NBA · resolved market
Wizards vs. Spurs: O/U 242.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4e1a98f26013b943f14c6a561283f8786b982cde8e5185313c4fa8a1bc6d9614
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,300
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,000
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,300 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 45c | 7,906$3,570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,570.46 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe405…bf91backed Under | 55c | 5,509$3,030 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,479.09 | 484 | 48.8%236 W · 248 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1033…d851backed Under | 55c | 3,636$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,636.36 | 274 | 43.1%118 W · 156 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…34a8backed Over | 42c | 2,133$896 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$895.76 | 483 | 47.2%228 W · 255 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Under | 55c | 1,091$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490.95 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8314…0f1ebacked Under | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 331 | 50.8%168 W · 163 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92cf…8b35backed Under | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 1,110 | 52%577 W · 533 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e0c…b90abacked Over | 47c | 70$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.9 | 174 | 44.3%77 W · 97 L | -6.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Over | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 876 | 47.5%416 W · 460 L | +3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb052…7adabacked Under | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.69 | 290 | 46.9%136 W · 154 L | -9.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Over | 50c | 51.69$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.85 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e4…d6b2backed Over | 50c | 45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 479 | 48%230 W · 249 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41ed…1da9backed Over | 50c | 45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 331 | 47.4%157 W · 174 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fa8…2e0dbacked Under | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 137 | 48.9%67 W · 70 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca70…6259backed Under | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 135 | 48.9%66 W · 69 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84fc…9db4backed Over | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 146 | 48.6%71 W · 75 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc0e…0fbdbacked Over | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 312 | 50.3%157 W · 155 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2025…db59backed Over | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 366 | 51.4%188 W · 178 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc383…a540backed Over | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 315 | 51.1%161 W · 154 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d12…5cdcbacked Under | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -3.4wins | -0.24per pick | 60cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Wizards vs. Spurs: O/U 242.5this page
- Spread: Spurs (-13.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Spurs (-14.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Spurs (-15.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Spurs (-16.5)Spurs won
- Wizards vs. SpursSpurs won
- Wizards vs. Spurs: 1H MoneylineSpurs won
- Wizards vs. Spurs: O/U 239.5Under won
- Wizards vs. Spurs: O/U 240.5Under won
- Wizards vs. Spurs: O/U 241.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.