NFL · resolved market
Commanders vs. Giants: O/U 45.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x87e2ab912b473dc6d863d9a7354a8b21e96d7756b681e1e4bfed110e26e1c898
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,023
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,027
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,023 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xefc9…b337backed Over | 52c | 10,000$5,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,800 | 97 | 54.6%53 W · 44 L | +9.1wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +13%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 49c | 10,000$4,860 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,860 | 568 | 52.3%297 W · 271 L | +26.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 48c | 6,567$3,146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,145.79 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x201c…58bfbacked Over | 51c | 5,000$2,550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,450 | 74 | 64.9%48 W · 26 L | +9.8wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Over | 52c | 3,340$1,737 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,603.2 | 206 | 61.2%126 W · 80 L | +12.3wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x94d9…870ebacked Over | 51c | 2,154$1,099 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,055.6 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e2…4e99backed Under | 48c | 1,871$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8532…738bbacked Over | 53c | 660$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.2 | 119 | 46.2%55 W · 64 L | -5.9wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Under | 48c | 401.72$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.72 | 532 | 53%282 W · 250 L | +19.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Under | 48c | 329$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.55 | 205 | 55.6%114 W · 91 L | +15.7wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked Under | 48c | 287$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.18 | 169 | 57.4%97 W · 72 L | +15.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8d4e…18debacked Over | 51c | 250$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.5 | 117 | 52.1%61 W · 56 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed Under | 48c | 222$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.66 | 140 | 60.7%85 W · 55 L | +14.3wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4a…8e5dbacked Under | 48c | 222$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.66 | 176 | 56.3%99 W · 77 L | +16.3wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbc…9cf6backed Under | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 75 | 50.7%38 W · 37 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb95e…c6d6backed Under | 48c | 164$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.53 | 112 | 53.6%60 W · 52 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d58…2073backed Under | 48c | 147$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.29 | 118 | 59.3%70 W · 48 L | +11.2wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x581b…0290backed Under | 47c | 133$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.51 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa60b…c728backed Under | 48c | 123$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.65 | 120 | 57.5%69 W · 51 L | +9.6wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd079…8db3backed Under | 48c | 123$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.65 | 117 | 58.1%68 W · 49 L | +9.5wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x15e3…009fbacked Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 174 | 59.2%103 W · 71 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41ed…1da9backed Under | 49c | 85.26$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.78 | 107 | 52.3%56 W · 51 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1f…f56bbacked Under | 48c | 81$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.28 | 101 | 55.4%56 W · 45 L | +6.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…c47fbacked Under | 48c | 81$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.28 | 101 | 55.4%56 W · 45 L | +5.9wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c2d…2570backed Under | 48c | 81$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.28 | 96 | 51%49 W · 47 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa48d…b023backed Under | 48c | 81$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.28 | 103 | 59.2%61 W · 42 L | +9.5wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa800…cc71backed Under | 48c | 81$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.28 | 96 | 59.4%57 W · 39 L | +9.2wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +21%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa620…ca56backed Under | 48c | 81$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.28 | 97 | 57.7%56 W · 41 L | +7.9wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee5…96c2backed Under | 48c | 81$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.28 | 110 | 56.4%62 W · 48 L | +7.9wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2692…2698backed Under | 48c | 81$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.28 | 118 | 56.8%67 W · 51 L | +9.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 50c | 80$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…2f86backed Over | 53c | 49$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.03 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd595…7893backed Over | 53c | 47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.09 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbda3…ef65backed Over | 52c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 137 | 51.8%71 W · 66 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ecd…b2c0backed Over | 53c | 37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.39 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…9b95backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 148 | 48%71 W · 77 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Commanders vs. Giants: O/U 45.5this page
- Commanders vs. GiantsCommanders won
- Commanders vs. Giants: 1H MoneylineCommanders won
- Commanders vs. Giants: O/U 46.5Over won
- Commanders vs. Giants: O/U 47.5Over won
- Commanders vs. Giants: O/U 50.5Under won
- Commanders vs. Giants: O/U 56.5Under won
- Spread: Commanders (-1.5)Commanders won
- Spread: Commanders (-2.5)Commanders won
- Spread: Commanders (-3.5)Commanders won
- Spread: Giants (-1.5)Commanders won
- Spread: Giants (-2.5)Commanders won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.