NFL · resolved market
Spread: Chiefs (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x73ab137cb87bff25950fd8ab6e3b47235482998974c49c3bc1b84537fb4fddc1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Titansof Chiefs, Titans
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,169
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,190
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,169 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Chiefs | 44c | 4,986$2,182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,182.23 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x437c…f458backed Titans | 56c | 3,400$1,904 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,496 | 67 | 59.7%40 W · 27 L | +6.6wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Titans | 57c | 1,500$860 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$639.99 | 650 | 48.3%314 W · 336 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc17f…50aabacked Titans | 56c | 514.27$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.28 | 112 | 54.5%61 W · 51 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Chiefs | 42c | 214.83$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.11 | 363 | 41.9%152 W · 211 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ae4…1df2backed Chiefs | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee14…8055backed Chiefs | 42c | 155.03$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.11 | 62 | 50%31 W · 31 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Titans | 50c | 150$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -2.8wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Chiefs | 45c | 99.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.99 | 151 | 44.4%67 W · 84 L | -7.9wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc9c8…44fbbacked Titans | 55c | 73.84$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.23 | 148 | 37.2%55 W · 93 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb95e…c6d6backed Titans | 59c | 60$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.6 | 112 | 53.6%60 W · 52 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f55…bae8backed Chiefs | 42c | 59.52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 160 | 48.1%77 W · 83 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Titans | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 758 | 52.5%398 W · 360 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Titans | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 159 | 52.2%83 W · 76 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5696…b3aabacked Titans | 55c | 47.27$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.27 | 65 | 60%39 W · 26 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c56…81a9backed Chiefs | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -6.0wins | -0.33per pick | 67cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Chiefs (-4.5)this page
- Chiefs vs. TitansTitans won
- Chiefs vs. Titans: 1H MoneylineTitans won
- Chiefs vs. Titans: O/U 37.5Under won
- Chiefs vs. Titans: O/U 41.5Under won
- Spread: Chiefs (-11.5)Titans won
- Spread: Chiefs (-3.5)Titans won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.