TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Hawks vs. Hornets: O/U 238.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$12,589
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$13,635

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,589 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x16b2…a881backed Under50c2,412$1,206 inLost-$1,2062,29851.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L+65.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under45c1,315$591 inLost-$591.028,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd04d…bfc2backed Over50c1,202$601 inWon+$6012,43549.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L+30.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21ce…6f34backed Over51c1,176$600 inWon+$576.4713748.9%67 W · 70 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Over53c1,160$615 inWon+$545.216844%74 W · 94 L-11.8wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-10%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3242…0e0bbacked Over51c1,078$550 inWon+$528.4321247.2%100 W · 112 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-5.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under47c1,005$472 inLost-$472.352,73646.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L-67.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa7b7…0adbbacked Under44c542$238 inLost-$238.487252.8%38 W · 34 L+3.5wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+13.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x37de…f512backed Under5c499.99$25 inLost-$251,39026%361 W · 1,029 L-5.6wins0.00per pick26cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Over56c358.23$200 inWon+$157.852,79650.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L+27.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa42a…d91fbacked Over50c316$158 inWon+$15862347.5%296 W · 327 L-17.3wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Over54c199$107 inWon+$91.542,36148.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x64db…325bbacked Over51c196.08$100 inWon+$96.081,25948.7%613 W · 646 L+1.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x958f…7d5abacked Under53c154.02$82 inLost-$81.6313464.2%86 W · 48 L+5.9wins+0.04per pick60cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4556…2b35backed Over51c150$77 inWon+$73.512952.7%68 W · 61 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb12…f057backed Under47c148.08$70 inLost-$69.623348.9%114 W · 119 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x87d5…fe30backed Over51c144.73$74 inWon+$70.924235.7%15 W · 27 L-6.0wins-0.14per pick50cpaid-32.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x23fe…9788backed Under45c100.75$45 inLost-$44.9752643%226 W · 300 L-19.4wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-15.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdc1d…ff79backed Over51c75$38 inWon+$36.755646.4%26 W · 30 L-2.4wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-9.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5631…bd3abacked Over56c71.43$40 inWon+$31.435662.5%35 W · 21 L+6.4wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+26.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Over52c56.93$30 inWon+$27.411,29448.1%623 W · 671 L+0.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x34fa…f491backed Under47c50$24 inLost-$23.595548.5%463 W · 492 L-3.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b74…b58fbacked Under72c50$36 inLost-$3616669.9%116 W · 50 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick68cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Over52c40.2$21 inWon+$19.259,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0564…82fdbacked Under51c39.22$20 inLost-$201752.9%9 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd2a2…004abacked Under50c20$10 inLost-$1026648.5%129 W · 137 L-6.0wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb134…b496backed Under50c20$10 inLost-$101752.9%9 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.