NBA · resolved market
Spread: Spurs (-16.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x77283f18a120870c19a106d0b39cb6ab8ca751d7fda0ea061286ba9e07fa81a1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Spursof Spurs, Wizards
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $100,370
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $100,458
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $100,370 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Spurs | 47c | 51,074$24,003 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27,071.34 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafba…e61bbacked Wizards | 53c | 44,443$23,555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23,554.93 | 478 | 48.1%230 W · 248 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4335…fc2fbacked Wizards | 53c | 30,000$15,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,900 | 173 | 54.3%94 W · 79 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2f…eca9backed Wizards | 53c | 20,816$11,032 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,032.31 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb202…41d5backed Spurs | 47c | 16,596$7,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,795.74 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6136…c4a6backed Spurs | 47c | 14,468$6,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,668.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff8c…ba2dbacked Spurs | 47c | 8,085$3,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,285.11 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.35per pick | 48cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xee9c…8a16backed Spurs | 47c | 5,426$2,550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,875.53 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +78.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…2c8bbacked Spurs | 47c | 1,336$628 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$708.17 | 357 | 49.6%177 W · 180 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34a2…b10bbacked Wizards | 54c | 1,000$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd5…26ccbacked Wizards | 53c | 600$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 516 | 51%263 W · 253 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Wizards | 53c | 499.81$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.04 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8da…cad3backed Spurs | 47c | 400$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x011c…31dfbacked Spurs | 47c | 338.3$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.3 | 334 | 47.9%160 W · 174 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Wizards | 53c | 330.8$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.32 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03f7…c0ccbacked Wizards | 53c | 250$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.5 | 236 | 48.7%115 W · 121 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c0f…09debacked Spurs | 48c | 204.08$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.12 | 154 | 40.3%62 W · 92 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe733…0accbacked Spurs | 47c | 200$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +54%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7681…ac03backed Wizards | 55c | 200$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 289 | 29.4%85 W · 204 L | -13.0wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Spurs | 46c | 190$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.17 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2de8…1121backed Wizards | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 909 | 57.6%524 W · 385 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e0c…b90abacked Spurs | 47c | 70$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.1 | 174 | 44.3%77 W · 97 L | -6.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b74…b58fbacked Wizards | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 166 | 69.9%116 W · 50 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Spurs | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0674…d6c1backed Wizards | 53c | 35.85$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 142 | 36.6%52 W · 90 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9324…7e95backed Wizards | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 56 | 41.1%23 W · 33 L | -3.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Spurs (-16.5)this page
- Spread: Spurs (-13.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Spurs (-14.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Spurs (-15.5)Spurs won
- Wizards vs. SpursSpurs won
- Wizards vs. Spurs: 1H MoneylineSpurs won
- Wizards vs. Spurs: O/U 239.5Under won
- Wizards vs. Spurs: O/U 240.5Under won
- Wizards vs. Spurs: O/U 241.5Under won
- Wizards vs. Spurs: O/U 242.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.