MLB · resolved market
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x089c44de309af586a0d25514d58dae6803fdee99d7b72f5c24f1d2220d673418
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,265
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,346
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,265 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9249…4f16backed Under | 46c | 23,584$10,849 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,848.63 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Over | 54c | 15,852$8,561 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,290.74 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x683a…274ebacked Over | 39c | 3,799$1,478 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,321.4 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | +5.9wins | +0.13per pick | 31cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Over | 54c | 3,284$1,773 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,510.64 | 631 | 52.6%332 W · 299 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…9054backed Over | 54c | 3,116$1,683 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,433.56 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4335…fc2fbacked Over | 44c | 2,896$1,284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,611.98 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe6…ab9dbacked Under | 56c | 2,000$1,120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,120 | 237 | 52.7%125 W · 112 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Under | 45c | 1,886$849 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$849.12 | 115 | 51.3%59 W · 56 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 62c | 1,326$823 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$822.79 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 63c | 1,098$694 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$403.92 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb43…9d70backed Over | 54c | 925.93$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425.93 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1126…4e82backed Under | 54c | 790.96$424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$423.81 | 600 | 52.2%313 W · 287 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f8e…b232backed Over | 55c | 727.79$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.79 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Under | 60c | 695.29$415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$414.6 | 784 | 45.3%355 W · 429 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83ce…1778backed Over | 39c | 580$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.8 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe880…de2dbacked Over | 54c | 370.37$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.37 | 84 | 54.8%46 W · 38 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4483…c565backed Over | 55c | 363.64$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.64 | 257 | 51.8%133 W · 124 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked Under | 47c | 200$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | -3.8wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7db3…77ccbacked Over | 44c | 198.52$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.17 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79fb…b4aebacked Over | 55c | 193.5$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.07 | 115 | 50.4%58 W · 57 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7541…09d1backed Over | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 67 | 38.8%26 W · 41 L | -5.5wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -18%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x013b…01cfbacked Over | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.41 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Over | 61c | 169$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.91 | 519 | 53.2%276 W · 243 L | -24.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d7f…9485backed Over | 26c | 126.34$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.49 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +161.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c6d…e289backed Over | 66c | 121.13$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.13 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c1…012cbacked Over | 55c | 104$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.8 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Over | 32c | 102.42$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.2 | 731 | 49.4%361 W · 370 L | +23.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x515b…2d91backed Under | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d4e…18debacked Over | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37f7…13a2backed Over | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +77.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb5dd…b094backed Over | 54c | 85$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4aae…d563backed Under | 71c | 70.42$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.3wins | -0.45per pick | 65cpaid | -72.7%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6894…59d8backed Over | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 258 | 54.3%140 W · 118 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f1f…0b36backed Over | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +3.4wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +65.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x12c4…ff8cbacked Over | 34c | 49.98$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.98 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5937…cc97backed Over | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.45 | 41 | 73.2%30 W · 11 L | +7.2wins | +0.17per pick | 56cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x369e…d016backed Under | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 115 | 60.9%70 W · 45 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62e2…7b24backed Over | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc47e…8ae4backed Under | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcda0…a51abacked Over | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 96 | 51%49 W · 47 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5this page
- Dodgers vs. Blue JaysDodgers won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.