NBA · resolved market

Hawks vs. Hornets: O/U 237.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4180a89b3beba438b7344be19ee7b64ef113f06c845f875521b797080cbbfb68

Rebuilt 6 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Overof Over, Under
Resolved: Dec 18, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $37,192
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $37,166

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,192 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x6ade…f5b0backed Under	50c	10,000$5,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,000	1,556	52.8%822 W · 734 L	+40.9wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+10.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x096f…8c80backed Over	50c	6,110$3,055 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,055	5	80%4 W · 1 L	+1.2wins	+0.24per pick	56cpaid	+40.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x414b…73bcbacked Under	46c	5,852$2,700 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,700	147	53.1%78 W · 69 L	+8.6wins	+0.06per pick	47cpaid	+10.1%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6a32…0086backed Under	44c	5,451$2,398 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,398.31	1,332	51.2%682 W · 650 L	+7.9wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Over	55c	4,269$2,333 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,935.82	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xec13…862bbacked Over	54c	4,000$2,160 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,840	288	50.3%145 W · 143 L	+4.7wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+2.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf953…53eabacked Over	50c	3,843$1,921 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,921.29	5	80%4 W · 1 L	+1.5wins	+0.30per pick	50cpaid	+60.5%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x21ce…6f34backed Over	51c	3,432$1,750 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,682.49	137	48.9%67 W · 70 L	-1.8wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x159f…5862backed Under	46c	1,550$713 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$713	21	42.9%9 W · 12 L	-1.4wins	-0.06per pick	49cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb820…cbe7backed Over	50c	1,250$625 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$625	589	51.3%302 W · 287 L	+6.2wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a30…8abdbacked Over	53c	1,108$587 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$520.55	507	54.2%275 W · 232 L	+13.6wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	+5.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9cb3…0a77backed Over	53c	1,066$565 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$501.04	157	56.7%89 W · 68 L	+5.8wins	+0.04per pick	53cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x14f3…0c3dbacked Under	46c	955$439 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$439.3	39	51.3%20 W · 19 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under	45c	623$282 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$282.21	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd04d…bfc2backed Over	52c	579.98$302 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$278.39	2,435	49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L	+30.3wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x37de…f512backed Under	5c	499.99$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	1,390	26%361 W · 1,029 L	-5.6wins	0.00per pick	26cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Over	51c	499.97$257 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$243.26	2,045	48.4%990 W · 1,055 L	-30.3wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf332…3c89backed Under	48c	416.6$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	656	49.2%323 W · 333 L	+9.5wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7196…08d3backed Under	49c	408.16$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	18	38.9%7 W · 11 L	-0.9wins	-0.05per pick	44cpaid	-12.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Over	56c	378.34$212 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$166.47	2,796	50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L	+27.9wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Under	46c	286$132 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$131.56	2,208	46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L	+42.7wins	+0.02per pick	45cpaid	+2.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd43e…572fbacked Under	51c	137$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.87	2	50%1 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Under	49c	100.41$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.93	1,294	48.1%623 W · 671 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe753…6f4bbacked Under	51c	100$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.51per pick	51cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c13…99b7backed Under	51c	100$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51	477	38.2%182 W · 295 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	39cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x6a82…b6bdbacked Over	51c	99.38$51 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$48.37	82	51.2%42 W · 40 L	+1.7wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee14…8055backed Under	51c	94.66$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.28	184	53.3%98 W · 86 L	+7.9wins	+0.04per pick	49cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Under	49c	93.4$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.77	2,361	48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L	-41.8wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x08b5…5a6ebacked Under	52c	92.88$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.3	120	48.3%58 W · 62 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x74bd…a397backed Over	50c	80$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.5wins	+0.16per pick	51cpaid	+32%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x068e…6d88backed Under	47c	76.81$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.1	18	50%9 W · 9 L	-0.9wins	-0.05per pick	55cpaid	-11%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd46a…e9dbbacked Under	47c	71$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.37	11	45.5%5 W · 6 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x87b4…23c0backed Under	44c	66$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.04	6	66.7%4 W · 2 L	+1.1wins	+0.19per pick	48cpaid	+39.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0974…003dbacked Over	51c	62.5$32 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30.62	180	53.3%96 W · 84 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd4e6…224cbacked Under	51c	58.82$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	88	52.3%46 W · 42 L	-3.1wins	-0.04per pick	56cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x23fe…9788backed Under	45c	51.01$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.17	526	43%226 W · 300 L	-19.4wins	-0.04per pick	47cpaid	-15.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa00f…8e56backed Under	38c	50$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	637	45.8%292 W · 345 L	+4.6wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	-14.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe6f0…5701backed Under	37c	42.88$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.87	311	44.4%138 W · 173 L	+6.2wins	+0.02per pick	42cpaid	-7.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd4d1…086ebacked Over	60c	41.67$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.67	111	58.6%65 W · 46 L	+6.4wins	+0.06per pick	53cpaid	+10.1%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under	44c	30$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.2	1,786	53.2%950 W · 836 L	+52.7wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Under	49c	30$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.7	4,878	48%2,341 W · 2,537 L	+61.9wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4b94…85d7backed Under	48c	21$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.08	16	50%8 W · 8 L	+2.9wins	+0.18per pick	32cpaid	+96.9%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb134…b496backed Under	50c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	17	52.9%9 W · 8 L	-0.7wins	-0.04per pick	57cpaid	-8.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xccc9…183bbacked Over	50c	20$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.5wins	+0.50per pick	50cpaid	+100%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Hawks vs. Hornets: O/U 237.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event