TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Hawks vs. Hornets: O/U 231.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$22,248
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$23,009

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,248 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xac75…1319backed Over55c5,600$3,080 inWon+$2,519.99966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+33.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x60f0…1a38backed Under45c5,046$2,270 inLost-$2,270.491656.3%9 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+9.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xea27…19c6backed Over54c3,473$1,874 inWon+$1,598.874057.5%23 W · 17 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+9.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Under46c2,850$1,316 inLost-$1,316.172,09147.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L-56.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa965…3565backed Under38c1,867$702 inLost-$702.261,91145.4%868 W · 1,043 L+22.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe403…3d50backed Under47c1,034$486 inLost-$485.9854747.5%260 W · 287 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8b4…f05dbacked Over53c1,034$548 inWon+$485.9866853.4%357 W · 311 L+22.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+7.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xce26…8e06backed Over68c882$599 inWon+$282.7691050.9%463 W · 447 L+11.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84d7…298fbacked Under35c783.33$273 inLost-$272.6626336.5%96 W · 167 L-9.1wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-11.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x49d1…7b96backed Under46c770.37$354 inLost-$354.3724147.3%114 W · 127 L+8.0wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+13.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd991…c161backed Under46c652.17$300 inLost-$3002850%14 W · 14 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick55cpaid+1.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1733…1e15backed Under47c636.17$299 inLost-$2991,15747.9%554 W · 603 L-19.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1b5e…83f8backed Over53c636.17$337 inWon+$29911656.9%66 W · 50 L+10.6wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+17%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x2630…e941backed Over64c597.75$385 inWon+$212.7542845.1%193 W · 235 L-15.7wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-8.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3a90…7bf8backed Over55c563$310 inWon+$253.359260.9%56 W · 36 L-4.5wins-0.05per pick66cpaid-8.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x37de…f512backed Under5c500$25 inLost-$251,39026%361 W · 1,029 L-5.6wins0.00per pick26cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x586d…c5dcbacked Under45c439.93$198 inLost-$197.977248.6%35 W · 37 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Under35c342.5$121 inLost-$121.22,63036.7%966 W · 1,664 L-119.1wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-25.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3033…eda3backed Over64c312.5$200 inWon+$112.52751.9%14 W · 13 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Over55c239.11$132 inWon+$107.033,66841.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L-70.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe6f0…5701backed Under8c200$16 inLost-$1631144.4%138 W · 173 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb433…f543backed Under44c199.99$88 inLost-$884146.3%19 W · 22 L-3.1wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-15.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x39c6…0ac1backed Over56c178.57$100 inWon+$78.5754246.7%253 W · 289 L-7.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-6.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Under38c164.54$62 inLost-$62.092,04548.4%990 W · 1,055 L-30.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over64c114.96$74 inWon+$40.958,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6794…c10dbacked Under43c102.96$44 inLost-$43.831241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-23.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Under38c100$38 inLost-$382,16940.8%885 W · 1,284 L-8.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid-14.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Under45c100$45 inLost-$4580744.1%356 W · 451 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2de8…1121backed Over68c100$68 inWon+$3290957.6%524 W · 385 L-1.9wins0.00per pick58cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Over53c98.4$52 inWon+$46.252,51249.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L+6.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under33c64.38$22 inLost-$21.51,78653.2%950 W · 836 L+52.7wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e3f…e00bbacked Over57c63.83$36 inWon+$27.457132.4%23 W · 48 L-10.6wins-0.15per pick47cpaid-36.5%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x4c75…8c7abacked Under43c52.33$22 inLost-$22.51735.3%6 W · 11 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-12.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x187b…f545backed Over66c40.38$27 inWon+$13.5816447.6%78 W · 86 L-0.7wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9fbd…3d15backed Under29c40$12 inLost-$11.676247.1%359 W · 403 L+2.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x334f…0d32backed Under47c40$19 inLost-$18.813652.2%71 W · 65 L-4.6wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa00f…8e56backed Under38c31$12 inLost-$11.7863745.8%292 W · 345 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-14.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Under35c30.3$11 inLost-$10.551,13217%192 W · 940 L+2.5wins0.00per pick17cpaid-25.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8de1…2d12backed Over67c29.85$20 inWon+$9.8516968.6%116 W · 53 L+5.8wins+0.03per pick65cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xefc9…b337backed Over56c21.42$12 inWon+$9.424037.5%15 W · 25 L-4.5wins-0.11per pick49cpaid-21.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.