NFL · resolved market
Buccaneers vs. Panthers: O/U 44.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x92ff6c26a95394f701fff0878512360679c11727af9e5c3554564a92d2b4b330
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,407
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,567
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,407 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x11e2…26ccbacked Under | 47c | 12,000$5,640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,359.99 | 94 | 42.6%40 W · 54 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over | 51c | 9,000$4,590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,590 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 53c | 4,083$2,164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,163.86 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1433…56a0backed Under | 49c | 2,161$1,059 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,102.23 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Over | 53c | 1,214$643 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$643.42 | 532 | 53%282 W · 250 L | +19.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 49c | 1,144$556 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$588.65 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 47c | 1,099$514 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$584.91 | 758 | 52.5%398 W · 360 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cc7…cf77backed Over | 52c | 961.54$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 81 | 44.4%36 W · 45 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee14…8055backed Under | 46c | 729.63$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$394 | 62 | 50%31 W · 31 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8532…738bbacked Over | 54c | 700$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378 | 119 | 46.2%55 W · 64 L | -5.9wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee20…5b37backed Under | 60c | 687.5$413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275 | 71 | 64.8%46 W · 25 L | +10.7wins | +0.15per pick | 50cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Over | 56c | 578.95$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.4 | 600 | 49.3%296 W · 304 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a7…07cdbacked Over | 54c | 307.9$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.51 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +4.8wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a8…1b66backed Under | 51c | 196.07$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.07 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa60b…c728backed Over | 53c | 180$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.4 | 120 | 57.5%69 W · 51 L | +9.6wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…5ab9backed Under | 46c | 128$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.12 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +4.2wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Over | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 183 | 36.1%66 W · 117 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7690…dfcebacked Over | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 53 | 35.8%19 W · 34 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbda3…ef65backed Over | 50c | 80$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.2 | 137 | 51.8%71 W · 66 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e68…d99bbacked Over | 53c | 77.31$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.97 | 135 | 60%81 W · 54 L | +14.7wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9d30…2645backed Under | 49c | 61$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.11 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f0…327cbacked Under | 49c | 57$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.07 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f91…20ccbacked Under | 50c | 55$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +2.7wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa76e…1dbebacked Over | 55c | 36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 60 | 50%30 W · 30 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09db…7384backed Over | 54c | 36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3add…e482backed Over | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -25%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd62d…02ccbacked Over | 54c | 29.63$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 199 | 54.8%109 W · 90 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9014…db4abacked Over | 53c | 28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 66 | 56.1%37 W · 29 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90f9…e894backed Over | 53c | 28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 67 | 55.2%37 W · 30 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc95f…357fbacked Under | 47c | 23.4$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf9…142bbacked Over | 54c | 23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5253…b898backed Over | 50c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddf6…9bd5backed Over | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 736 | 51.2%377 W · 359 L | +25.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f25…1e6ebacked Over | 54c | 19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Buccaneers vs. Panthers: O/U 44.5this page
- Buccaneers vs. PanthersPanthers won
- Buccaneers vs. Panthers: O/U 45.5Under won
- Buccaneers vs. Panthers: O/U 46.5Under won
- Spread: Buccaneers (-1.5)Panthers won
- Spread: Buccaneers (-2.5)Panthers won
- Spread: Buccaneers (-3.5)Panthers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.