NBA · resolved market
Spread: Spurs (-14.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x31e0fb9a16d0a7dc08b2be492e95ccfae2b57d1d67e008758a807d6109cd5053
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Spursof Spurs, Wizards
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,623
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,503
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,623 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Spurs | 49c | 6,673$3,296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,377.3 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18ee…f66cbacked Wizards | 50c | 6,309$3,155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,154.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Wizards | 46c | 4,545$2,111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,110.96 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd670…b24ebacked Spurs | 49c | 4,374$2,154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,219.41 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +94.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…fde0backed Wizards | 51c | 4,000$2,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,039.99 | 517 | 53.8%278 W · 239 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa341…04a3backed Spurs | 53c | 3,396$1,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,596.23 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc63…f1c7backed Spurs | 56c | 2,715$1,520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,195 | 506 | 53.2%269 W · 237 L | +8.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32eb…0c1bbacked Wizards | 46c | 2,692$1,238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,238.32 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -6.6wins | -0.25per pick | 52cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xbf51…4a30backed Wizards | 56c | 1,779$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 767 | 46.4%356 W · 411 L | -16.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked Wizards | 45c | 1,541$694 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$693.65 | 668 | 53.4%357 W · 311 L | +22.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Spurs | 55c | 1,476$812 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$664.2 | 851 | 47.5%404 W · 447 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Wizards | 45c | 1,275$574 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$573.92 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Wizards | 45c | 1,200$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540 | 1,475 | 51.3%756 W · 719 L | +35.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Spurs | 44c | 988$435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$553.28 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe071…2d1abacked Spurs | 53c | 754.72$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.72 | 489 | 57.5%281 W · 208 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Wizards | 45c | 538$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.46 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e84…768ebacked Spurs | 53c | 469.81$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.81 | 136 | 44.9%61 W · 75 L | -7.7wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x964c…0a17backed Wizards | 49c | 306.12$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 72 | 37.5%27 W · 45 L | -5.1wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Spurs | 50c | 255.07$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.45 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf531…b062backed Wizards | 48c | 220$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.6 | 548 | 38%208 W · 340 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Wizards | 53c | 220$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.5 | 368 | 54.1%199 W · 169 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0e2…8e9ebacked Wizards | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 96 | 59.4%57 W · 39 L | +8.6wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1e46…0742backed Spurs | 53c | 200$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 239 | 48.5%116 W · 123 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dd…ea96backed Spurs | 50c | 184.24$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.22 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda21…8646backed Wizards | 45c | 183$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.35 | 625 | 41.9%262 W · 363 L | -32.7wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -11%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a28…c2e1backed Wizards | 50c | 160$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -4.0wins | -0.18per pick | 54cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9aef…dc0fbacked Wizards | 52c | 153.85$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Wizards | 49c | 142.86$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 818 | 45.7%374 W · 444 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78f7…2c5dbacked Wizards | 45c | 134.4$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.48 | 381 | 48.6%185 W · 196 L | -15.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Wizards | 45c | 118.53$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.34 | 526 | 43%226 W · 300 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a09…3c83backed Spurs | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 49 | 61.2%30 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a20…af22backed Wizards | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 89 | 43.8%39 W · 50 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36ce…daddbacked Wizards | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 61 | 54.1%33 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…fcf3backed Wizards | 53c | 96.23$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 124 | 54%67 W · 57 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Wizards | 49c | 92.29$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.22 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebac…be55backed Wizards | 49c | 81.63$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 121 | 53.7%65 W · 56 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf10b…2041backed Wizards | 49c | 81.63$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 195 | 48.7%95 W · 100 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…e74abacked Spurs | 55c | 65.45$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.45 | 218 | 38.1%83 W · 135 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Wizards | 45c | 61.8$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.81 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1209…fa75backed Spurs | 49c | 56.24$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.68 | 69 | 43.5%30 W · 39 L | -5.1wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Wizards | 46c | 51.9$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Spurs | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.64 | 1,444 | 58.1%839 W · 605 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38db…d245backed Wizards | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 100 | 58%58 W · 42 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd102…48a6backed Wizards | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x708a…aadabacked Wizards | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Wizards | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf88b…0ed2backed Wizards | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 236 | 51.7%122 W · 114 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd637…be9abacked Spurs | 53c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 160 | 52.5%84 W · 76 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Wizards | 49c | 28.57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 599 | 48.4%290 W · 309 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Spurs (-14.5)this page
- Spread: Spurs (-13.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Spurs (-15.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Spurs (-16.5)Spurs won
- Wizards vs. SpursSpurs won
- Wizards vs. Spurs: 1H MoneylineSpurs won
- Wizards vs. Spurs: O/U 239.5Under won
- Wizards vs. Spurs: O/U 240.5Under won
- Wizards vs. Spurs: O/U 241.5Under won
- Wizards vs. Spurs: O/U 242.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.