NFL · resolved market
Commanders vs. Giants: O/U 47.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb86166166cfcf03ff823dfb6c22a278546ed66a261d7caf7c1b789a9b4cfcd79
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,549
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,549
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,549 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Over | 45c | 446$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.3 | 143 | 66.4%95 W · 48 L | +13.0wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x182d…73e9backed Under | 56c | 400$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224 | 136 | 41.2%56 W · 80 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb81d…c6c0backed Under | 56c | 118$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.08 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.14per pick | 50cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf10b…2041backed Under | 54c | 112.04$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 110 | 54.5%60 W · 50 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 44c | 111.98$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.67 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8a3…a380backed Under | 55c | 102$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.1 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9da3…a7efbacked Under | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 120 | 54.2%65 W · 55 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6132…7665backed Under | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x042e…f947backed Over | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fad…aa0fbacked Over | 46c | 49.5$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.73 | 110 | 58.2%64 W · 46 L | +11.0wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5266…ddaebacked Over | 44c | 48$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.88 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08a7…e161backed Over | 44c | 47$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.32 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa709…8d1dbacked Under | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92bf…0297backed Over | 45c | 36$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2e5…ebeabacked Under | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 196 | 51.5%101 W · 95 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc6…6043backed Under | 54c | 32.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.24per pick | 36cpaid | -71%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4a…8e5dbacked Over | 46c | 30.04$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.22 | 176 | 56.3%99 W · 77 L | +16.3wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1a…ad50backed Over | 45c | 29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.95 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90f9…e894backed Over | 48c | 27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 67 | 55.2%37 W · 30 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3bc9…801ebacked Over | 45c | 26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.3 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.36per pick | 39cpaid | +67.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd67a…304cbacked Over | 45c | 23$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.65 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2348…9d10backed Over | 44c | 23$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc5d…be79backed Over | 45c | 23$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.65 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Over | 47c | 21.52$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.44 | 532 | 53%282 W · 250 L | +19.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Over | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 684 | 46.1%315 W · 369 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Commanders vs. Giants: O/U 47.5this page
- Commanders vs. GiantsCommanders won
- Commanders vs. Giants: 1H MoneylineCommanders won
- Commanders vs. Giants: O/U 45.5Over won
- Commanders vs. Giants: O/U 46.5Over won
- Commanders vs. Giants: O/U 50.5Under won
- Commanders vs. Giants: O/U 56.5Under won
- Spread: Commanders (-1.5)Commanders won
- Spread: Commanders (-2.5)Commanders won
- Spread: Commanders (-3.5)Commanders won
- Spread: Giants (-1.5)Commanders won
- Spread: Giants (-2.5)Commanders won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.