NFL · resolved market
Spread: Seahawks (-10.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x02356179fc042b401720f49590f0f08876505b753c2ef773798d2e9990a19098
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Coltsof Seahawks, Colts
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,536
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,983
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,536 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Colts | 48c | 10,181$4,871 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,310.62 | 758 | 52.5%398 W · 360 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa25…05e8backed Colts | 46c | 9,617$4,424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,193.43 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Seahawks | 54c | 8,925$4,828 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,828.13 | 473 | 48.4%229 W · 244 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Seahawks | 54c | 6,864$3,707 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,706.56 | 224 | 50%112 W · 112 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Seahawks | 52c | 6,307$3,279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,278.67 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Colts | 45c | 5,936$2,657 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,278.86 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Seahawks | 54c | 1,880$1,015 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,015.43 | 176 | 48.9%86 W · 90 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x698b…4426backed Seahawks | 52c | 1,581$822 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$821.98 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Colts | 48c | 1,575$756 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$819.9 | 544 | 51.7%281 W · 263 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e33…afb3backed Colts | 64c | 1,563$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$562.5 | 59 | 39%23 W · 36 L | -9.4wins | -0.16per pick | 55cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Seahawks | 36c | 1,521$548 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$547.5 | 736 | 51.2%377 W · 359 L | +25.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Seahawks | 53c | 1,500$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 194 | 39.2%76 W · 118 L | -11.5wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -16%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x78ad…45ccbacked Colts | 49c | 1,496$734 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$761.74 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +3.1wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2195…16f9backed Seahawks | 51c | 1,373$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Seahawks | 55c | 963.91$534 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$533.78 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Seahawks | 54c | 662.24$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.9 | 647 | 47.3%306 W · 341 L | +42.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1147…da78backed Colts | 47c | 633$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.49 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Colts | 45c | 469.65$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.99 | 532 | 53%282 W · 250 L | +19.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Colts | 38c | 171.53$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.35 | 502 | 42.4%213 W · 289 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf70…7d5fbacked Seahawks | 58c | 168$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.44 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb89…46f1backed Colts | 49c | 122.87$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.22 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb6…ec60backed Colts | 42c | 109.52$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.52 | 196 | 38.8%76 W · 120 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ae4…1df2backed Colts | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95bc…9f00backed Seahawks | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 129 | 45%58 W · 71 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200e…7d37backed Seahawks | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84ec…daabbacked Colts | 52c | 59.25$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.46 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.5wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Seahawks | 54c | 57.14$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.78 | 160 | 45%72 W · 88 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x490e…6ea7backed Colts | 53c | 52.66$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3888…0755backed Colts | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 98 | 55.1%54 W · 44 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Colts | 40c | 40.55$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.48 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8959…68e2backed Seahawks | 59c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa966…208bbacked Seahawks | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 51 | 66.7%34 W · 17 L | +8.3wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe44a…c4f8backed Seahawks | 58c | 37.44$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.84 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xadd9…8df9backed Seahawks | 54c | 36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd22f…d0eebacked Seahawks | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17d3…9147backed Colts | 42c | 28.74$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.75 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +70.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Colts | 44c | 25.77$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.36 | 342 | 47.4%162 W · 180 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Colts | 41c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 191 | 52.9%101 W · 90 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Seahawks (-10.5)this page
- Colts vs. SeahawksSeahawks won
- Colts vs. Seahawks: 1H MoneylineColts won
- Colts vs. Seahawks: O/U 41.5Under won
- Colts vs. Seahawks: O/U 42.5Under won
- Colts vs. Seahawks: O/U 43.5Under won
- Spread: Seahawks (-11.5)Colts won
- Spread: Seahawks (-12.5)Colts won
- Spread: Seahawks (-13.5)Colts won
- Spread: Seahawks (-14.5)Colts won
- Spread: Seahawks (-3.5)Colts won
- Spread: Seahawks (-9.5)Colts won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.