NBA · resolved market

Spread: Hawks (-5.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb56ce9ee8ce58f9f2e95d11a00eae68c5eb897ae6e699221a850dc1b772bad25

Rebuilt 12 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Hornetsof Hawks, Hornets
Resolved: Dec 18, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $198,576
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $200,796

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $198,576 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 86 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x869b…c625backed Hornets	50c	89,302$44,651 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$44,650.8	49	61.2%30 W · 19 L	+6.3wins	+0.13per pick	48cpaid	+33.2%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4335…fc2fbacked Hawks	46c	55,555$25,555 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25,555.3	173	54.3%94 W · 79 L	+3.6wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xafba…e61bbacked Hornets	54c	54,111$29,220 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24,890.85	478	48.1%230 W · 248 L	-9.9wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd71a…9498backed Hawks	50c	52,393$26,136 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26,136	145	49%71 W · 74 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbcc9…26fbbacked Hornets	50c	20,000$10,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10,000	44	56.8%25 W · 19 L	+7.5wins	+0.17per pick	40cpaid	+26%equal weight	62+0.11 edge/pick
0x00b2…cf16backed Hawks	50c	18,000$9,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$9,000	13	30.8%4 W · 9 L	-2.5wins	-0.19per pick	50cpaid	-45%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x1341…0853backed Hawks	50c	11,721$5,894 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,894.07	257	53.7%138 W · 119 L	+4.4wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Hawks	50c	10,457$5,228 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,228.4	1,212	48.3%586 W · 626 L	-20.4wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb784…61d0backed Hawks	49c	5,992$2,936 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,935.86	293	51.5%151 W · 142 L	+3.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Hawks	49c	5,888$2,875 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,875.18	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9e2f…ec47backed Hornets	51c	3,440$1,754 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,685.66	747	48.5%362 W · 385 L	+8.6wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	+2.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d3a…7b63backed Hawks	50c	3,333$1,667 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,666.5	762	49.5%377 W · 385 L	-8.7wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9700…0e70backed Hawks	50c	2,900$1,450 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,450	18	22.2%4 W · 14 L	-3.5wins	-0.19per pick	42cpaid	-16.6%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7634…1b96backed Hornets	54c	2,674$1,444 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,230.07	240	51.3%123 W · 117 L	-0.7wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-2.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8e68…d99bbacked Hawks	49c	2,626$1,286 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,286.5	100	57%57 W · 43 L	+5.1wins	+0.05per pick	52cpaid	+10.2%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4278…0e92backed Hornets	52c	2,604$1,354 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,250	416	52.2%217 W · 199 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xce99…637ebacked Hawks	49c	1,857$910 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$910	74	58.1%43 W · 31 L	+6.5wins	+0.09per pick	49cpaid	+18.8%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0xd092…342abacked Hornets	54c	1,852$1,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$851.85	462	58.2%269 W · 193 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	58cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Hawks	48c	1,565$750 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$749.72	1,139	48.3%550 W · 589 L	+3.5wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6f72…0841backed Hawks	50c	1,550$775 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$775	102	55.9%57 W · 45 L	-1.4wins	-0.01per pick	57cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7e5…2d3abacked Hornets	53c	1,415$750 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$664.76	653	39.5%258 W · 395 L	-24.6wins	-0.04per pick	43cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Hawks	47c	1,236$580 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$580.49	2,796	50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L	+27.9wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Hawks	50c	1,224$608 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$607.84	2,361	48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L	-41.8wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Hornets	52c	1,213$631 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$582.24	1,908	54.5%1,040 W · 868 L	+53.7wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x62d8…4867backed Hornets	51c	979.59$500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$480	16	56.3%9 W · 7 L	+0.8wins	+0.05per pick	51cpaid	+10.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf391…3fc7backed Hawks	49c	979.59$480 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$480	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-2.5wins	-0.49per pick	49cpaid	-100%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd04d…bfc2backed Hawks	48c	626.97$301 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300.94	2,435	49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L	+30.3wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2bd5…26ccbacked Hornets	52c	600$314 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$286	516	51%263 W · 253 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdb9c…d01bbacked Hornets	52c	528.85$275 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$253.85	65	60%39 W · 26 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	60cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf2c2…4de7backed Hawks	50c	500$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250	491	42.6%209 W · 282 L	+12.1wins	+0.02per pick	40cpaid	+9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed Hornets	53c	499.99$265 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$235	736	49.9%367 W · 369 L	-5.8wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84d7…298fbacked Hornets	51c	489.39$250 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$239.8	263	36.5%96 W · 167 L	-9.1wins	-0.03per pick	40cpaid	-11.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8717…49a8backed Hawks	48c	409.75$197 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$196.68	356	51.1%182 W · 174 L	+4.7wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c9b…a556backed Hawks	50c	400$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	229	53.7%123 W · 106 L	+6.8wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x17e7…85a1backed Hornets	53c	310$164 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$145.7	195	56.9%111 W · 84 L	+20.0wins	+0.10per pick	47cpaid	+19.9%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x4a59…eb2ebacked Hawks	49c	300$147 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$147	344	51.5%177 W · 167 L	+8.5wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+6.8%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Hawks	47c	268.36$126 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$126.32	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Hornets	53c	200$106 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$94	1,374	50.1%689 W · 685 L	+34.9wins	+0.03per pick	48cpaid	+7.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa61f…7993backed Hornets	51c	200$102 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$98	617	47.8%295 W · 322 L	+4.6wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	+1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d29…4083backed Hornets	51c	200$102 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$98	173	41%71 W · 102 L	-10.0wins	-0.06per pick	47cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7140…47e3backed Hawks	50c	200$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	126	50%63 W · 63 L	+2.1wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf41a…ea2bbacked Hawks	48c	200$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96	503	46.5%234 W · 269 L	-6.5wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb2ca…d984backed Hornets	51c	196.08$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$96.08	364	50.8%185 W · 179 L	-1.1wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x41ce…6509backed Hornets	52c	192.4$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$92.4	280	46.8%131 W · 149 L	-6.4wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-7.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c0f…09debacked Hawks	50c	192.31$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96.16	154	40.3%62 W · 92 L	-6.4wins	-0.04per pick	44cpaid	-8.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x64db…325bbacked Hornets	52c	192.31$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$92.31	1,259	48.7%613 W · 646 L	+1.5wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6a32…0086backed Hawks	49c	161.8$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.28	1,332	51.2%682 W · 650 L	+7.9wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c94…a43bbacked Hawks	49c	151.4$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74.19	511	46.6%238 W · 273 L	-13.7wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x84ec…daabbacked Hawks	50c	113.04$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.52	33	57.6%19 W · 14 L	+0.6wins	+0.02per pick	56cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b20…99e9backed Hawks	48c	104.17$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	660	46.8%309 W · 351 L	-16.2wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x15e3…009fbacked Hornets	51c	100$51 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$49	373	57.4%214 W · 159 L	+7.5wins	+0.02per pick	55cpaid	+4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb390…642bbacked Hornets	53c	94.34$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$44.34	1,661	50.3%836 W · 825 L	-14.9wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c9b…e74abacked Hornets	54c	92.59$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42.59	218	38.1%83 W · 135 L	-9.3wins	-0.04per pick	42cpaid	-5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4b6d…964abacked Hornets	54c	92.59$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42.59	22	31.8%7 W · 15 L	-0.7wins	-0.03per pick	35cpaid	-25%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x602d…3534backed Hawks	44c	78.89$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	377	55.7%210 W · 167 L	+11.1wins	+0.03per pick	53cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Hawks	49c	77.02$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.51	3,120	44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L	-7.6wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Hawks	47c	72$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.84	1,715	44.5%764 W · 951 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0e0c…b90abacked Hawks	48c	70$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.6	174	44.3%77 W · 97 L	-6.5wins	-0.04per pick	48cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb51b…779dbacked Hawks	50c	61.32$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.66	9	55.6%5 W · 4 L	+0.9wins	+0.10per pick	45cpaid	+36.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4e0a…e4e6backed Hawks	49c	60$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.4	876	47.5%416 W · 460 L	+3.7wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	+2.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe56e…0bb4backed Hornets	52c	57.69$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.69	242	48.3%117 W · 125 L	-4.0wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa89e…4ab4backed Hawks	48c	56$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.88	157	59.9%94 W · 63 L	+2.7wins	+0.02per pick	58cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xead0…f3babacked Hornets	51c	55$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.95	1,124	48.6%546 W · 578 L	+13.9wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d0e…4049backed Hornets	55c	54.55$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.55	242	53.3%129 W · 113 L	+5.4wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+4.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b74…b58fbacked Hornets	56c	52.27$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23	166	69.9%116 W · 50 L	+2.3wins	+0.01per pick	68cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1600…5a08backed Hawks	49c	50$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.5	141	27.7%39 W · 102 L	-16.4wins	-0.12per pick	39cpaid	-26.6%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0x9160…de3dbacked Hawks	50c	50$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	84	52.4%44 W · 40 L	+2.0wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbc1b…3b5bbacked Hawks	43c	45$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.25	249	46.6%116 W · 133 L	-3.4wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb3e4…d6b2backed Hawks	49c	45$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.05	479	48%230 W · 249 L	+5.6wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	+4.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x41ed…1da9backed Hawks	49c	45$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.05	331	47.4%157 W · 174 L	-6.5wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3d5f…7e6fbacked Hawks	50c	40$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	324	50%162 W · 162 L	+0.9wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdd28…2aefbacked Hawks	29c	39.99$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.6	314	30.3%95 W · 219 L	-1.4wins	0.00per pick	31cpaid	-1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd663…05ecbacked Hornets	52c	38.46$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.46	34	52.9%18 W · 16 L	+1.6wins	+0.05per pick	48cpaid	+32.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x38db…d245backed Hornets	53c	37.74$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.74	100	58%58 W · 42 L	+5.7wins	+0.06per pick	52cpaid	+10.8%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9324…7e95backed Hornets	53c	37.74$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.74	56	41.1%23 W · 33 L	-3.8wins	-0.07per pick	48cpaid	-15.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Hawks	47c	34.96$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.43	1,294	48.1%623 W · 671 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5425…8b3abacked Hornets	52c	32.69$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.69	291	56.4%164 W · 127 L	+13.8wins	+0.05per pick	52cpaid	+11%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x84fc…9db4backed Hawks	49c	30$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.7	146	48.6%71 W · 75 L	-4.7wins	-0.03per pick	52cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcc0e…0fbdbacked Hawks	49c	30$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.7	312	50.3%157 W · 155 L	+2.7wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2025…db59backed Hawks	49c	30$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.7	366	51.4%188 W · 178 L	+6.9wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+4.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc383…a540backed Hawks	49c	30$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.7	315	51.1%161 W · 154 L	+4.9wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+4.3%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x23fe…9788backed Hawks	47c	28.76$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.58	526	43%226 W · 300 L	-19.4wins	-0.04per pick	47cpaid	-15.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x81ea…21e1backed Hornets	53c	28.3$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.3	119	30.3%36 W · 83 L	-8.5wins	-0.07per pick	37cpaid	-24.3%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Hornets	55c	23.44$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.55	3,342	43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L	+81.2wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd2a2…004abacked Hawks	50c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	266	48.5%129 W · 137 L	-6.0wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4254…b8d2backed Hornets	53c	20$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.4	51	60.8%31 W · 20 L	+5.0wins	+0.10per pick	51cpaid	+19.9%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Hawks (-5.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event