NFL · resolved market
Spread: Seahawks (-12.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x19bc3ef93d81036495990ab9745e3fdcac11cc126cae73510f15e6621a974c07
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Coltsof Seahawks, Colts
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,584
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,540
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,584 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7ef5…325ebacked Seahawks | 52c | 3,846$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 111 | 54.1%60 W · 51 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cc7…cf77backed Seahawks | 52c | 3,846$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 81 | 44.4%36 W · 45 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Colts | 48c | 3,346$1,606 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,740 | 568 | 52.3%297 W · 271 L | +26.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Colts | 48c | 3,002$1,435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,567.29 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Colts | 48c | 772.27$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$403 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Colts | 44c | 195.36$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.4 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4d…f0b8backed Seahawks | 55c | 189.45$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.2 | 134 | 48.5%65 W · 69 L | -9.4wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb12…f057backed Colts | 48c | 166$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.32 | 87 | 50.6%44 W · 43 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Colts | 48c | 166$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.32 | 205 | 55.6%114 W · 91 L | +15.7wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Colts | 45c | 132.73$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73 | 159 | 52.2%83 W · 76 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x497f…da80backed Seahawks | 52c | 123.87$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.41 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed Colts | 48c | 112$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.24 | 140 | 60.7%85 W · 55 L | +14.3wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4a…8e5dbacked Colts | 48c | 112$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.24 | 176 | 56.3%99 W · 77 L | +16.3wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x15e3…009fbacked Seahawks | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 174 | 59.2%103 W · 71 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb95e…c6d6backed Colts | 48c | 83$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.16 | 112 | 53.6%60 W · 52 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02f7…b17abacked Seahawks | 52c | 75$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 118 | 55.9%66 W · 52 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d58…2073backed Colts | 48c | 74$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.48 | 118 | 59.3%70 W · 48 L | +11.2wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa60b…c728backed Colts | 48c | 62$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.24 | 120 | 57.5%69 W · 51 L | +9.6wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd079…8db3backed Colts | 48c | 62$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.24 | 117 | 58.1%68 W · 49 L | +9.5wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1f…f56bbacked Colts | 48c | 41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.32 | 101 | 55.4%56 W · 45 L | +6.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…c47fbacked Colts | 48c | 41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.32 | 101 | 55.4%56 W · 45 L | +5.9wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c2d…2570backed Colts | 48c | 41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.32 | 96 | 51%49 W · 47 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa48d…b023backed Colts | 48c | 41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.32 | 103 | 59.2%61 W · 42 L | +9.5wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa800…cc71backed Colts | 48c | 41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.32 | 96 | 59.4%57 W · 39 L | +9.2wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +21%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee5…96c2backed Colts | 48c | 41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.32 | 110 | 56.4%62 W · 48 L | +7.9wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2692…2698backed Colts | 48c | 41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.32 | 118 | 56.8%67 W · 51 L | +9.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe5aa…1ebabacked Seahawks | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41ed…1da9backed Colts | 47c | 37.74$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 107 | 52.3%56 W · 51 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ab9…c906backed Seahawks | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +5.0wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +38%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5344…c194backed Colts | 48c | 34.47$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.89 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Colts | 45c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 342 | 47.4%162 W · 180 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b38…4d61backed Colts | 45c | 26.72$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 86 | 53.5%46 W · 40 L | +8.1wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xead3…b125backed Colts | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Seahawks (-12.5)this page
- Colts vs. SeahawksSeahawks won
- Colts vs. Seahawks: 1H MoneylineColts won
- Colts vs. Seahawks: O/U 41.5Under won
- Colts vs. Seahawks: O/U 42.5Under won
- Colts vs. Seahawks: O/U 43.5Under won
- Spread: Seahawks (-10.5)Colts won
- Spread: Seahawks (-11.5)Colts won
- Spread: Seahawks (-13.5)Colts won
- Spread: Seahawks (-14.5)Colts won
- Spread: Seahawks (-3.5)Colts won
- Spread: Seahawks (-9.5)Colts won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.