NBA · resolved market

Hawks vs. Hornets: O/U 239.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3cbb18b40b6c47b5c7cdd893fd201d654894094b4af7ecc90a8b80053f8babaf

Rebuilt 7 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Overof Over, Under
Resolved: Dec 18, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $65,410
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $71,439

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $65,410 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xee61…debfbacked Over	50c	14,295$7,147 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7,148.02	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x84cb…28adbacked Under	49c	12,237$6,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$6,000	168	46.4%78 W · 90 L	-13.2wins	-0.08per pick	54cpaid	-15.3%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6ade…f5b0backed Under	50c	10,000$5,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,000	1,556	52.8%822 W · 734 L	+40.9wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+10.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbf51…4a30backed Under	48c	5,208$2,500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,500	767	46.4%356 W · 411 L	-16.7wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaf5d…7253backed Over	48c	5,191$2,500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,690.78	112	42.9%48 W · 64 L	-2.8wins	-0.03per pick	45cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xef68…a0afbacked Over	48c	4,167$2,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,166.67	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+0.6wins	+0.12per pick	48cpaid	+24.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd711…894fbacked Under	52c	4,038$2,100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,100	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-1.9wins	-0.31per pick	48cpaid	-58.3%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x535b…25a9backed Under	54c	3,715$2,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,000	125	55.2%69 W · 56 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	54cpaid	+2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x39fd…5a3fbacked Over	50c	1,379$685 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$694.9	199	58.3%116 W · 83 L	+8.2wins	+0.04per pick	54cpaid	+7.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Over	50c	1,114$556 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$558.3	2,361	48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L	-41.8wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x37de…f512backed Under	5c	500$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	1,390	26%361 W · 1,029 L	-5.6wins	0.00per pick	26cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6bea…5d50backed Over	50c	465$233 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$232.5	500	47.2%236 W · 264 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Over	51c	390.59$197 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$193.1	2,796	50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L	+27.9wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad44…db14backed Over	53c	377.36$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$177.36	52	53.8%28 W · 24 L	+1.7wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under	52c	341$176 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$175.74	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d01…0ab1backed Under	48c	300$144 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$144	726	47.7%346 W · 380 L	+5.8wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9519…3b2ebacked Under	53c	283.02$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	178	56.2%100 W · 78 L	+5.3wins	+0.03per pick	53cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5f27…6ea7backed Over	51c	240$122 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$117.6	141	45.4%64 W · 77 L	-4.6wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-11.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2687…1363backed Under	51c	205$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104.55	11	27.3%3 W · 8 L	-2.9wins	-0.26per pick	54cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x66fe…e123backed Under	48c	200$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96	186	56.5%105 W · 81 L	+4.0wins	+0.02per pick	54cpaid	+12.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Over	46c	173$80 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$93.42	2,298	51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L	+65.4wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9f56…f93cbacked Under	49c	102.04$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	46	47.8%22 W · 24 L	+1.3wins	+0.03per pick	45cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Over	49c	100$49 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$51	807	44.1%356 W · 451 L	+6.2wins	+0.01per pick	43cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf39d…c817backed Under	53c	100$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53	70	65.7%46 W · 24 L	+4.3wins	+0.06per pick	60cpaid	+8.5%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb0cb…85babacked Under	48c	100$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48	522	42.7%223 W · 299 L	-1.3wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1d3a…7b63backed Over	50c	90.86$45 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$45.43	762	49.5%377 W · 385 L	-8.7wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52b6…b02ebacked Under	49c	71.43$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	223	42.2%94 W · 129 L	-7.4wins	-0.03per pick	45cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0e0c…b90abacked Over	54c	70$38 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$32.2	174	44.3%77 W · 97 L	-6.5wins	-0.04per pick	48cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x67bc…4d94backed Under	53c	56.6$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	210	51.4%108 W · 102 L	-6.3wins	-0.03per pick	54cpaid	-6.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Under	52c	55$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.6	1,695	44.7%758 W · 937 L	-30.4wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-11.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9696…2bc3backed Under	53c	44$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.32	339	49.9%169 W · 170 L	-1.4wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Over	52c	43.64$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.95	1,294	48.1%623 W · 671 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf4af…0938backed Under	52c	40$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.8	39	53.8%21 W · 18 L	+2.0wins	+0.05per pick	49cpaid	+30.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7481…279fbacked Under	52c	38.46$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	156	51.9%81 W · 75 L	-0.8wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xba82…600bbacked Under	53c	24.79$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.14	13	46.2%6 W · 7 L	-1.3wins	-0.10per pick	57cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Hawks vs. Hornets: O/U 239.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event