NFL · resolved market
Colts vs. Seahawks: O/U 42.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd94fa9fc89aa948978819d17934ec80910c45eea739ae69ff50ce4411e2d9e52
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,837
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,849
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,837 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4335…fc2fbacked Under | 53c | 13,000$6,890 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,110 | 111 | 68.5%76 W · 35 L | +18.5wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 47c | 9,523$4,479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,478.76 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Over | 47c | 3,527$1,668 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,668.19 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…01b4backed Under | 52c | 2,724$1,416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,307.4 | 168 | 36.9%62 W · 106 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Under | 53c | 2,500$1,325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,175 | 192 | 40.1%77 W · 115 L | -16.2wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 47c | 2,000$940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$939.99 | 513 | 52.2%268 W · 245 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x827a…8a2bbacked Under | 53c | 1,200$636 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$564 | 155 | 55.5%86 W · 69 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Over | 48c | 1,000$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 172 | 51.7%89 W · 83 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac97…a99ebacked Over | 52c | 1,000$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520 | 392 | 42.6%167 W · 225 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe727…5e8dbacked Over | 48c | 833.33$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 175 | 48%84 W · 91 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Over | 47c | 725$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.75 | 224 | 50%112 W · 112 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e52…9434backed Under | 51c | 652.94$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.94 | 111 | 56.8%63 W · 48 L | +7.7wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb457…b13abacked Over | 48c | 625$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb7c…8eabbacked Over | 52c | 577.36$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 136 | 52.2%71 W · 65 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x182d…73e9backed Over | 52c | 500$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 136 | 41.2%56 W · 80 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 52c | 500$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 650 | 48.3%314 W · 336 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79fb…b4aebacked Over | 48c | 410$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.8 | 89 | 50.6%45 W · 44 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d4e…18debacked Over | 51c | 300$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153 | 117 | 52.1%61 W · 56 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2000…df78backed Over | 47c | 241.11$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.32 | 208 | 51%106 W · 102 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Under | 48c | 207.46$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.88 | 532 | 53%282 W · 250 L | +19.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Under | 49c | 200$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 594 | 53.7%319 W · 275 L | +24.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Over | 48c | 200$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 133 | 47.4%63 W · 70 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1977…32e8backed Under | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 199 | 48.2%96 W · 103 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 47c | 191.21$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.87 | 544 | 51.7%281 W · 263 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 47c | 177.36$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 568 | 52.3%297 W · 271 L | +26.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb12…f057backed Over | 48c | 165.99$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.68 | 87 | 50.6%44 W · 43 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2025…129ebacked Under | 53c | 113.21$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.21 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c9b…a556backed Under | 49c | 111.45$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.84 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe864…ce58backed Under | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 96 | 51%49 W · 47 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ad2…71f8backed Over | 47c | 99.99$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28e7…7384backed Under | 52c | 95$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.62per pick | 39cpaid | +196.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f3d…fadabacked Under | 53c | 83.09$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.09 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe44b…6e0abacked Over | 51c | 70.42$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.6 | 169 | 40.8%69 W · 100 L | -7.9wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46cc…2279backed Over | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee42…721dbacked Over | 48c | 45$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa709…8d1dbacked Over | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fad…aa0fbacked Under | 48c | 31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.12 | 110 | 58.2%64 W · 46 L | +11.0wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6b38…4d61backed Under | 49c | 24.12$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 86 | 53.5%46 W · 40 L | +8.1wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2643…28c2backed Under | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Colts vs. Seahawks: O/U 42.5this page
- Colts vs. SeahawksSeahawks won
- Colts vs. Seahawks: 1H MoneylineColts won
- Colts vs. Seahawks: O/U 41.5Under won
- Colts vs. Seahawks: O/U 43.5Under won
- Spread: Seahawks (-10.5)Colts won
- Spread: Seahawks (-11.5)Colts won
- Spread: Seahawks (-12.5)Colts won
- Spread: Seahawks (-13.5)Colts won
- Spread: Seahawks (-14.5)Colts won
- Spread: Seahawks (-3.5)Colts won
- Spread: Seahawks (-9.5)Colts won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.