	+14.8wins	+0.06per pick	51cpaid	+12.7%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3bf7…5e63backed Chiefs	51c	39.22$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.6wins	-0.29per pick	29cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4fb4…8830backed Chiefs	55c	36.36$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	-1.0wins	-0.12per pick	50cpaid	-23.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x49d7…1635backed Titans	54c	20$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.2	14	50%7 W · 7 L	+0.5wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	+37.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Spread: Chiefs (-3.5)this page
Chiefs vs. TitansTitans won
Chiefs vs. Titans: 1H MoneylineTitans won
Chiefs vs. Titans: O/U 37.5Under won
Chiefs vs. Titans: O/U 41.5Under won
Spread: Chiefs (-11.5)Titans won
Spread: Chiefs (-4.5)Titans won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Chiefs (-3.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event