NBA · resolved market
Wizards vs. Spurs: O/U 240.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc87c883ca0d3df42fdce48246ec1bf86906a741ff8d2cdb59396aa7e24cd3b54
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $58,608
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $58,964
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $58,608 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9165…5b98backed Over | 50c | 21,997$10,914 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,914.23 | 252 | 48.4%122 W · 130 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf51…4a30backed Under | 51c | 9,893$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,893.37 | 767 | 46.4%356 W · 411 L | -16.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7104…afefbacked Under | 50c | 8,000$4,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,000 | 30 | 73.3%22 W · 8 L | +6.4wins | +0.21per pick | 52cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x414b…73bcbacked Under | 50c | 5,444$2,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,744.24 | 147 | 53.1%78 W · 69 L | +8.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 51c | 4,924$2,502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,421.83 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…34a8backed Over | 47c | 3,997$1,878 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,878.45 | 483 | 47.2%228 W · 255 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e00…eb46backed Under | 48c | 3,508$1,696 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,812.65 | 363 | 51.2%186 W · 177 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 48c | 2,977$1,429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,428.77 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ee…b3aabacked Over | 51c | 2,000$1,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,020 | 362 | 48.9%177 W · 185 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b23…e20fbacked Over | 55c | 962.48$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$529.89 | 499 | 38.9%194 W · 305 L | -23.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe403…3d50backed Under | 45c | 848.12$382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$466.47 | 547 | 47.5%260 W · 287 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed Over | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,390 | 26%361 W · 1,029 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d3…f2bcbacked Under | 49c | 500$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255 | 409 | 47.7%195 W · 214 L | -13.0wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15d5…ef7bbacked Over | 48c | 500$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 1,198 | 38.8%465 W · 733 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Over | 51c | 390.86$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.34 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4da…3175backed Over | 49c | 375.1$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.8 | 715 | 47.7%341 W · 374 L | -26.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 47c | 373$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.16 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Over | 46c | 365.93$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.33 | 1,911 | 45.4%868 W · 1,043 L | +22.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf332…3c89backed Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 656 | 49.2%323 W · 333 L | +9.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Under | 49c | 200$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 1,151 | 53.7%618 W · 533 L | -41.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…325bbacked Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 1,259 | 48.7%613 W · 646 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ad2…71f8backed Over | 48c | 200$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dd…ea96backed Over | 55c | 176.06$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.2 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15a3…718ebacked Under | 49c | 150$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.5 | 113 | 51.3%58 W · 55 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Under | 48c | 137.5$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.04 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae53…d80bbacked Under | 49c | 131.16$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.89 | 409 | 52.1%213 W · 196 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0c3dbacked Over | 49c | 121.2$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.39 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce49…4740backed Under | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 236 | 42.4%100 W · 136 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda21…8646backed Over | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 625 | 41.9%262 W · 363 L | -32.7wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -11%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7737…4378backed Over | 54c | 73$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.42 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8db…bbddbacked Under | 49c | 63$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.13 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4e6…224cbacked Under | 48c | 62.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 88 | 52.3%46 W · 42 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad44…db14backed Under | 49c | 61.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.22 | 52 | 53.8%28 W · 24 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3eac…67cbbacked Over | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 158 | 44.9%71 W · 87 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Over | 46c | 54.34$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 342 | 46.8%160 W · 182 L | +18.1wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Under | 44c | 53.63$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.79 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 67c | 44$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.63 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44b8…a2d7backed Over | 52c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 183 | 47.5%87 W · 96 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x243c…9ae0backed Under | 49c | 39.35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.07 | 383 | 47%180 W · 203 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd46a…e9dbbacked Over | 49c | 39$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.11 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x380c…1099backed Over | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | -9.4wins | -0.16per pick | 58cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Under | 34c | 33.72$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.31 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a7…07cdbacked Under | 49c | 33$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.83 | 62 | 53.2%33 W · 29 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…49a8backed Under | 49c | 31.69$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.16 | 356 | 51.1%182 W · 174 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29bd…80c9backed Under | 48c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 186 | 49.5%92 W · 94 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x474b…c5b1backed Under | 49c | 25.31$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.91 | 90 | 50%45 W · 45 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Wizards vs. Spurs: O/U 240.5this page
- Spread: Spurs (-13.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Spurs (-14.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Spurs (-15.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Spurs (-16.5)Spurs won
- Wizards vs. SpursSpurs won
- Wizards vs. Spurs: 1H MoneylineSpurs won
- Wizards vs. Spurs: O/U 239.5Under won
- Wizards vs. Spurs: O/U 241.5Under won
- Wizards vs. Spurs: O/U 242.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.