NFL · resolved market
Spread: Seahawks (-14.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa05cbeb99739c43d2d3adf9a3c502494ecc70a4621d891865732a1a9f53646ab
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Coltsof Seahawks, Colts
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $257,524
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $258,061
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $257,524 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Colts | 55c | 210,028$115,516 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94,512.71 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1496…a429backed Seahawks | 45c | 205,646$92,523 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92,523.3 | 274 | 54.7%150 W · 124 L | +13.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2734…6d9ebacked Colts | 57c | 15,527$8,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,626.64 | 56 | 58.9%33 W · 23 L | +5.1wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Seahawks | 43c | 6,693$2,851 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,851.1 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x226b…cad6backed Seahawks | 43c | 5,000$2,150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,150 | 239 | 37.7%90 W · 149 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb43…3c74backed Seahawks | 45c | 5,000$2,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,250 | 265 | 47.2%125 W · 140 L | +10.4wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45d9…a89abacked Seahawks | 45c | 4,000$1,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,800 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | -5.8wins | -0.16per pick | 39cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Colts | 55c | 3,053$1,667 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,385.88 | 568 | 52.3%297 W · 271 L | +26.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Colts | 55c | 3,000$1,650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,350 | 513 | 52.2%268 W · 245 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf800…f62dbacked Colts | 56c | 2,268$1,270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$997.86 | 53 | 58.5%31 W · 22 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Seahawks | 46c | 1,882$858 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$857.66 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3d6…34e3backed Seahawks | 45c | 1,830$824 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$823.5 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | -3.9wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Seahawks | 14c | 1,443$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.92 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7da6…4ff3backed Seahawks | 44c | 1,300$572 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$571.99 | 75 | 34.7%26 W · 49 L | -9.1wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x57b9…e9b4backed Seahawks | 43c | 1,164$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 105 | 47.6%50 W · 55 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Colts | 56c | 1,146$640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$505.58 | 758 | 52.5%398 W · 360 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2418…66c8backed Seahawks | 42c | 1,047$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$439.95 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Seahawks | 45c | 956.14$427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$427.07 | 650 | 48.3%314 W · 336 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7546…3a91backed Colts | 58c | 929.2$539 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390.26 | 52 | 30.8%16 W · 36 L | -6.2wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4d48…66abbacked Colts | 59c | 847.46$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.46 | 60 | 51.7%31 W · 29 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc4…f44fbacked Seahawks | 45c | 800$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357 | 266 | 48.9%130 W · 136 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4602…3315backed Seahawks | 45c | 666.67$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x258e…d16cbacked Seahawks | 46c | 543.48$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 87 | 47.1%41 W · 46 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Seahawks | 45c | 444.44$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 204 | 43.6%89 W · 115 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Colts | 55c | 276.81$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.52 | 544 | 51.7%281 W · 263 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Colts | 56c | 250$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 243 | 52.7%128 W · 115 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8021…0da8backed Seahawks | 45c | 235.42$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.15 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | +3.7wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24ff…015ebacked Seahawks | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8f8…79a8backed Seahawks | 45c | 208.72$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.92 | 102 | 56.9%58 W · 44 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a87…fb21backed Colts | 56c | 205$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.2 | 203 | 54.7%111 W · 92 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Colts | 56c | 200$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 594 | 53.7%319 W · 275 L | +24.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66fe…e123backed Seahawks | 45c | 199.99$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 104 | 54.8%57 W · 47 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63b3…f676backed Colts | 57c | 176.37$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.84 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03fc…a8e6backed Colts | 57c | 157.05$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.05 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad88…3c1ebacked Colts | 56c | 143.98$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.98 | 125 | 48.8%61 W · 64 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcfe…d420backed Seahawks | 45c | 133.33$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 158 | 55.7%88 W · 70 L | +5.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x209e…8bb4backed Seahawks | 44c | 124.99$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9da3…a7efbacked Colts | 58c | 114.84$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.23 | 120 | 54.2%65 W · 55 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed7d…5852backed Seahawks | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb747…3f1bbacked Seahawks | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3327…11debacked Seahawks | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2953…2ed5backed Seahawks | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 70 | 61.4%43 W · 27 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf936…f310backed Colts | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 67 | 55.2%37 W · 30 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x591a…aec2backed Seahawks | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9efd…30babacked Colts | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.29 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d37…bd48backed Colts | 60c | 75.16$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +67%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7cd…e98dbacked Colts | 58c | 60.04$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.39 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fb8…85b9backed Colts | 57c | 55.69$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.69 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x512f…6a7ebacked Seahawks | 45c | 55.24$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.86 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +6.2wins | +0.21per pick | 49cpaid | +50.1%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Seahawks | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 533 | 48.4%258 W · 275 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Colts | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 532 | 53%282 W · 250 L | +19.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…9748backed Colts | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.64 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0a…a3b9backed Seahawks | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c9f…082bbacked Seahawks | 45c | 41.43$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.64 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 55cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0662…ff81backed Seahawks | 45c | 39.35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.71 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +49.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x022a…df5ebacked Colts | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 188 | 43.1%81 W · 107 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f6e…6a74backed Colts | 58c | 35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 121 | 48.8%59 W · 62 L | -10.7wins | -0.09per pick | 58cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdc7e…302fbacked Seahawks | 45c | 33.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa76e…1dbebacked Colts | 57c | 29.53$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.7 | 60 | 50%30 W · 30 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x651a…9f8fbacked Seahawks | 45c | 26.47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d15…6914backed Colts | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 90 | 54.4%49 W · 41 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Seahawks | 42c | 25.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 194 | 39.2%76 W · 118 L | -11.5wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -16%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef34…1d61backed Colts | 58c | 25.35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.69 | 141 | 58.9%83 W · 58 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd62d…02ccbacked Colts | 58c | 20.69$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.69 | 199 | 54.8%109 W · 90 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Colts | 55c | 20.05$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.94 | 363 | 41.9%152 W · 211 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Seahawks (-14.5)this page
- Colts vs. SeahawksSeahawks won
- Colts vs. Seahawks: 1H MoneylineColts won
- Colts vs. Seahawks: O/U 41.5Under won
- Colts vs. Seahawks: O/U 42.5Under won
- Colts vs. Seahawks: O/U 43.5Under won
- Spread: Seahawks (-10.5)Colts won
- Spread: Seahawks (-11.5)Colts won
- Spread: Seahawks (-12.5)Colts won
- Spread: Seahawks (-13.5)Colts won
- Spread: Seahawks (-3.5)Colts won
- Spread: Seahawks (-9.5)Colts won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.