NFL · resolved market
Spread: Giants (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7b033e5ef1a79387f2e756d7bfa911330f9b17fb24f36eaf463219346d3e8697
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Commandersof Giants, Commanders
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $199,103
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $200,213
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $199,103 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Commanders | 48c | 99,534$47,610 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51,924.17 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2cc…0cbcbacked Giants | 52c | 83,798$43,575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43,574.95 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4335…fc2fbacked Commanders | 48c | 44,444$21,333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23,110.88 | 111 | 68.5%76 W · 35 L | +18.5wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…3532backed Giants | 52c | 41,891$21,783 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21,783.2 | 312 | 40.7%127 W · 185 L | -22.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed Giants | 52c | 27,096$14,141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,141.2 | 249 | 57%142 W · 107 L | +12.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16b1…968abacked Commanders | 49c | 10,000$4,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,100 | 79 | 39.2%31 W · 48 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1a…0df6backed Giants | 54c | 6,940$3,733 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,732.54 | 168 | 60.7%102 W · 66 L | +18.7wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Giants | 52c | 5,175$2,689 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,688.51 | 473 | 48.4%229 W · 244 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Commanders | 49c | 5,104$2,501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,603 | 736 | 51.2%377 W · 359 L | +25.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43fd…99a7backed Giants | 54c | 4,630$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500.2 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa315…cabbbacked Commanders | 48c | 4,100$1,964 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,135.99 | 284 | 47.5%135 W · 149 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3d…55b3backed Commanders | 48c | 3,016$1,448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,568.32 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 50cpaid | +102.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5672…5019backed Commanders | 49c | 2,041$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,040.82 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | -4.3wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Giants | 53c | 1,770$933 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$932.97 | 533 | 48.4%258 W · 275 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Commanders | 46c | 1,372$631 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$740.44 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e52…9434backed Giants | 52c | 1,346$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 111 | 56.8%63 W · 48 L | +7.7wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Commanders | 48c | 972$468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$503.74 | 81 | 46.9%38 W · 43 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb973…ff16backed Giants | 53c | 943.4$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd10a…c514backed Commanders | 47c | 871.89$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$462.1 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 45cpaid | +55.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8eb1…0812backed Commanders | 49c | 616.67$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.67 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -5.4wins | -0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Commanders | 48c | 511.92$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.89 | 650 | 48.3%314 W · 336 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Giants | 53c | 505$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.25 | 758 | 52.5%398 W · 360 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf819…d410backed Commanders | 50c | 500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x544e…2d9fbacked Commanders | 48c | 443$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.36 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6036…d2ccbacked Commanders | 48c | 417$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.84 | 121 | 51.2%62 W · 59 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Commanders | 48c | 416.67$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.67 | 204 | 43.6%89 W · 115 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd6f…e887backed Commanders | 51c | 400$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Commanders | 60c | 391.17$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.77 | 502 | 42.4%213 W · 289 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe727…5e8dbacked Giants | 52c | 384.62$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 175 | 48%84 W · 91 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ca…a175backed Giants | 50c | 329$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.5 | 257 | 44.4%114 W · 143 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Commanders | 49c | 327$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.77 | 304 | 42.4%129 W · 175 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Giants | 13c | 273$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.49 | 600 | 49.3%296 W · 304 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7681…ac03backed Commanders | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 105 | 37.1%39 W · 66 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc89d…5909backed Commanders | 48c | 200$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 92 | 48.9%45 W · 47 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c47…8d6dbacked Giants | 53c | 178.77$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.75 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Commanders | 48c | 155.14$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.67 | 320 | 50.9%163 W · 157 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf10b…2041backed Commanders | 53c | 150.82$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.82 | 110 | 54.5%60 W · 50 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa59…dbf6backed Commanders | 49c | 121$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd79c…a0e7backed Giants | 54c | 111.11$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 85 | 40%34 W · 51 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd52d…412dbacked Giants | 52c | 105.77$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 121 | 41.3%50 W · 71 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15e3…009fbacked Commanders | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 174 | 59.2%103 W · 71 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe864…ce58backed Giants | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 96 | 51%49 W · 47 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf782…6849backed Giants | 50c | 99.22$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.18 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x983a…ac6bbacked Commanders | 48c | 90$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.8 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a87…fb21backed Commanders | 49c | 85$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.28 | 203 | 54.7%111 W · 92 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb545…6e0abacked Commanders | 50c | 80$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3bec…6997backed Commanders | 46c | 44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.76 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.7wins | +0.19per pick | 52cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x022a…df5ebacked Commanders | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 188 | 43.1%81 W · 107 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6470…aac7backed Giants | 52c | 42.31$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | -4.4wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x70a1…978abacked Commanders | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 51 | 64.7%33 W · 18 L | +8.3wins | +0.16per pick | 49cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xedb5…ce8ebacked Commanders | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x445e…9be0backed Giants | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 266 | 50.8%135 W · 131 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc7c…666cbacked Giants | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc95f…357fbacked Commanders | 47c | 36.17$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.17 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbcee…efd3backed Giants | 52c | 28.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8bc…e371backed Commanders | 49c | 27.69$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf917…0482backed Giants | 52c | 26.17$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.61 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8304…c51fbacked Giants | 53c | 26.09$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.83 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd73a…cdd1backed Commanders | 48c | 26.08$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.56 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6889…875dbacked Commanders | 49c | 25.88$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15f6…045bbacked Giants | 52c | 25.83$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.43 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba16…4cacbacked Giants | 52c | 25.19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Giants | 51c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 363 | 41.9%152 W · 211 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb870…0708backed Commanders | 49c | 24.65$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x718e…f77bbacked Commanders | 49c | 24.16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.32 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb83d…140fbacked Giants | 52c | 23.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b6e…f2ecbacked Giants | 53c | 23.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2aea…9f4dbacked Commanders | 49c | 23.16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.81 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2643…28c2backed Commanders | 49c | 23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.73 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03f0…db3abacked Giants | 52c | 22.94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…d9f6backed Commanders | 48c | 22.92$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.92 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d67…ae9fbacked Commanders | 49c | 21.8$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.12 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d0e…4049backed Commanders | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x027b…def1backed Giants | 52c | 19.83$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3be0…e4e5backed Giants | 54c | 19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Giants (-2.5)this page
- Commanders vs. GiantsCommanders won
- Commanders vs. Giants: 1H MoneylineCommanders won
- Commanders vs. Giants: O/U 45.5Over won
- Commanders vs. Giants: O/U 46.5Over won
- Commanders vs. Giants: O/U 47.5Over won
- Commanders vs. Giants: O/U 50.5Under won
- Commanders vs. Giants: O/U 56.5Under won
- Spread: Commanders (-1.5)Commanders won
- Spread: Commanders (-2.5)Commanders won
- Spread: Commanders (-3.5)Commanders won
- Spread: Giants (-1.5)Commanders won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.