NFL · resolved market
Buccaneers vs. Panthers: O/U 46.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x44f45b837ed084eefce75d19c9489834985ad5b1d7a3164bd43b7128c95325aa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,105
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,195
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,105 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7ef5…325ebacked Over | 48c | 2,000$960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$960 | 111 | 54.1%60 W · 51 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 53c | 1,878$1,004 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$874.69 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Over | 46c | 1,441$663 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$662.86 | 143 | 66.4%95 W · 48 L | +13.0wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 52c | 930.77$484 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$446.77 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee14…8055backed Under | 57c | 550$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.5 | 62 | 50%31 W · 31 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3f…44f1backed Over | 47c | 300$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bf3…6077backed Under | 53c | 300$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141 | 59 | 39%23 W · 36 L | -6.1wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x41ed…1da9backed Over | 20c | 180$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.4 | 107 | 52.3%56 W · 51 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Over | 45c | 155.56$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 280 | 47.5%133 W · 147 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Under | 55c | 155.56$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 192 | 40.1%77 W · 115 L | -16.2wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9da3…a7efbacked Under | 54c | 90.74$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.74 | 120 | 54.2%65 W · 55 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89ad…5e22backed Under | 55c | 81$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.45 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +22%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd52…0c2fbacked Under | 57c | 80$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50fc…ba9abacked Under | 55c | 71$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.95 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x454a…4039backed Under | 55c | 67$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.15 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6919…d27bbacked Over | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacac…bd06backed Over | 45c | 36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3517…9f8dbacked Over | 45c | 35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 61cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd2…2b28backed Under | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a7…07cdbacked Under | 56c | 21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +4.8wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Buccaneers vs. Panthers: O/U 46.5this page
- Buccaneers vs. PanthersPanthers won
- Buccaneers vs. Panthers: O/U 44.5Under won
- Buccaneers vs. Panthers: O/U 45.5Under won
- Spread: Buccaneers (-1.5)Panthers won
- Spread: Buccaneers (-2.5)Panthers won
- Spread: Buccaneers (-3.5)Panthers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.