NFL · resolved market
Spread: Seahawks (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3c148c9feab9ad175fde238ea367815ef926b6ceb004aa70e1d08e5f70d290c2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Coltsof Seahawks, Colts
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,653
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,634
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,653 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Colts | 64c | 1,966$1,249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$716.71 | 736 | 51.2%377 W · 359 L | +25.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Seahawks | 37c | 1,470$546 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$546.33 | 684 | 46.1%315 W · 369 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Seahawks | 35c | 495.76$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.58 | 502 | 42.4%213 W · 289 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Colts | 61c | 381$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.59 | 758 | 52.5%398 W · 360 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Seahawks | 71c | 376$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.86 | 533 | 48.4%258 W · 275 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Colts | 19c | 352$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.12 | 473 | 48.4%229 W · 244 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce6d…28b5backed Colts | 30c | 272$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.4 | 206 | 50.5%104 W · 102 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Seahawks | 39c | 132.22$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.57 | 356 | 48%171 W · 185 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Colts | 18c | 112.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.34 | 83 | 49.4%41 W · 42 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed7d…5852backed Seahawks | 38c | 105.26$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16d4…6e9bbacked Colts | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Seahawks | 75c | 100$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 194 | 39.2%76 W · 118 L | -11.5wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -16%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Colts | 26c | 77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.98 | 304 | 42.4%129 W · 175 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Seahawks | 60c | 63$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.92 | 647 | 47.3%306 W · 341 L | +42.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Seahawks | 37c | 55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.35 | 276 | 44.2%122 W · 154 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Seahawks | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 294 | 39.5%116 W · 178 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…5c69backed Seahawks | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 51 | 31.4%16 W · 35 L | -8.0wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xda20…0cbebacked Seahawks | 41c | 40.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f06…2614backed Seahawks | 75c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 48 | 60.4%29 W · 19 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Colts | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 207 | 57.5%119 W · 88 L | +17.5wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Seahawks (-3.5)this page
- Colts vs. SeahawksSeahawks won
- Colts vs. Seahawks: 1H MoneylineColts won
- Colts vs. Seahawks: O/U 41.5Under won
- Colts vs. Seahawks: O/U 42.5Under won
- Colts vs. Seahawks: O/U 43.5Under won
- Spread: Seahawks (-10.5)Colts won
- Spread: Seahawks (-11.5)Colts won
- Spread: Seahawks (-12.5)Colts won
- Spread: Seahawks (-13.5)Colts won
- Spread: Seahawks (-14.5)Colts won
- Spread: Seahawks (-9.5)Colts won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.