NFL · resolved market
Spread: Buccaneers (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xda080d74e1a3dcb8260e2306e073555b83a70c3c3934df95b038afac426317f1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Panthersof Buccaneers, Panthers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $57,512
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $59,500
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $57,512 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ade…f5b0backed Buccaneers | 44c | 40,000$17,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,600 | 129 | 44.2%57 W · 72 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc65c…ea39backed Panthers | 56c | 28,922$16,196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,725.69 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Panthers | 56c | 5,827$3,259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,567.73 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Buccaneers | 44c | 5,335$2,347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,347.4 | 473 | 48.4%229 W · 244 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Panthers | 56c | 3,974$2,225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,748.54 | 346 | 52.9%183 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Panthers | 56c | 2,500$1,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,100 | 192 | 40.1%77 W · 115 L | -16.2wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Panthers | 55c | 2,248$1,236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,011.46 | 394 | 47.7%188 W · 206 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Panthers | 57c | 2,229$1,271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$958.47 | 224 | 50%112 W · 112 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8511…4a6bbacked Panthers | 56c | 2,220$1,243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$976.8 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4335…fc2fbacked Buccaneers | 43c | 2,029$873 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$872.5 | 111 | 68.5%76 W · 35 L | +18.5wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xc9c8…44fbbacked Panthers | 56c | 2,000$1,120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$880 | 148 | 37.2%55 W · 93 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…ff0ebacked Panthers | 57c | 1,404$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$603.51 | 57 | 66.7%38 W · 19 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Buccaneers | 44c | 1,266$557 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$557.03 | 533 | 48.4%258 W · 275 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe922…39b3backed Panthers | 57c | 350.88$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.88 | 163 | 51.5%84 W · 79 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda21…8646backed Buccaneers | 44c | 268$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.92 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce6d…28b5backed Panthers | 56c | 250$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 206 | 50.5%104 W · 102 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Panthers | 55c | 200$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 532 | 53%282 W · 250 L | +19.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4138…6a24backed Panthers | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.44 | 52 | 65.4%34 W · 18 L | +5.1wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Panthers | 56c | 121.25$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.82 | 363 | 41.9%152 W · 211 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fd8…b4dbbacked Panthers | 56c | 110$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +60.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe864…ce58backed Panthers | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 96 | 51%49 W · 47 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02f7…b17abacked Panthers | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 118 | 55.9%66 W · 52 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…3534backed Buccaneers | 44c | 79.55$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 158 | 55.7%88 W · 70 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1488…0672backed Panthers | 56c | 79$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.76 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb3…05e5backed Buccaneers | 45c | 62.22$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 87 | 33.3%29 W · 58 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebe…4ee4backed Panthers | 56c | 57.5$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.3 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ae…2103backed Panthers | 46c | 54.35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.35 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -5.4wins | -0.36per pick | 56cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Buccaneers | 54c | 54.19$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.26 | 502 | 42.4%213 W · 289 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca6…9a97backed Buccaneers | 46c | 52.82$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Panthers | 54c | 52.82$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.3 | 151 | 44.4%67 W · 84 L | -7.9wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked Panthers | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 297 | 51.5%153 W · 144 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Panthers | 56c | 45.63$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.96 | 544 | 51.7%281 W · 263 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa554…e53dbacked Buccaneers | 44c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf9d…3ea9backed Panthers | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 266 | 60.9%162 W · 104 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe43b…f955backed Panthers | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…d9f6backed Panthers | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd2…2b28backed Panthers | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ada…b8a0backed Panthers | 55c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 68 | 50%34 W · 34 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc36…4642backed Panthers | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Panthers | 79c | 28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 488 | 47.5%232 W · 256 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2d9…0092backed Panthers | 57c | 22.3$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe44a…c4f8backed Panthers | 57c | 21.18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.11 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Buccaneers (-3.5)this page
- Buccaneers vs. PanthersPanthers won
- Buccaneers vs. Panthers: O/U 44.5Under won
- Buccaneers vs. Panthers: O/U 45.5Under won
- Buccaneers vs. Panthers: O/U 46.5Under won
- Spread: Buccaneers (-1.5)Panthers won
- Spread: Buccaneers (-2.5)Panthers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.