NBA · resolved market

Spread: Hawks (-4.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaac30c542eee34cb7836ed0b1da7ff68dcb3de90dd229090c06e9deb7dd3d6ff

Rebuilt 7 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Hornetsof Hawks, Hornets
Resolved: Dec 18, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $30,702
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $31,162

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,702 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xee61…debfbacked Hornets	46c	5,539$2,528 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,010.3	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4818…fde0backed Hornets	47c	4,000$1,880 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,120	517	53.8%278 W · 239 L	+11.6wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdf43…ae9abacked Hawks	53c	2,688$1,425 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,424.63	296	52.7%156 W · 140 L	-8.7wins	-0.03per pick	56cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Hawks	54c	2,534$1,369 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,369.5	1,910	54.3%1,038 W · 872 L	+25.2wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbf51…4a30backed Hawks	55c	2,484$1,363 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,363.27	767	46.4%356 W · 411 L	-16.7wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Hornets	47c	2,411$1,144 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,267.14	2,298	51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L	+65.4wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf7cd…0888backed Hawks	52c	1,485$772 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$772.2	177	44.1%78 W · 99 L	-7.2wins	-0.04per pick	48cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Hornets	51c	1,481$760 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$720.64	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b23…e20fbacked Hawks	53c	962.45$512 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$511.73	499	38.9%194 W · 305 L	-23.4wins	-0.05per pick	44cpaid	-16.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Hornets	45c	859.11$386 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$473.3	6,213	50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L	+53.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Hornets	47c	765$360 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$405.45	2,045	48.4%990 W · 1,055 L	-30.3wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xafba…e61bbacked Hornets	50c	628.45$314 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$314.23	478	48.1%230 W · 248 L	-9.9wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Hornets	49c	623.84$303 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$320.44	2,796	50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L	+27.9wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Hornets	47c	600$282 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$318	1,475	51.3%756 W · 719 L	+35.2wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x78f7…2c5dbacked Hornets	48c	578.1$277 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$300.61	381	48.6%185 W · 196 L	-15.6wins	-0.04per pick	53cpaid	-9.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x84d7…298fbacked Hornets	46c	541.58$249 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$292.45	263	36.5%96 W · 167 L	-9.1wins	-0.03per pick	40cpaid	-11.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Hawks	53c	461.28$244 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$244.48	2,361	48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L	-41.8wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc443…359bbacked Hawks	51c	457.27$233 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$233.21	238	45%107 W · 131 L	-8.7wins	-0.04per pick	49cpaid	-7%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xae53…d80bbacked Hawks	50c	428.45$214 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$214.23	409	52.1%213 W · 196 L	+16.3wins	+0.04per pick	48cpaid	+9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xeddf…a953backed Hornets	50c	400$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$200	361	43.5%157 W · 204 L	-4.5wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0599…3c6abacked Hawks	56c	357.14$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	235	46.8%110 W · 125 L	-18.7wins	-0.08per pick	55cpaid	-16.4%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x890a…093cbacked Hawks	54c	302.78$163 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$163.5	32	59.4%19 W · 13 L	+3.0wins	+0.09per pick	50cpaid	+20.6%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3cf2…06c2backed Hawks	50c	300$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	150	51.3%77 W · 73 L	-2.1wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa965…3565backed Hawks	48c	282$135 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$135.36	1,911	45.4%868 W · 1,043 L	+22.1wins	+0.01per pick	44cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x860d…3c72backed Hawks	54c	267.75$145 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$144.59	266	51.1%136 W · 130 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6a32…0086backed Hawks	54c	263.71$142 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$142.4	1,332	51.2%682 W · 650 L	+7.9wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe7ca…a175backed Hornets	50c	240$120 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$120	824	42.2%348 W · 476 L	-3.7wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5f27…6ea7backed Hawks	50c	240$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	141	45.4%64 W · 77 L	-4.6wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-11.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x461c…f74bbacked Hawks	54c	212.96$115 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$115	48	56.3%27 W · 21 L	+3.3wins	+0.07per pick	49cpaid	+17.3%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf0e2…8e9ebacked Hornets	48c	208.33$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$108.33	96	59.4%57 W · 39 L	+8.6wins	+0.09per pick	50cpaid	+19.7%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1341…0853backed Hawks	55c	206.3$113 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$113.47	257	53.7%138 W · 119 L	+4.4wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa61f…7993backed Hornets	49c	200$98 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$102	617	47.8%295 W · 322 L	+4.6wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	+1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb433…f543backed Hornets	46c	200$92 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$108	41	46.3%19 W · 22 L	-3.1wins	-0.08per pick	54cpaid	-15.9%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xad44…db14backed Hawks	50c	200$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	52	53.8%28 W · 24 L	+1.7wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3eac…67cbbacked Hawks	37c	153.92$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.92	158	44.9%71 W · 87 L	+1.3wins	+0.01per pick	44cpaid	-6.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Hornets	47c	146.75$69 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$77.79	3,120	44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L	-7.6wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6719…1e71backed Hawks	8c	143.17$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.08	18	11.1%2 W · 16 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-17.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x243c…9ae0backed Hawks	50c	128.54$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.27	383	47%180 W · 203 L	-8.6wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa35b…0eccbacked Hornets	47c	106.38$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$56.38	245	56.3%138 W · 107 L	+10.5wins	+0.04per pick	52cpaid	+7.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Hornets	47c	102.62$48 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$54.84	1,695	44.7%758 W · 937 L	-30.4wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-11.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Hornets	47c	101.71$48 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$54.02	2,512	49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L	+6.9wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1b9b…bc4abacked Hawks	51c	100$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51	378	50.3%190 W · 188 L	+7.0wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9fbd…3d15backed Hornets	45c	98.58$44 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$54.22	762	47.1%359 W · 403 L	+2.4wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd5b7…c02cbacked Hawks	43c	93.02$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	42	52.4%22 W · 20 L	+4.1wins	+0.10per pick	43cpaid	+20.1%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x23fe…9788backed Hornets	48c	90.22$43 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$46.88	526	43%226 W · 300 L	-19.4wins	-0.04per pick	47cpaid	-15.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Hornets	46c	83.81$39 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$45.26	1,294	48.1%623 W · 671 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Hornets	46c	82.9$38 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$44.77	3,668	41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L	-70.7wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-15.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x474b…c5b1backed Hawks	50c	82.7$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.35	90	50%45 W · 45 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+8.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb966…cac6backed Hawks	54c	74.07$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	253	51%129 W · 124 L	-6.5wins	-0.03per pick	54cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3cdb…7a7abacked Hornets	47c	60$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.8	58	44.8%26 W · 32 L	-1.1wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x01fa…c2edbacked Hawks	50c	50$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	174	47.7%83 W · 91 L	-5.2wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-9.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5b74…b58fbacked Hornets	68c	50$34 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16	166	69.9%116 W · 50 L	+2.3wins	+0.01per pick	68cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd22f…d0eebacked Hawks	55c	45.45$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	408	53.7%219 W · 189 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	54cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b5f…8bfdbacked Hawks	50c	42.84$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.42	24	50%12 W · 12 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+10.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce49…4740backed Hawks	47c	42.55$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	236	42.4%100 W · 136 L	-3.9wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5373…e46bbacked Hawks	50c	41.34$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.67	87	44.8%39 W · 48 L	-4.3wins	-0.05per pick	50cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1d23…b5a2backed Hawks	54c	37.04$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	89	46.1%41 W · 48 L	-3.4wins	-0.04per pick	50cpaid	-10.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Hornets	52c	35$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.85	2,091	47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L	-56.6wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdc5b…f102backed Hawks	55c	32.73$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	905	60.8%550 W · 355 L	-2.1wins	0.00per pick	61cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb4f7…1cddbacked Hawks	53c	30$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.9	67	41.8%28 W · 39 L	-3.9wins	-0.06per pick	48cpaid	-10%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xba82…600bbacked Hawks	54c	24.33$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.14	13	46.2%6 W · 7 L	-1.3wins	-0.10per pick	57cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Hawks (-4.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event