NFL · resolved market
Commanders vs. Giants: O/U 46.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfd8e12d3a6aa1106f9d9aeefd33c287fbf3533ff373de326e25c2587cb7216a8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $84,072
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $85,888
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $84,072 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Under | 52c | 26,285$13,613 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,613.05 | 191 | 52.9%101 W · 90 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…3532backed Over | 48c | 21,481$10,311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,170.01 | 312 | 40.7%127 W · 185 L | -22.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Over | 49c | 10,000$4,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,100 | 358 | 48.6%174 W · 184 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over | 48c | 10,000$4,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,200 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9249…4f16backed Under | 51c | 9,990$5,095 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,094.99 | 176 | 47.7%84 W · 92 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 52c | 9,000$4,680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,680 | 513 | 52.2%268 W · 245 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb530…4422backed Over | 50c | 8,200$4,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,099.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb43…3c74backed Over | 49c | 6,500$3,185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,314.99 | 265 | 47.2%125 W · 140 L | +10.4wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f0…72b0backed Over | 50c | 6,000$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,000 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6cf…0e3ebacked Under | 50c | 6,000$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8069…22cdbacked Under | 50c | 5,600$2,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,800 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 51c | 5,394$2,756 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,756.31 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Over | 53c | 5,030$2,666 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,363.49 | 176 | 48.9%86 W · 90 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Under | 47c | 5,009$2,354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,354.14 | 212 | 54.2%115 W · 97 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa849…c825backed Over | 49c | 5,000$2,450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,550 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc58d…9373backed Under | 52c | 3,357$1,745 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,745.48 | 92 | 45.7%42 W · 50 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Over | 48c | 3,340$1,603 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,736.79 | 206 | 61.2%126 W · 80 L | +12.3wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0496…f985backed Under | 50c | 2,591$1,296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,295.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…0a77backed Under | 52c | 2,115$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5672…5019backed Under | 52c | 1,936$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | -4.3wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2418…66c8backed Over | 47c | 1,769$831 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$937.51 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Under | 53c | 1,361$721 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$721.09 | 532 | 53%282 W · 250 L | +19.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x094e…f10bbacked Over | 49c | 555$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.05 | 74 | 44.6%33 W · 41 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 48c | 500$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260 | 650 | 48.3%314 W · 336 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Over | 47c | 400$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212 | 180 | 44.4%80 W · 100 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…f8bebacked Over | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 194 | 59.3%115 W · 79 L | +15.6wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6036…d2ccbacked Under | 52c | 385$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.2 | 121 | 51.2%62 W · 59 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd3…c066backed Under | 50c | 235.4$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.7 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | -7.8wins | -0.17per pick | 53cpaid | -34%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc443…7046backed Over | 51c | 220$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.8 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf4c8…2399backed Under | 51c | 218$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.18 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa395…a298backed Over | 50c | 218$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 51cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5440…369ebacked Under | 51c | 210$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.1 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Under | 50c | 205.02$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.9 | 553 | 45%249 W · 304 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50bb…9aa6backed Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x215b…3e6cbacked Over | 48c | 200$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcee1…a27cbacked Over | 50c | 177$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe302…ad65backed Under | 51c | 177$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.27 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeaef…56aebacked Over | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.17 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe864…ce58backed Under | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 96 | 51%49 W · 47 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 242 | 43.4%105 W · 137 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaef4…5355backed Under | 51c | 98$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c0…07d8backed Under | 51c | 76$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.76 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…3534backed Over | 48c | 72.92$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.92 | 158 | 55.7%88 W · 70 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 48c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 342 | 47.4%162 W · 180 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a90…324bbacked Over | 50c | 51$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d5e…ca99backed Under | 52c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -2.7wins | -0.14per pick | 30cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1760…c4edbacked Over | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fed…0d78backed Under | 51c | 32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2953…2ed5backed Under | 61c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 70 | 61.4%43 W · 27 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Over | 39c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 600 | 49.3%296 W · 304 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x161c…3b03backed Over | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3bc9…801ebacked Over | 49c | 29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.79 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.36per pick | 39cpaid | +67.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd6…6202backed Under | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 67 | 37.3%25 W · 42 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b38…4d61backed Under | 48c | 27.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 86 | 53.5%46 W · 40 L | +8.1wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xac7a…414fbacked Under | 50c | 25.88$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.94 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 48c | 22.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 149 | 52.3%78 W · 71 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ef9…b5bfbacked Over | 49c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.22 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef54…c997backed Over | 52c | 21.03$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.09 | 105 | 48.6%51 W · 54 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480a…429fbacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2643…28c2backed Under | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Commanders vs. Giants: O/U 46.5this page
- Commanders vs. GiantsCommanders won
- Commanders vs. Giants: 1H MoneylineCommanders won
- Commanders vs. Giants: O/U 45.5Over won
- Commanders vs. Giants: O/U 47.5Over won
- Commanders vs. Giants: O/U 50.5Under won
- Commanders vs. Giants: O/U 56.5Under won
- Spread: Commanders (-1.5)Commanders won
- Spread: Commanders (-2.5)Commanders won
- Spread: Commanders (-3.5)Commanders won
- Spread: Giants (-1.5)Commanders won
- Spread: Giants (-2.5)Commanders won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.