NBA · resolved market
Spread: Spurs (-15.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x74aba20e49e18800a003bc479be8919f6ed9533b00cb6005928b8a4b39296bdc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Spursof Spurs, Wizards
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $140,958
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $141,237
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $140,958 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Spurs | 51c | 98,018$49,594 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48,423.45 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9165…5b98backed Wizards | 50c | 74,220$36,935 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36,934.56 | 252 | 48.4%122 W · 130 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4335…fc2fbacked Wizards | 49c | 40,000$19,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,600 | 173 | 54.3%94 W · 79 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Spurs | 50c | 5,880$2,940 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,940 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa341…04a3backed Spurs | 49c | 4,082$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,081.63 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Spurs | 50c | 4,000$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,000 | 1,139 | 48.3%550 W · 589 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ca…a175backed Wizards | 49c | 3,000$1,470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,469.99 | 824 | 42.2%348 W · 476 L | -3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3e3…4521backed Spurs | 51c | 2,941$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,441.18 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedb1…819ebacked Wizards | 51c | 2,216$1,130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,130 | 158 | 55.7%88 W · 70 L | -9.8wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x253d…aa62backed Spurs | 48c | 1,959$940 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,018.68 | 583 | 47%274 W · 309 L | -12.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Spurs | 48c | 1,888$906 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$981.76 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce99…637ebacked Wizards | 49c | 1,450$711 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$710.5 | 74 | 58.1%43 W · 31 L | +6.5wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc94a…9401backed Spurs | 51c | 1,122$572 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$549.89 | 403 | 50.1%202 W · 201 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Spurs | 50c | 646$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcde1…dfc0backed Spurs | 52c | 600$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +192.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3033…eda3backed Spurs | 52c | 579.84$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.84 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Wizards | 48c | 539.4$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.04 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Wizards | 51c | 509.31$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.52 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Spurs | 44c | 406.22$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.27 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3846…c908backed Spurs | 51c | 400$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd5…26ccbacked Wizards | 54c | 400$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216 | 516 | 51%263 W · 253 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67c3…5cc8backed Wizards | 53c | 377.36$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 111 | 55%61 W · 50 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Wizards | 51c | 300$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153 | 503 | 46.5%234 W · 269 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa42a…d91fbacked Spurs | 48c | 300$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156 | 623 | 47.5%296 W · 327 L | -17.3wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Spurs | 46c | 261.89$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.42 | 1,475 | 51.3%756 W · 719 L | +35.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46bd…37e8backed Spurs | 48c | 205$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.6 | 168 | 37.5%63 W · 105 L | -20.6wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -25%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa61f…7993backed Wizards | 54c | 200$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 617 | 47.8%295 W · 322 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c0f…09debacked Spurs | 52c | 188.68$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.57 | 154 | 40.3%62 W · 92 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c62…01a3backed Spurs | 49c | 171.43$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.43 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Wizards | 44c | 157.3$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.21 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc3e…776bbacked Spurs | 56c | 157.3$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.21 | 90 | 47.8%43 W · 47 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…1943backed Wizards | 52c | 134.62$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 201 | 50.7%102 W · 99 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Wizards | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 628 | 48.7%306 W · 322 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9b…bc4abacked Wizards | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 378 | 50.3%190 W · 188 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9249…4f16backed Wizards | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | -4.5wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x82a6…af86backed Wizards | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7681…ac03backed Wizards | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 289 | 29.4%85 W · 204 L | -13.0wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x265b…74dfbacked Spurs | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cb…85babacked Spurs | 51c | 99.98$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.99 | 522 | 42.7%223 W · 299 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Wizards | 49c | 82$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.18 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Wizards | 56c | 52.25$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.26 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9de1…f272backed Wizards | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 479 | 48.6%233 W · 246 L | +14.4wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b74…b58fbacked Wizards | 71c | 50$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 166 | 69.9%116 W · 50 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b20…7c67backed Wizards | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 195 | 52.8%103 W · 92 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Wizards | 49c | 46.86$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.96 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a87…fb21backed Spurs | 53c | 43.4$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 624 | 50%312 W · 312 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5748…7b81backed Wizards | 53c | 43.4$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 147 | 51%75 W · 72 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Wizards | 49c | 41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.09 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d0e…4049backed Spurs | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 242 | 53.3%129 W · 113 L | +5.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa81b…dd67backed Wizards | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd395…3731backed Wizards | 53c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 91 | 35.2%32 W · 59 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Spurs | 46c | 27.16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.66 | 526 | 43%226 W · 300 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Spurs | 47c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0501…61ecbacked Spurs | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x733e…c558backed Wizards | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x386d…3eaabacked Spurs | 58c | 18.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.67 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Spurs (-15.5)this page
- Spread: Spurs (-13.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Spurs (-14.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Spurs (-16.5)Spurs won
- Wizards vs. SpursSpurs won
- Wizards vs. Spurs: 1H MoneylineSpurs won
- Wizards vs. Spurs: O/U 239.5Under won
- Wizards vs. Spurs: O/U 240.5Under won
- Wizards vs. Spurs: O/U 241.5Under won
- Wizards vs. Spurs: O/U 242.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.